IMPACT OF THE NORTHWOOD DECLARATION on European Security

Northwood in the Borough of Hillingdon, London. Long associated with the command and control of the UK’s armed forces since 1939. In September 1971 the Navy took over responsibility for the whole establishment. In 1978 the Flag Officer Submarines who is also COMSUBEASTLANT (commander submarines East Atlantic) moved from HMS DOLPHIN at Gosport to Northwood. The motivation behind this was the introduction of the UK’s first Polaris SSBN fleet and the CASD – the Continuous At Sea Deterrent, now in its 54th year. Northwood was and still is the site from which orders to fire missiles would be issued and where the submarine patrol routes are determined.

These days it’s basically the UK armed forces joint command building and consists of above ground reception and offices with a number of deep underground bunkers.

Nowhere could have been more fitting for the meeting and the establishment of the joint Anglo-French nuclear weapons policy for the future.

The Northwood Declaration, signed by President Macron of France and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, on July 10th is focused on deepening nuclear weapons policy cooperation and commuting both parties to ‘a shared commitment to European and global security’.

So what does it mean for the two nuclear armed nations and for Europe?

Both countries reaffirmed that their nuclear weapons exist solely to deter the most extreme threats to national and allied (by which they mean NATO members) security. While their nuclear forces remain independent, the declaration confirms for the first time, that they can be coordinated and contribute to the overall security of the Euro-Atlantic area. That description of Euro-Atlantic includes Iceland, Greenland, Canada and Svalbard which is technically de-militarized but owned by Norway, and has been a constant point of Russian destabilization efforts.

The Mutual Security Commitment: The declaration explicitly states that the UK and France do not foresee any situation where the vital interests of one could be threatened without the other’s vital interests also being at risk. Any extreme threat to Europe would prompt a joint response from both nations.

I’d like you to re-read that last paragraph. Its a very specific set of words and its perfectly clear at this point that the Northwood Declaration puts meat on the bones of what has been a possible outcome in an emergency situation, but could easily have been misinterpreted or disbelieved by Moscow. This lays it out quite clearly that if there was for example, a Russian attack on Poland, both parties would see that as attacking the vital interests of them both as well as their allies in NATO. Not only that but there would not be a question of either the UK or France being ‘peeled’ away from each other and making different statements or seemingly backtracking. This says, both would stand together and place their nuclear umbrella over all of NATO, regardless of what the Americans might or might not be doing.

You could even argue it’s directed right at Trump’s America. It’s basically saying, we get you don’t want to take part in this but we’re not letting you undermine us, we’ll stand alone. It is not something that should be ignored or discarded as mere rhetoric. This is the two democratic European nuclear powers committing to the defense of their mutual interests regardless. Making it clear that nuclear blackmail isn’t ever going to be an option for our enemies. If it came to it, a joint nuclear response by both nations operating together would be made.

A Nuclear Steering Group will be made up of the UK Cabinet Office and the Office of the French Presidency. This group will provide political direction and coordinate across nuclear policy, capabilities, and operations so that both sides are working to compliment each others operations.

Other parts of the Broader Defence Cooperation: The Northwood Declaration was signed alongside other defence agreements, including the expansion of the Combined Joint Expeditionary Force to 50,000 troops and a new industrial partnership to strengthen defence industries.

For the first time Europe+ has a fully committed Anglo-French nuclear weapons pact. It is in effect a Europe+ nuclear deterrence force – as well as remaining a national one. It means even without the US, a combined force of 540 nuclear warheads is potentially available without resorting to US decision making centers. I think this is a very big deal indeed. Its the result of the return of Trump, the random nature of his approach to world affairs, the inherent reliability of the US as an ally must now be permanently questioned. And it has been, and this tells you that the premise has been accepted as reality and Britain and France will take on the responsibility for themselves.

Russia has reacted to the whole thing as though someone has threatened them with nuclear Armageddon. ‘They don’t know what they’re doing’, ‘it’s just another aggressive NATO act against Russia’. The Deputy Foreign Minister went as far as to say that Russia ‘would now adjust its nuclear policy accordingly’, as if anything was going to change. They always react as if they were not the ones who have been responsible for this in the first place, and it’s their actions that have driven it forward.

Yet in more ways than anything Russia has done, it’s Trump’s isolationist and untrustworthy nature, the transactional behavior he indulges in, that has made this a necessity. Between Putin & Trump they have created an equal and opposite reaction.

It doesn’t matter that Russia and America have the best part of 6,000 warheads each. Russia doesn’t need more than a hundred to cripple France and the UK, but just as equally it would only take as many to cripple Russia. Ukraine has managed to cause mayhem with a handful of drones – imagine what damage 100 350kt or so nukes would do scattered around Moscow, St Petersburg and the major towns of Russia.

The point is of course not to reach that point, it’s about deterrence. In that respect I believe we have more than enough weaponry for that to be taken seriously. With new British SSBN’s heading to sea in the coming years, a rolling program of French SSBN’s (they are about to embark on their own 3eme Géneration), as well as the return of British nuclear capable tactical F-35’s, French ASMP cruise missiles and their double range successor, its enough to deal with Russia, alone or in conjunction with the US.

It’s been a big week for Anglo-French relations, I’m delighted with the outcome. Its something that’s been worked on for nearly two years on and off, but the Labour Government was able to pull it off, and under the French Constitution, defence and foreign relations are the prerogative of the President. How far Macron has come, from his days not wanting to believe Putin would invade Ukraine, even going there to see him just days before. To his credit and the credit of France, he has changed dramatically, and the blinkers Europe had about Putin’s Russia are fallen and trampled in the dust.

It’s a big day for Europe+, Britain and France. It shows a dynamic shift in the relationship between them and the US, especially over nuclear weapons use and deterrence policy, and especially for the UK which has been so tied to US policy in the past. Those days are gone. One more step in the right direction.

The Analyst

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