KINETIC SANCTIONS & ECONOMIC STRIFE

Russia for centuries has allowed us to believe that it, by virtue of its size, its population and its resources, is very nearly invincible. Its people are said to be so capable of sustaining themselves in even the most brutal of times, from the harshness of bitter winters to the policies of imperial, communist and lately fascist régimes, that nothing can break them.

Somehow we seem to overlook two revolutions during the late Imperial period, and the ultimate rejection and overthrow of the Soviet system just three decades ago. Three revolutions in just 90 years. Clearly when the Russian people have decided enough is enough, they are quite capable of taking matters into their own hands. What they end up with is not usually what they were looking for, but in many ways that’s the very nature of revolutions rather than a simple change of government. The Iranians certainly did not expect to end up in a stifling autocratic theocracy, rather than the somewhat enlightened (by comparison) Imperial government of the Shah they went to so much effort to remove.

Ukraine since August 1st – no doubt the history books will explain why that date in due course, began its second major strategic warfare operation against the Russian oil refineries. This came in on top of the strikes against key industries supplying the war effort and the logistical systems that delivered it and supported getting it to the front.

Over the course of the period since then 27 of Russia’s oil refineries have been seriously hit and damaged. Only this time, unlike the first round, they were not single drones but networked attacks involving as many as eight. A major strike on the 12-13th September, the video of which I admit to watching at least half-a-dozen times exclaiming ‘wow, just look at that’ to an empty room! Five huge detonations, one after the other ripped through the facility over around three seconds. Another attack actually hit the piers and two of the grey tankers loading at Ust-Luga in St Petersburg, as well as parts of the export terminal that even the Russians have admitted is out of action – the first time that oil exports have been stopped from the Baltic. That’s costing them $100 million a day.

Overall the Russians have lost at least 23-25% of their refinery capacity and Ukraine has been far more clinical about it than impressions might first give you. They have specifically targeted the refineries that supply Moscow, and the relay pumping station that pushes oil to its refineries.

We know that shortages of refined fuels are impacting the far east of Russia, we also know that fuel has shot up in price – becoming a major problem for Russians used to low prices that are currently four times higher than they were at the start of the year. That means they’re consuming as much as 30% of a family budget, already tightly stretched by inflation, debt burdens and high interest rates. The Russian government rather disingenuously blames the whole thing on summer vacationers! Even a Russian who watches state propaganda all day must see through that one.

But it’s not just the money, bad enough as it is. It’s the simple fact that lines lasting two hours are often failing to meet the needs of the ever lengthening lines of car owners. In Moscow. This is exactly the sort of problem that Putin has been trying to avoid. You take fuel away from car drivers in any western nation and you soon see the complaints and the results are quick to kick in. Governments quickly fall foul of the public mood when such crises arise. Most European countries are out of refined fuel in around 7 days, we witnessed just such an event in the UK back in 2002 I think it was. That was caused by tanker drivers going on strike, but the impact was swift. In a week they had made their point, not a car on the road. Putin’s administration will be working over time to keep the civilian supplies running. This is exactly the type of crises sensitive governments (and all dictatorships are surprisingly sensitive, if lacking the empathy to understand the core of the problem), this is a crisis for Russia and its not going to stop.

Ukraine is playing a winning hand. It needs to keep this pressure up, relentlessly so, no backing off. Russia’s struggling to make repairs to the refineries. All were built with Western technology and equipment – now tightly sanctioned. Core parts are to a point, available from China, but most of it is second or third rate and doesn’t last, even if it can be made to work without completely re-structuring the plant. The Russians are in a mess with these strikes, out of options and if the attacks keep coming it won’t even be worth attempting repairs.

This strategy will blare fruit – Russia will have to face the fact its refinery capacity is moribund, it will have to import finished product from its neighbors at huge cost it can ill afford and even if it does, it has distribution issues and nothing like enough tankers to move the product. It’s no good relying on trains because Ukraine has gone out of its way to cripple the network and destroy the rolling stock, and will continue doing so.

You have to wonder how it is that Russia has come to this point sometimes. How has it let a country the size of Ukraine hold it to a near stationary position on the battlefield for the best part of the last 13 months, let it wreck its principle industry, turn the war around so that Russians themselves now know their daily lives are being negatively affected by it, and drain Russia’s wealth to within a hair’s breadth of financial collapse? This is not what Putin intended. I think we give him too much credit for far too much. He’s the Wizard of Oz, all smoke and mirrors. He clearly doesn’t have this under control, has no means of ever getting there if Ukraine carries on, and must inevitably pay the price. He is looking, more and more, like a cartoon character standing on fresh air just before the realization sinks in there’s nothing holding him up.

That wonderful phrase ‘Kinetic Sanctions’ deserves an award for whomever coined it. I sincerely hope Ukraine doesn’t back off this strategy. This is absolutely its winning card. Add that to the rapidly increasing drone interception systems going on line in the next few moths, and Putin’s own aerial strategy – which has finally started to be used against strategic targets rather than just civilian ones, will also become a moribund operation. When that fails, its frontline operations are stalled, its economy collapsing like a slow-motion house of cards, the public start demanding change as their daily lives are impacted, the oligarchs and the military will start to smell blood. Those newly installed ex-military veterans, now governors after fake elections, will be looking at what they can do to take over their regions – permanently and independent of Putin’s failing régime.

The Analyst

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