UKRAINE WILL WIN

The last week has been filled with quite correct analysis that Trump has blown hard and delivered little in terms of aid for Ukraine’s gallant defence against Russia. He has not tipped the balance in Ukraine’s favor, he hasn’t done a single thing to improve or dramatically swing the war in Ukraine’s favor by ending the war quickly. Both he and Biden could have done that, but even when Biden had the power of the presidency and a majority in both houses of Congress, he wouldn’t go that far, petrified by Cold War era assessments of Russian reaction and behavior. Never understanding they long ago stopped thinking like the Soviets because this Russia is a very different one to the USSR. That was a group of powerful men who to a surprising degree – especially post Stalin, acted as the check and balance to the office of the Secretary General (later President) of the Communist Party of The Soviet Union. Putin has no checks and no balances. He’s a one man band, the epitome of the unitary dictatorship.

Ukraine has suffered only two genuinely strategic defeats at the hands of the Russians, and both of them were avoidable, and both were in essence, caused by the same fundamental problem. Avdivka in early 2024 was a defeat brought on, after ten years of tenaciously holding it, by the suspension of US arms deliveries that lasted the best part of six months. The shortage of artillery shells, especially the much needed 155mm, the lack of ammunition across the board, led to it becoming increasingly impossible to hold on. Added to that the Russians can smell an opportunity from a distance and they knew they had a chance. They employed unusual tactics – undermining Ukrainian defences in the south of the defence lines by coming up through tunnels behind them. On the other they were incredibly flexible with their ‘spike’ tactics, driving one into a front line then opening that up into a salient.

The defeat and withdrawal from Avdivka was a mess. The withdrawal was haphazard, there were no new defence lines to fall back to – because Ukraine (such a sin in my book) assumed Avdivka would not fall no preparations had been made. The Russians quickly exploited the failure of two old school Brigade commanders to coordinate a rotation and pushed another spike into the NW corner of the new line, which eventually led to the now huge salient south of Pokrovsk. All of that a consequence of the US withholding aid.

The more recent defeat came at Kursk where again, a suspension of US technical and intelligence aid this time cut the Ukrainians off from knowing where the Russians were and how fast they were moving. The Ukrainians were operating blind, unaware that the Russians, again always quick to sniff out a real opportunity, had assembled an elite fiber optic drone unit in the area, with the express purpose of devastating Ukrainian positions. They were so spot on the Ukrainians on the ground actually blamed the US for telling the Russians where they were. The evacuation from Kursk was a disaster, equipment and vehicles abandoned and after months of fighting and embarrassing the Russians it ended rather ignominiously.

The reason I’ve gone back into the details of these two events is to underline the absolute criticality of what the US provided. The intel sharing suspension is unlikely to happen again. But just as importantly, the difference between the loss of Avdivka and now, has to be explained. In early 2024 European shell production was in its ramping-up infancy. The Czech Initiative was spurred on because of what happened, Europeans governments were briefed on the primary cause and redoubled their efforts with industry to step up shell production. Meanwhile it was the restoration of US military aid in May 2024 that stabilized the increasingly fragile situation, that ironically, led to Kursk.

However the speed at which the Czech Initiative, where overseas 155 & 152mm artillery was either purchased off the shelf or contract produced, was surprisingly quick to fill gaps in Ukrainian needs because in many ways, the Ukrainians had realized they needed to find an alternative and they had it already – a massive increase in drone production could – and subsequently did – make up for the loss of available artillery, especially when the cluster munition shells ran out.

Ukraine also relieved itself – and continues to do so – of the overwhelming preponderance of Russian artillery. At the start of the war that had been a 10:1 advantage in Russia’s favor, but a relentless and on-going campaign against artillery systems has been stunningly successful and whittled that ratio down to around 1.9:1.

The key problems Ukraine had – artillery shell shortages and drone shortages on the front, air defences in the cities and protecting strategic assets are all being addressed. The artillery is in such good shape that European production is expected to reach up to 200% of target by years end. Czech Initiative supplies are continuing to stream in. US shell supplies have remained continuous except for deliberate 1 week stoppages by the new US administration which were quickly reversed.

