PUTIN CARRIES ON REGARDLESS

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Think of yourself in Putin’s mind for just one second….

He never expected the new administration to so violently turn on Ukraine and President Zelensky. You could hear the champagne corks popping in Moscow. Until yesterday, in the middle of a presser with Keir Starmer, just two days after Emmanuel Macron had sat in the same seat making it clear to 47’s face that Ukraine and Zelensky were not what 47 had said they were. By the time Starmer had repeated it, 47 when asked ‘do you still think President Zelensky is a dictator?’, replied, ‘Did I say that? I don’t think I said that. Next question…’

It was classic 47. He’d said what he’d said about Zelensky because one of his hardliners like Musk or some other wack job, had gone on about it and it was the last thing he heard. Now, with the two most powerful European leaders traipsing through his office reminding him of their views, all of Europe’s and the so called ‘free world’s’ views, he was finally hearing what was being said and changed tack.

In Moscow the party was suddenly over again.

The discussions in Saudi Arabia had been more about re-establishing contact – which has in essence fallen to a tiny spot just above zero. Russians set a lot of store by it, the Americans said a great deal, suggested a great deal. More talks in Istanbul on the following Thursday were nothing to do with Ukraine but about re-manning each other’s embassies, currently operating on little more than skeleton staff after years of expulsions for ‘unacceptable activities’ and the tit for tat counter-expulsions. It’s just a game you know.

Suddenly if you sit in Moscow, there’s been a lot of bluster, but nothing concrete. The only achievement of 47’s presidency so far is to shake the European Governments out of their stupor and actually wake them up. Suddenly they’re willing to act independently, in a unified way and are even talking of propping Ukraine up ‘until victory’. The French are talking of placing nuclear armed aircraft in eastern Germany, buying more fighters, frigates, the British, the Germans, are spending more on defence, everyone else is looking at or doing the same thing. It was never meant to be like this. This wasn’t what Putin planned in 2021/22.

Of course the good thing is that any more talk of that stupid ‘rules based order’ is out of the window. But what else has Putin got for all of this? The sanctions haven’t been lifted or even been discussed. It’s the Americans ace card after all. Both sides have dangled the prospect of resuming trade, mining rights, all the glorious things that might profit both sides if everything went back to normal and the war ends. If.

And yet…nothing has, in reality, changed. And what of the war? It’s cold out there. The army is using donkeys and horses like it did in WW2 to get supplies to the front. There’s no one to make any trucks faster. Nobody can be persuaded anymore to go and fight despite the huge pay and bonuses. The army keeps saying there’s a manpower shortage, that the prisons are almost empty. The public think Russia’s winning, yet the the inflation rate is well above the official rate of 10.1%, interest rates are artificially set at 21% because Putin refused to let them go up any higher. The ruble exchange rate is entirely fake, and in reality it’s a basket case currency. The labour shortages are severe.

Ukraine has finally been driven out of Kursk, it took a massive operation and new drones and a specialized regiment to break them. The cost has been horrible, even the N.Korean troops Russia paid for didn’t cut it. It’s so embarrassing.

The main offensive has pretty much culminated, everybody is dead where it matters, the Ukrainians are even counter attacking and taking back some land. Yes, there are advances here and there but at this rate it’ll be another two years, maybe longer.

Maybe if they hit more civilians with heavier drones ? They’ve got bigger warheads now, 90kg instead of 30kg. Russia’s making twice as many, but then again they’re shooting down twice as many. And then there’s the oil refineries and the pipelines, and the ammunition depots, and what happened to all of that artillery? Ten to one Russia had, now it’s two to one they say.

If Russia signs an armistice deal, then the Ukrainians will just re-arm and build even more powerful defences. Of course Russia will too, but Ukraine knows how to defend themselves, it will be even more difficult next time if Russia lets that happen, it might be impossible. It’ll be even more expensive and Russia will be right back to square one, trapped in a long war it can’t win. And the Europeans won’t just sit there like they did last time.

Maybe Russia can win this one? If they just keep at it, they’re so far in right now, they may as well go for broke. It’s now or never right? Then again they’ve got so much of Ukraine and there’s no way they’d hand back Crimea, maybe we should just settle? What will they do with all those demobilised soldiers, spreading their lies about poor conditions at the front, telling their families how bad it was?

If Putin settles that might mean NATO coordinated peacekeepers in Ukraine, near the border. That sounds bad. That looks weak. Maybe we can convince 47 it’s all Ukraine’s’ fault because we never started it, but now he’s saying he might not be able to get a peace deal? What the hell is he doing? Is he real, it’s like talking to a toddler, ‘over here Donny’ then someone else calls him back the other way.

If Russia carry’s on the economy might collapse, they can’t keep printing money, stoking inflation. But if Russia say’s we’ll carry on and pretend, the Americans might come back with a deal?

And as for the deal they’re offering? What a joke. They cannot be serious. They know our position, the Ukrainians will never accept it so I suppose Russia has to carry on. 47 is such an easy mark, so desperate he might actually make the Ukrainians give in on something we can go with. But not enough. Russia has few choices, if its stopped half way through its efforts to end Ukraine it’s a Phyrric victory. It’s going to destroy us domestically for nothing much. Everyone west of the front line and our borders hates us. And now they’re rearming too.

Putin didn’t know what to do. But now he does. Because Putin is a pragmatist, he’ll stick to what he’s doing rather risk anything that might be dangerous to the overall concept. At the same time he has to keep everyone wondering if he might just agree to something – and that keeps the Americans dashing back and forth trying to find a way round it. Just keep blaming Ukraine, make it look like they’re being unreasonable.

Eventually the Americans will get bored with it and say they tried. Then Russia just carries on and with any luck the Americans will normalize relations even if they don’t lift sanctions straight away. That matters more, much more.

So after mulling what to do, the solution is carry on, pretend to seek a solution but make it that the solution is the same one its always been, and that’s unacceptable, so we carry on the fight.

Because if Russia doesn’t finish this, this time, it’s not going to get a second chance. The war must go on. Putin seems to have made his choice.

The Analyst

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