UKRAINE’S COUNTER ATTACKS GAIN MOMENTUM

With the talk of peace rumbling as the Americans are repeatedly duped by the Russians – whose tactics are everything we all knew they would be – stalling for time and making increasing demands, the frontline has been active.

Ukraine appointed a new commanding officer to the Pokrovsk front, Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi, who seems to have made some key decisions, using a mix of elite units to break initial Russian defences in key positions. This is then followed up by a mix of recently deployed units that have had some combat experience, working with older more experienced units. This has allowed experience to be passed on, and mistakes avoided when engaging the Russians, which in turn, minimizes Ukrainian losses.

The surgical nature of these operations, outstanding advance planning, flexibility delegated to NCO’s in the field, backup from artillery and sophisticated use of drones and electronic warfare, have enabled notable advances to be made against key Russian positions.

By driving the Russians out of their recent gains, and taking back higher ground and defensible positions Ukraine has managed to weaken the Pokrovsk front – notable for its lack of logistics support and towns to base backup forces in, endangering the Russian positions. The Russians seem short on supplies and manpower and their reaction to being attacked is not their most robust. They clearly have morale problems. recently they were seen using large numbers of Lada cars to get to the front, clearly having run short of APC’s like the MT-LB, which according to most satellite open net sources, now seems to have vanished completely from reserves and there are few in service. Its a similar tale both the BTR types in terms of reserves but there are still a fair few in service. Either way, Russia seems unable to replace their losses.

For the first time in well over a year, probably longer, we are seeing Ukrainian counter attacks regaining small but important areas of ground along most of the eastern front, and this operation into Belgorod Oblast inside Russia seems to be making gains against quite heavy Russian resistance. I suspect the strategy for this is to keep the Russian forces in Kursk occupied and unable to leave – the last thing Ukraine needs now is them turning up reinforcing the Toretsk or Pokrovsk sectors.

Even around the Kupyansk area Ukraine has made some small gains.

At Chasiv Yar there’s been no Russian movement for some time and the Ukrainians seem to have contained the threat there at present.

At Toretsk the almost complete control of that city by Russia, gained at huge cost has suddenly become an entirely flexible Urban battlefield. The Ukrainians have been happy to flex and bend taking ground, then letting the Russians take back sections while Ukraine reappears somewhere else – almost like a strategic whack-a-mole. This is new for the Russians who tend to advance, consolidate, advance. This degree of mobility and surprise is not what they’re used to.

Yesterday it was confirmed that Ukraine had driven out a large wedge of Russian forces south of the city, in what appears to be a sudden rout. the Ukrainians also exported that the most senior local Russian commander for Toretsk was sacked for making insufficient progress. Always a good way to instill some fighting spirit – terrify the crap out of your officers and make them even more fearful.

Both of these points have been showing a great deal of Russian weakness for some time. What are they doing about it? Almost nothing substantive, they just don’t have the reserves or the equipment. The scale of their operations – an ongoing offensive that’s lasted almost a year, finally seems to be revealing the full level of exhaustion it was inevitably going to create. Russians are complaining widely that their drones are rubbish and frequently malfunction or just don’t work and that State money is being wasted on them.

The Ukrainians have also had success west of Svatove, taking back a fair chunk of land from the enemy.

Ukrainian reports that the Russians have a 10:1 manpower advantage north of Lyman and that these troops are technically well trained contract soldiers may be a warning of some kind of future operation.

No doubt the Russian military isn’t being as honest as it should be – potentially causing over confidence in Moscow as to what they can demand. If Ukraine can miraculously collapse the Pokrovsk salient it would make a ceasefire very much more likely very quickly.

F-16 Use has been repeatedly noted in the past week. These have been a long time coming among but there were two issues. Firstly their numbers were few and the number of trained pilots who needed more operational experience was low. Secondly more have now arrived – it seems the entire Dutch supplied force is now in use, in conjunction with around half of the Mirage 2000F5’s. This has enabled the Ukrainians to go into frontline battles. F-16 were seen over Kursk and Pokrovsk. Both areas had been subject to a deliberate campaign of eradicating Russian air defences and radars, to ensure the transit of strategic drone strikes across the frontline. Once past the front there’s very little to stop drones except rudimentary point defences at some targets. With the air defences gone the F-16 were able to load up and deliver ordnance.

Equipped with 2 external fuel tanks because of the range from western Ukrainian bases, a couple of wing tip mounted AMRAAM’s along with two short range air to air missiles, they had another two hard points available for a strike package which they seem to have delivered. This is a big moment for Ukraine’s new Air Force, it’s been three years in the making and a torturous journey to get here but it’s deeply encouraging. Add to this the arrival of the AWACS from Sweden and suddenly Ukraine’s Air Force reconstituted is becoming a viable force to defend the country.

Other notable Ukrainian achievements include the devastation at Engels Air Base, one of Russia’s most important strategic bomber bases. The ammunition there was wiped out , but a notable side effect has been that radiation monitors spotted a 21% spike over normal, suggesting that somewhere in the bunkers that detonated, there may have one or more tactical nuclear weapons that were burnt up.

Ukraine’s success in recent weeks and days has been both a morale boost and a warning to the Russians. They know they’re weaker than they would like to be in many areas. The Ukrainians have exhausted them and they are using much of this time to recoup their energy, their numbers but not their vehicle resources. Their artillery is now down to around 1.8:1 from the staggering 10:1 advantage they had three years ago. The days when they could fire 60,000 rounds, day in day out, are long over. Much of their artillery is grssly inferior to what they started with.

Ukraine has had huge success in the drone, in the electronic warfare field, and has established very successful counter measures against Russian glide bombs, vastly undermining their accuracy and their efficacy. No doubt the Russians are trying to work out a way to restore it, but Ukraine has taken a leaf out of Russia’s nominally superior EW capability and turned it against them.

The longer this war goes on, despite Russia bravado, despite their arrogance in negotiations, the worse it’s getting for them. It hasn’t dawned on them just yet. However the state is now in such a fiscal mess, the government out of cash, that its starting to offer up state industries for privatization in order to raise money. Selling into a high interest distressed market what must technically be a worthwhile business is no easy task. If that business was performing well the state would not need to sell it, so at best it’s sold as a bargain. But who has the money now to spend on such investments when loans are running at 25-35% interest?

Russia is desperate – you can see it creeping in, although not to the top of the ladder just yet. Trump has given them hope they can manipulate their way to the easy victory that’s now militarily beyond them.

Its never going to happen. Even the new head of the CIA told a Senate hearing only yesterday, that it was his belief Ukraine would fight bare handed if it had to, and to the end rather than give in to Russia.

The Americans and the Russians may try to exclude from their minds what Europe+ is aiming for and beginning to achieve. It has come to its senses. No more being pushed about from pillar to post or being seen as the quiescent partner in an American show. Those days are gone. We’re behind Ukraine, we stand with it – we will help it to the end, and regardless of what Moscow or Washington want. They need to learn this lesson, before their arrogance is their own undoing.

Ukraine is slowly turning the tide. It’s not the nation on the edge of defeat three years ago, it’s a steel porcupine with sharp claws and teeth that the Russian bear has torn itself apart on. And it’s just going to get worse. I sincerely believe the Russians have seen nothing yet.

The Analyst

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