There has not been such a shatteringly important earthquake of an election in years. This one was deep, sweeping away sixteen years of manifestly authoritarian rule that became corrupt, anti-democratic, anti-NATO, anti-EU and eventually anti-Hungarian.
Victor Orban thought he was invincible quite frankly. He had turned the courts into his puppets, the media were beaten into government supporting submission, the system of patronage he developed ran through everything. It was designed to keep him in power indefinitely.
Orban was however dependent on the EU – many of its nations especially Germany, had invested in heavily in motor manufacturing – the entire Volkswagen Group produced its petrol and diesel engines in the country for its VW, Audi, Skoda and Seat (pronounced see-at) brands. At one time the Audi TT was sent there for interior completion. Hungary needed the EU and its budget support to survive. Its agricultural land made it a major food producer and the subsidies were essential for Orban’s core supporters in the rural majority of this small countries population.
Hungarians are more closely related to Finns that any other group, their language shares common roots. After WW1 they were not happy, being on the losing side, about having many of their lands stripped from them. Carpathian-Ruthenia which after WW2 ended up in Ukraine. Transylvania ended up in Romania and was briefly returned in 1941 under von Ribbentrop’s Vienna Awards, but lost again in 1945.
Hungary had ended up being ruled as a Kingdom without a king, after a brief marxist revolution under Béla Kun, that was soon removed by an Austro-Hungarian Navy Admiral, Miklós Horthy de Nagybánya. He’d been aide to Emperor Franz Josef, and commanded the Imperial Navy until the collapse of the empire in 1918-19. He served as a benevolent dictator from 1920 through to 1944. Having joined the Nazis in their invasion of Russia, he tried to find a way out before the Russians invaded, but Hitler had Otto Skorzeny kidnap Horthy’s son Nikolas to keep him in line, but Germany soon deposed Horthy on October 16 1944 just as an armistice was to be signed with Russia.
Hungary was brutally treated by the Nazis who fought tooth and nail through the country until they were driven out. The Soviets blocked a democratically elected government being installed in November 1945. The Russians forced a Stalinist constitution on the country in 1949, which lasted until 1953, including purges, show trials and executions. Between 1953-56 a reformist government took charge. Then as the reforms began to escalate, a revolution and uprising began, which was brutally crushed by a Warsaw Pact invasion lead by the Russians. This was a full military repression with some 2,700 being killed and thousands fled the country. I have several friends whose parents made it out and settled in the UK, often anglicizing their names.
The 1956 uprising is key to understanding Hungary’s relationship with Russia and why Orban lost this election so very badly. There are still people who remember it as children, and the legends of the time are deeply ingrained in their children. Hungarians have generally had a poor relationship with Russia and see it as a bad time in their well remembered history. While many have supported the right wing Orban represented because Hungary is a very conservative nation at its core, being in the EU has changed it, and Orban’s over familiar relationship with Putin and his support for Russia? It wore pretty thin with most. It’s one of those deep racial memories that makes you know in your core it just isn’t right.
Even allowing for the fact he’d been in office for 16 years and people wanted a change, it was more than that this time. Hungarians are well aware of what a fool Trump is. Rolling him out in his defence, getting Vance and Rubio to actually come to Hungary and endorse him, was all too much. Even Netanyahu endorsed ‘his dear friend’. The CPAC meeting in Hungary was more for the Americans than anyone else. Orban’s constant undermining of the EU, his financial mismanagement, his refusal to join the Euro and keep Hungary using its Florin which has not kept pace in value, have all contributed. His deliberate use of Russian GRU support for the election was a red rag to a bull for many, and the widespread belief the Russians financed his election campaigns have become clear. The last straw was a ludicrous food gift box sent out as a bribe around the country containing salami and wines asking for people to vote for him.
Orbans use of fear tactics, trying to blame Ukraine and Zelesnky personally for problems in Hungary (the capital was plastered in posters with the President on them), added to the utterly incompetent false flag gas pipeline attack being foiled, became redolent with authoritarian farce. Even Serbia’s president said pointedly it had nothing to do with Ukraine which took the wind out of Orban’s sails.
Orban’s desperation was patently obvious. He would have fought the results if they had been more even – but the scale of the defeat – almost 70:30 against him has left him with only the few protections of being an MP. He has a month to try and protect himself. Three of his ministers have allegedly fled.
The new prime minister elect is already promising investigations – especially of the Foreign Minister, Peter Szillarto, who committed treason conspiring with the Russians.
The EU president, Ursuala von der Layen, who loathes Orban and his mysoginist attitudes never mind his political leanings, was so quick congratulating the winner he’d barely finished speaking.
This election however is far more significant for what it means for the EU and Ukraine and the signal it sends to the Kremlin, to MAGA and the other right wing parties around Europe who think they’re on the ascendent. Orban was their hero. He was the first, he inspired them, his anti-liberal pro-christian rhetoric won many supporters. It was a message that wore off in Poland. Its almost horrific for the right to imagine a world without Orban causing trouble and worshipping at Putin’s altar.
Robert Fico of Slovakia (on yet another ‘holiday’ in Vietnam) promised to carry Orban’s flag. He’ll find that much harder to do. The EU can suspend one country voting to stop everyone else – not so easy doing that when there were two of them. Ukraine will get its €90 billion – something the Russians are deeply angry about.
Yet it’s what it means for Russia thats most damning. It tells Maga that Trump can be defeated, but it’s another massive failure for Russia in disrupting Europe. They failed twice in Moldova, once in Rumania, they lost Maduro in Venezuela, Iran is a mess, Cuba barely gets by day to day, Syria is lost, their proxies in the Sahel and Sudan have failed to take things in Russias direction. Ukraine has Moscow wondering how it got to be like this and what went wrong.
Russia’s economy is crumbling as fast as its infrastructure. The state deficit for the year was targeted at $46 billion – its already $48 billion at then end of the first quarter. There’s talk of a sudden peace talks breakthrough – I remain skeptical. Everywhere Russia looks its failing to undermine the resolve of Europe, it looks foolish in the eyes of its supposed allies and support for the war even among hardliners is crashing. Losing Orban has Russian Z-bloggers distraught. It’s just another nail in their coffin as they see it. They credit the EU leadership with masterful political maneuvering. The only maneuvers were to let the Hungarians decide for themselves without any interference of any kind.
There’s an old adage that the best way to convince people right wingers are useless at government is to let them try. They soon prove how rubbish they are at it. The County Council’s in the UK run by them are quickly demonstrating that fact, just as Orban ultimately did, Trump is, and Putin has spectacularly proven.
This is not the death knell of the extreme right wing. Far from it. It is perhaps the end of the beginning. It’s a bright light for everyone looking to protect their democracy, a symbol that fighting backs is absolutely worth it, that the darkest part of night is just before the dawn. The majority of Hungarians woke up. In November Americans have an opportunity to decisively sweep away the lethargy that’s infected Congress and move forwards. Who knows what might be achieved? When totemic leaders fall, the others quiver, it shatters their illusions, it strikes fear into them. The people are coming for you, and they’ve had enough.
The Analyst
militaryanalyst@bsky.social
The Military Analyst 