UKRAINE’S NEW WEAPONS: RUSSIA, BE AFRAID!

As we enter the autumn of 2025 in the coming weeks, summer drawing to a close, Ukraine will be on the cusp of introducing two new weapons systems. One will have high impact on the strategic war, the other on the tactical and theater of operations.

1. THE FLAMINGO CRUISE MISSILE

The strategic weapon, you have heard much about, its cutesy name somewhat belying its incredible capabilities. The Flamingo Cruise Missile, which has an eerie similarity in appearance to the WW2 German V-1, that terrified UK towns and cities in 1944 with its deep guttural throbbing pulse motor. If it cut out you had about 40 seconds before it came down.

The Flamingo got its name from a factory mistake, when for some reason the early prototypes were ordered in pink paint. The name stuck as much out of humor and quirkiness – a symbol of defiance in wartime.

The development was started by Fire Point, a Kyiv based tech start up, of mostly non military professionals. The behavior of the Americans, forcing restrictions on where their weapons could and could not fire, which included the weapons of allies like France and Britain that required US targeting data for Storm Shadow & SCALP-EG, was an obstacle that Ukraine needed to overcome. Flamingo was designed, tested and put into production in little over nine months – an entire weapons system from start to finish. A speed UK industry would barely have managed to scope out the requirement for let alone reached prototyping!

The first prototypes were flown in June-July with the first battlefield test allegedly having happened in mid-late August, suggesting its possible one at least has been used against a Russian target – probably a refinery to ensure the prototype was incinerated.

The missile is, despite claims to the contrary (neither Britain or the UAE will admit it), almost exactly the same as the Milanion FP-5 demonstrated at the Dubai and Abu Dhabi airshows in 2024. The British-Emirati group specifications for the missile are so similar and the appearance so striking there can be no doubt of the Flamingo’s origin. Milanion signed a defence development deal with the Ukrainians as long ago as 2021.

Both have a range of 3,000km (1,900 miles), a warhead between 1,000-1,150kg (around 2 tons), both weigh in around six tons at launch and are designed for ground launching. Both use a booster rocket motor which is potentially recoverable and reusable, to get the missile into the air as its own motors cut in with sufficient power to carry it forward.

The missile is said to use what are often described as ‘un-jammable’ electronics. This implies inertial navigation, where the missile needs to know precisely where it is at launch. The INS system will then take into account every maneuver and adjustment to keep it on target. It will occasionally use GPS (even GLONASS?) to update its position, especially in later stages where jamming and spoofing signals are rare. Final stage radar and/or optical recognition may be used to hit nearest the target. The CEP (circular error probable), the distance from the intended target 50% of all warheads will hit, is likely no more than 40m – with such a massive warhead that sort of distance is almost meaningless against relatively soft strategic targets like refineries and factories.

Regardless of its origins the Flamingo is going to be Russia’s worst nightmare. This is a turning of the tables. All those drones and missiles that Russia has fired over the years, into thermal power plants and blocks of flats, hydro power dams and the like? Flamingo is going to be the start of wholesale destruction of Russia’s war industries and economically crucial infrastructure. If they can as they say they will, by October, produce 7 of these a day, over the course of three months Ukraine will build and fire 630 – and at that scale, damage is going to be done to vital sectors of Russia’s war effort behind the lines. This could absolutely be a game changing weapon, the one thing that has the potential to render Russia paralyzed and incapable of continuing the war in the way they’re used to.

Waves of Flamingos flying into Russia taking out several key sites every night – it’s going to bring the war home to everyone. I cannot wait to see the results.

2. ERAM – EXTENDED RANGE ATTACK MUNITION

America has approved the sale of 3,350 of these missiles, which are entirely air launched. I think it shows us how far Ukraine has come – at one point its Air Force was essentially non existent, and that its now worth them taking delivery of 3,350 of these shows not only that they have the aircraft but they’re confident of delivering them.

These are what can only be described as a ‘force multiplier’. They take, for example an F-16 that could drop some relatively short range tactical JDAM-ER’s on the frontline, and turn it into a delivery machine for weapons that at the very least can deliver heavy ordnance theater-wide, not just on the frontline or just behind, but everywhere – including more distant rear areas out of reach of HIMARS well beyond the front lines but still inside or just beyond the borders of occupied Ukraine. And with the umbrella of the Swedish supplied AEW aircraft, both of which are now operational, keep the aircraft relatively safe at their launch point.

The ERAM is not exactly a glide bomb and it’s not exactly a cruise missile.

The ERAM has a range of around 460km (288 miles). Far less than the Storm Shadow. it also has a much smaller warhead of 227kg (about 500lbs). It flies around Mach 0.6 or 700kph (430mph). Its launch to target is around 30-35 minutes. It has a CEP of 10m, making it extremely effective for tactical targets, especially with a blast fragmentation warhead.

The ERAM is actually a successful development by the United States. They set out to find systems that would be useful, but not require everything to be designed from the ground up, utilizing as many systems and technologies as they could to provide a cheap, effective weapon. These work out at around $253,730 each. It’s not uncommon for weapons like this to be four or more times that.

It originated from the RIM-174 Standard Extended Range Active Missile (SM-6), a U.S. Navy missile derived from the air frame of earlier Standard Missiles but enhanced with advanced active radar homing seeker technology from the AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missile. The new ERAM for Ukraine is a further development or offshoot of this existing missile family, but designed as a smaller, air-launched precision strike weapon with GPS/INS guidance and ability to operate in GPS-degraded environments, optimised for standoff strike missions involving extended ranges.
The ERAM is therefore, part of a lineage evolving from the Standard Missile series, benefiting from decades of missile technology and sensors integrated into a more tactical, air-force deployable system, for precision ground-attack that fills a niche between cruise missiles and guided bombs.

The whole program was only requested in July 2024, specifically for Ukrainian use. The US, Denmark and the Netherlands worked together on financing and development. Built by CoAspire and Zone5 Technologies sixteen companies provide components. At least 1,000 of the missiles are intended to be delivered this year (2025).

The missile manufacturers used digital design technology to build a realistic simulation, knocking years off the development phase. New parts or changes could be digitally developed quickly and proven to work or not, in days rather than months, leading to rapid specification acceptance.

In many ways this shows you what western technology, determination and industrial clout can achieve when it sets its mind to it – all it needs is the willpower and the money to make it happen.

What will deliver the ERAM? F-16 obviously fits the bill, being the most easily integrated. However the Su-24 Fencers that are still around (between 3 and 6 may be operational), would also work, probably with a payload as high as four. It’s quite likely the Mig-29 would also be able to deliver them, as they’ve proven extremely good at being adapted to western tech, although their numbers decline slowly as the war goes on. It’s been suggested the Mirage-2000’s could carry them with some modifications.

So Ukraine has two new missile weapons that will greatly assist it in keeping the Russians from achieving the goals. This year has been bad for Russia. Its military has been an operational failure despite its cries to the contrary. These weapons will help make sure it stays that way, on the front line and in the strategic war that will be decisive.

The Analyst

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