The latest round of talks and the deal with Trump, is from an American perspective, paltry. Other than what’s left of $3.8 billion in Presidential draw down authority from the 2024-5 aid package (which expires on 30th September if unused), Trump shows no inclination to spend it. Ammunition is being supplied on long term contracts paid separately but with time limits. I don’t think he’ll renew it if the US has to pay for it.

What Zelensky and NATO’s EU+ allies have managed to do is persuade Trump to let them buy what they need for Ukraine – that fits Trumps agenda perfectly.

While figures like Macron are dead against supporting American defence industries the fact is that only the US has the GMLRS rounds, only the US has the depth of resources to maintain the F-16’s, and only the US produces the Patriot launchers or the potenial JASSM long range missiles – even more so the Typhon Tomahawk if that’s permitted longer term. Only the US can give Ukraine the reconnaissance, and targeting information it needs to wage the war to the scale they need to wage it, the glide bombs and the air to air missiles.

It’s uncomfortable, but it’s true Europe is doing its utmost to rectify many of these issues – especially satellite based comms and recon. The reality is only the US can supply key elements Ukraine needs now, not in six months or a year. It’s a fact of life many in Europe have reluctantly understood. The problem is there isn’t a unified European program to produce an F-35 or a 6th Gen fighter, or a system as good as Patriot, or an equal to or superior system to the HIMARS. And we need all of those things and much more if we are to divorce ourselves from American technology. But that’s a long, long way off and requires a sea change in the way defence industries operate – either as a unified EU+ process that frankly ignores many national priorities to cut waste and duplication, or at least a series of important lower level programs everyone works on that are achievable and realistic.

Right now Ukraine has to win this war, and I believe it will. Trump may have done the minimum, but by letting NATO/Ukraine buy what it needs there will be no need to consider policy again, no more refusing to give equipment because it won’t be asked for. He’s already come round to the reality that Putin started it and Ukraine is the victim, and he’s done that because he’s not being asked to spend American money. Quite the opposite, we will spend it there.

We have therefore secured Ukraine’s supply of American weapons and assistance and that means no more cut offs and no more weak moments. Europe has worked incredibly hard to provide solutions to the other weak points in Ukraine’s capabilities. And Ukraine has exceeded its own and everyone else’s expectations in the fields of drone technologies, strategy and tactics. Recent raids on the Russian aerospace industry around Moscow and Tula have been technically complex, brilliantly strategized and masterfully executed. This will continue as long as Ukrainians have breath in their bodies.

Ukraine now has the tools to defend itself and it will not be long before the attacks on cities and civilians is resolved as thousands of anti drone missiles and growing fleets of drone interceptors take to the skies. Every avenue the Russians take Ukraine will find and deploy a solution. That’s who they are – winners.

So while Trump has his issues and he appears to have done nothing to help – because he has done literally next to nothing, what little he has done is enough to keep Ukraine in the field and the Russians being ground down, day in day out.

The front lines have been almost stagnant, a brutal game of whack-a-mole, with Russia only pressing in areas that require its maximum effort to achieve next to nothing for the cost in lives and materials. Its army is a mess, surrenders and cases of AWOL have soared as the reality of the frontline come home to those deployed. Even now soldiers don’t get fresh water unless they pay for it to corrupt officers. Mistreatment is everywhere, discontent a running sore of petrifaction through the increasingly sclerotic veins of a decaying army. The economy is doomed, the pressures on it endless and unidirectional – it will crash and burn given the right pressures, and they are everywhere increasing.

So give Ukraine’s leaders, the leader of NATO like Mark Rutte, Boris Pistorius of Germany, and the leadership of Chancellor Merz, who in weeks has done more than Sholz did in years. Backed up by other allies like Denmark and Norway, Britain and the Netherlands, supported by the EU presidency, we did good – and we did it together, for the right reasons.

It is after all the least we could do for Ukraine because they are fighting where we cannot – for us, for their country and for a free and democratic future. And now it is certain they will win because they have the tools to do the job. The tide is turning.

Slava Ukraine!

The Analyst

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