2026 RUSSIA’S WORST YEAR?

The year is not even a week old at the time of writing and it’s pretty clear Russia isn’t having the best of times. While Ukraine may be battered at home and the Russians seem obsessed with eliminating shopping malls and innocent civilians – something Ukraine will never deliberately do, everything Russian seems to be getting worse by the day.

In the global theatre Russia just lost Venzuela’s Maduro. The government there is in shock, as are most of the people in the country nobody knows quite where they stand or what they might be risking. Their much vaunted air defences supplied by Russia were removed from the game in minutes. This is a country that Russia has so assiduously supported – FSB & GRU officers trained the security services – that Putin has gone to huge efforts to place himself next to Maduro at any opportunity. There are dozens of images of the two ‘stong men’ together and Putin even sent Tu-160 Blackjack nuclear bombers to the country, as a show of unity and strength in recent years. The two only in October signed a pretty much worthless ‘strategic partnership’ deal. That went well.

Just like Syria – one minute the Russians and their proxies are in control and the next Assad is knocking on the door asking for asylum and Russian forces are being escorted out of the back door, after a decade of the mass destruction of Syrian cities.

Iran looks to be in the midst of one its most powerful uprisings and may be close to a revolution. Russia sent four Il-76 Candid transports full of riot gear to Tehran, but it’s not going to be enough. That country was pounded by the US and Israel and all Russia could do was sit back and do nothing. It can’t really do much as Iran cycles through yet another political upheaval. Even if the regime survives, every time it goes through these cycles it gets weaker and weaker because its underlying economic and infrastructure problems are so profound; lack of food and water is the minimum for life and empty stomachs equal riots.

The high tide of Iran’s proxy war against Israel and the West has passed and its in no position to restore itself any time soon – if ever. Even at this stage, should it demonstrate it can set off a nuclear weapon, it will be a desperation move – and it will simply hasten its domestic fall. It’s not going to use the weapons in Iran, so change is coming like it or not. It’s not in a position to keep supporting Russia and Russia is in no position to support Iran’s regime with more than token gestures.

Putin may think he can rely on China, but its wrapped up in a domestic economic mess that rarely gets reported on, its fraught with provincial governments close to bankruptcy, chronic youth unemployment and dissatisfaction, state industries buckling under immense debt and a demographic crisis it will take decades to reverse. Only China’s exports are keeping it going – ironically our over dependence on Chinese products is its one saving grace. Like many nations facing a domestic crisis the state looks to distract its population, again at Taiwan’s expense. Vast drills, the largest and most aggressive ever, have simulated a close blockade of the island.

Trump had just signed off on an $11 billion military aid package for the island but claimed not be worried about China’s bellicosity. That may be premature. The Chinese window of opportunity for moving on Taiwan is 2027, a combination of their military strength maximizing, and America’s minimizing in terms of naval forces. Yet it’s widely understood that if China could get the Kuomintang into overall power they would use it to create a ‘voluntary’ unification. Why fight when you don’t have to? They have until 2049 to get it done.

The problem for Putin is that China sees him as the problem. He’s been offered what they think are bargain terms over Ukraine and they’ve urged he take them. Beijing is quietly known to be shocked at the Russian leaders refusal to see he’s overplaying his hand. They don’t want him to lose, that would not look good for their ‘deep alliance and cooperation’ – always more talk than substance, but their largesse is now focusing on what happens post war and what they can get out of it – which could be very substantial. Its no coincidence that the vast array of Chinese diggers, transport trucks, motorbikes, and ATV’s has largely disappeared – if you don’t pay your bills and the domestic economy isn’t also supporting the factories that make them – and its not – then you get nothing. Secondary sanctions also go deeper than you’d think. Exports to your overseas customers suffer if you trade with Russia, so it’s not worth it.

Overall the Chinese alliance is not proving to be the lifeline it looked like it might be. In the end these authoritarian regimes may have very powerful militaries and appear deeply threatening, but corruption, inertia and their entire system of governance is a stultifying dead hand that leaves them bound up in a web of failures, even if it looks like they might succeed. Look deeper and it’s often smoke and mirrors.

Add to that the fact their own survival is far more important to them than any of their ‘alliances’ and they’d dump each other over board without hesitation if the life boat was out of seating.

