There have been some outstanding tales of engagements along the frontline in recent weeks, that show just how much experience and training, along with initiative have made so much difference to Ukrainian forces.
The ability to engage the enemy, maximise the effectiveness of limited forces against often very high numbers of vehicles, then escape intact while destroying the enemy, are so frequent and often daring they could easily be overlooked.
The scale of this war in appearance is like WW1. Yet the reality is there is little contact if any along a third of the frontline at any one time no. The war is concentrated in some areas while others are lightly defended or manned.
Ukraine has become adept at defending key points with mines and observational drones, creating wide zones of control that narrow the path of attacks to predictable routes, usually under Ukrainian fire control.
They also use tanks for example, in ways we in the west would never have considered operationally viable. But we would have air cover and drones have changed the way they operate dramatically.
There have been several instances where in one case a single Leopard 2A4 was able to sit in waiting and reduced an entire Russian convoy of 18 vehicles to scrap. It’s key to success was the position it chose – slightly higher, but surrounded by bushes on three sides, on a bend in the road.
The bushes provided anti-drone protection preventing them coming in from the sides or rear where they try and get under the turret rim.
Another recent encounter saw a pair of Leopards take out an entire Russian convoy on an attack run. Both hid in bushes and used their carefully selected positions in culverts to take out the entire attack group of nearly 20 vehicles. The Russians were using drones to try and attack one of the tanks but it used smoke and EW to retreat under covering fire of the other. The drone then went for the other tank but couldn’t find a pathway in because of the culvert and bushes, additionally it started losing radio connection because of the choice of terrain. EW kicked in, smoke was used and the drone lost contact. Before it regained control the tanks had gone.
This contrasts to the complete lack of imagination often used by the Russians. Standardised tactics, columns of troops and vehicles in line, heading straight into a defended position knowing there will be chronic losses.
Worse still is the way commanders lie to their HQ about their successes and allow new actions to go ahead based on lies and misinformation.
This happened recently in Kursk over three or four days, resulting in the arrest of a whole group of field commanders and two generals. A similar type of incident occurred north of Pokrovsk.
The pressure on Russians to reach targets on time and the consequences of not doing so are so severe they lie to cover up failure. The lies roll on and they fail again to deliver HQ’s next objectives and eventually the lies become unsustainable. The fact they would rather lie and risk disaster later, in some vein hope they might manage what they were ordered to do, smacks of fear and desperation. That’s no way to run an effective army. In one case it ended an entire offensive operation.
Ukraine spends time training its troops and giving them the basic+ skills to start their time with some knowledge. Sadly they don’t always have all the equipment they need but self equipment and donations do a lot to help.
The core of Ukraine’s army is experienced and long term soldiers who have seen more than anyone should see in the past 1002 days.
Russian loses in the past week were over 11,750. Many of them little more than canon fodder. It’s a staggering rate of deaths. Yet nobody is talking about them in Russia. They are merely a statistic. A number to be replaced to maintain momentum.
Yet there are elements of the Russian army that have gained experience, inevitably some soldiers survive for longer. Yet they are genuinely so few it rarely passes a year.
Let’s remember that the Russians have lost the equivalent of all of the men currently in the field. Some 700,000 troops in all areas are in Ukraine or along its border, or involved in the war in Russia. That means the war has so far taken up 1,400,000 Russian men.
Ukraine’s losses are unpublished but believed to be approaching 200,000.
Only quality, experience, training and the appreciation of human life have kept Ukrainian numbers down. The contrast is clear.
The Ukrainian soldier is generally a volunteer and a warrior. They don’t want to be there but they will not give their country to Russia, or surrender their families to the terror of Russian occupation. They have a cause worth fighting for and that’s why we support them. They fight too, for us.
The contrast between these armies is shockingly clear. Ukraine is struggling against Russia’s willingness to slaughter its men for a tree line or a street. The Russians advance almost everywhere they push at some point. It’s incremental but expensive. It’s persuaded the Russians they’re winning and what they’re doing is right tactically. They won’t stop doing it now.
Ukraine must carry on killing them at a rate close to 7:1 just to stay still. It’s a gruesome statistic.
My admiration for the Ukrainians is beyond explanation.
‘The Analyst’
Slava Ukraine
The Military Analyst 