The bizarre victor of Russia’s desperation has been N.Korea. They have gained technology and knowledge as a the price for their cooperation that has saved them probably 10-15 years in research and development. NK is in what amounts to an economic boom – paid for by Russian weapons demands and the leasing out of its work force and soldiery. Yet the money has dried up as Russia stops paying and the barter systems only goes so far. Russia has more artillery shells than it knows what to do with because it no longer has the guns to fire them. NK equipment just isn’t up to it nor sufficient in quantity to make any difference. And Russia can’t pay.

Russia is facing a loss of its relationship with Turkey, which is deliberately cutting back on its oil and gas dependency as well as its willingness to turn a blind eye to financial and sanctioned goods. The Turks are not amused by Russian drone violations of their air space and they feel Putin is not playing ball over peace talks, which they have urged he take more seriously. President Erdogan doesn’t like being ignored.

Russia’s own backyard – the ‘Stans’ of Central Asia – even they are no longer playing ball with the Kremlin. Kazakhstan particularly is enforcing sanctions – especially on Chinese over land drone parts and western tech. They can tell which way the wind is blowing – and they intend on hedging their bets to a point, but in the end they need access to western markets for their energy exports and the goods the west supplies that nobody else can, let alone a growing and very profitable tourism trade.

Everywhere Russia looks, its so called friends are saying what it wants to hear while doing the opposite, at best doing nothing. Actively supporting Russia seems to be a thing of the past.

On the domestic front the economy is in a spiraling mess. The recent reduction in interest rates to 16% will only let already rampant inflation worsen – but the government uses that partly as an income generating scheme – higher prices mean more tax revenue – its a ridiculously short term concept but they have been using it for the last four years.

The state deficit for last year was said to be $25 billion – way above expectations (and while that may seem minimal these days in terms of western and US values, remember that Purchase Price Parity (PPP) turns that to $100 billion in western terms. Russias GDP is a little more than Canadas, but it’s fractional. New York State is the closest to it in the US, and is actually a tad more. I hope that helps put it in context.

Canada runs a deficit of around $70 billion give or take – in Russian terms that’s $17.5 billion. The difference is that Canada can finance it on the open market and sell bonds.

Russia can’t sell bonds except domestically, and few have the money because they’ve already handed most of it over. Gold reserves have been sold consistently to raise money but that can’t go on for ever – again the market is 99% internal and those who can have bought what they can afford. Revenues are falling hand over fist and this years deficit is expected to hit $50 billion ($200 billion PPP equivalence) – most think it will be far higher – and there’s nothing left to finance it with. That means the only thing left is ‘printing’ money, the last resort. They did that between August-October last year, 17.4 trillion roubles (circa $215 billion) in 5,000 denomination notes that were largely fed to the banks to prevent a bank run and shore up liquidity. Itself a crisis caused by 30% levels of default on corporate and domestic loans. Its going to take much, much more than that to prop up the whole economy for another year and the danger with printing money and low interest rates at a time of high inflation – runaway uncontrollable hyper-inflation that nothing can stop.

Russia is also reaching the point after four years of war, where infrastructure and vital systems are starting to collapse of their own accord. Power systems, railways, bridges, mines, the day to day things we rely on in a civilized society. No money has been set aside for things that need routine maintenance. Many of those who know how to fix them were sent off to Ukraine because they were known to local authorities and easy to find to meet quotas. That’s mostly a one way trip.

Oil refineries were ordered to ignore maintenance to keep producing petrol and diesel so that the Ukrainian induced shortages could be overcome. That again, pushed them beyond their tolerances – added to the grief already caused by repeated targeted drone strikes. The ability to keep fixing, keep repairing erodes over time. You can’t get parts, the skills, the rest of the system is probably half jury-rigged and dangerous to make up for other damage and failures. There’s only so long you can keep it all going. These things aren’t like the Millennium Falcon, held together by a myth of film magic and hope.

An example of a self failing system is the huge blackout in Moscow around Christmas – everyone thought Ukraine did it, but it turns out it was a system wide failure, partly caused by Ukrainian strikes on power transformers – systems that are incredibly difficult to repair and for which there is little in the way of spares – that caused too much to pass through a key set of those still working, one burnt out and the knock on effect was dramatic.

If all that wasn’t enough, Ukraine is on the cusp of delivering Flamingo missiles at scale – January-February 2026 was always the planned in service window. The number of long range drones – especially the FP-2 family are cheaper per unit ($58k) than Russias Shaheeds. Their numbers are scaling up and Russia now faces daily attacks well above last year. In fact December 2025 saw nearly double the number of drones hit Russia than any previous period. This is new for the Russians. Oil refineries were one thing but now it’s almost anything almost anywhere. They suppress mobile internet and arrest anyone reporting impact sites now, but not showing it happen doesn’t mean it isn’t.

Ukraine has managed this, and held the frontline, and conducted counter attacks. It caused huge embarrassment to Putin personally and the army, over the Kupyansk saga – Zelensky pulled off a huge media coup with his trip to the town the Russians insisted they were in full control of on live TV to Putin’s face. The painful reality of it was a joy to behold. It really did create a moment inside Russia’s high command that possibly changed the war. It was one of those catalyst moments when Putin realized he was being lied to – and he’s been far more active in military decision making since – always a good way to lose a war when a military and strategic ignoramus takes charge. It was more significant that we generally appreciate. It was a Baghdad Bob moment – you know the one – ‘We’re winning and the Americans have been beaten back’ just as a group of Bradley’s drive in to the square behind him.

In Russia massive live TV mistakes beamed around the world that turn to cringemaking reality are considered privately amusing, but the Chinese and everyone else would have seen it too. To add to that the fake attack on Putin personally – why should he not be a target? They’ve been after Zelensky repeatedly. But to make its so unbelievable even Trump said it was untrue, takes some doing. It’s the sort of mistake that never happened, that they are shows how desperate and deflective Russia is becoming.

Last year Ukraine received $49 billion in foreign military aid – most of it European. That equipment purchased with that money is going to be delivered during this year, and there’s another $49 billion to prop up the rest of the government, on top of the countries own income, pushing it close to where it was before the war started, but with a total war focus. Domestic industries are pushing out 50% of the countries weapons and that’s rising – despite what Russia is doing.

Ukraine trained 100 pilots last year for its incoming warplanes – the recently delivered Polish Mig-29’s have been making life hard for Russian logistics already. Storm Shadow – the newly revamped and new build missiles are already arriving and in use. Sweden’s gift of AEW aircraft has transformed air defence and allowed longer range operations into Russian held territory. Patriot missiles have closed down Ukraine’s air space to aircraft intrusions to the point Russian aircraft almost never enter Ukraine’s air space. Instead the long range glide bombs have become their only means of making themselves felt, and a tech development may soon render them obsolete as increasing numbers of interceptor drones have proven to be successful at killing them.

On the ground, as Russia uses manpower its finding hard to get hold of as it can’t pay for new recruits, tinkering with the conscription system should draw in younger recruits monthly and reactivating reservists will help, but they will all be reluctant and not so easily bullied and mistreated. If they had wanted to be there they would have been there long before now.

Ukraine is making up for its manpower shortages by deploying increasing numbers of GCV’s – autonomous ground combat vehicle drones that have already proven to be successful at defending key points – and twice now Russians have actually surrendered to them.

The war is changing and Zelensky has just upped the game by moving new, younger intelligent and experienced thinkers and doers into top tier government. Russia has nothing and nobody to compete with this – the dead hand of stultifying dictatorship cannot produce such people.

The war is in my opinion, now Ukraine’s to lose. Russia cannot win, even if it takes a few extra kilometers of territory. Eventually it will run up against those new fortifications and its in no position to storm those without catastrophic losses. Even it got past them there’s another even worse line behind that under construction.

Russia cannot win, not before it collapses into its own doom. If Putin is fool enough to think he can bluster his way to victory, he’s even more of a strategically inept fool than he was for starting a war he could never win.

I would remind you that this coming Sunday, January 11th 2026, this war has equalled the entire Nazi invasion, the massive Russian retreat, the battles of Moscow, Leningrad, Stalingrad, Kursk, the full German retreat to Berlin and the surrender of German forces. All of it. Russia hasn’t moved much more than 50km in this war. Its squandered its Soviet legacy and left it as scrap in Ukrainian fields and towns. It cannot, and it will not win. Every day Ukraine gets stronger and every day we are closer to the end.

The Analyst

militaryanalyst.bsky.social