WHERE NEXT? NATO & AMERICA

The Oslo Security Conference highlights European discontent over the US withdrawal from the WHO and foreign policy shifts. Discussions involve NATO’s future without the US, support for Ukraine, and the need for European collaboration amidst growing tensions with Russia.

THE ROAD TO HELL & VICTORY HOW THE WAR CHANGED 2022-26

The content chronicles the evolution of the Ukraine-Russia war from February 2022 to early 2026. It emphasizes Ukraine’s resilience, military innovation, and the dire consequences of Russian mismanagement, ultimately forecasting Russia’s impending defeat due to a diminishing arsenal and leadership detachment.

POST-DAVOS 2026

At Davos, three significant speeches emerged. Mark Carney’s resonated as a potential blueprint for Europe’s future, while President Zelensky energized discussions on leadership. This pivotal moment highlights the urgency for nations to adapt in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

DAVOS: SECRETS, MONEY, POWER & POLICY

Davos is hosting a historic event with global leaders, including Trump and Prime Minister Starmer, focusing on geopolitical tensions and economic collaboration. Trump’s controversial stance on Greenland raises concerns, reflecting broader issues in world trade and the shifting international landscape that requires unity among European nations.

END OF AN ERA: US NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY PRO RUSSIA, ANTI EUROPE

The U.S. National Security Strategy document has sparked outrage among some GOP senators for neglecting Russia as a threat and vilifying democratic Europe. The policy signals a stark shift to isolationism and a radical undermining of NATO.

ONE WEAPON COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING FOR UKRAINE; & ITS RUSSIAN

The Russian Novotor cruise missile has a history that if Ukraine plays its cards well, could see it equipped with Tomahawks, but is also a threat to NATO

THE REAL STORY: HOW NATO ENDED RUSSIAS ESTONIAN AIR INCURSIONS

NATO had had enough. It was time to teach the Russians a lesson and make it plain these air incursions were no longer going to be tolerated. When the Russians obliged NATO sprang its trap. This is what happened.

WHY UKRAINE WILL WIN & RUSSIA WILL LOSE

The post argues that Ukraine’s alliance with Western nations has strengthened its military capabilities against Russia, whose failures in industry and true alliances are evident. Ukraine’s innovation positions it to emerge as a major power in Europe post-war.

SOMETHING IS CHANGING AND RUSSIA IS LOSING

The situation in Russia is changing and I believe the war is now lost. They must now be convinced they’ve been defeated, and bring it to an end.

NATO: STANDING UP TO PUTIN

Europe must decide to shoot down Russian aircraft that blatantly enter NATO airspace and make it clear to Russia we intend to do so. This is why…

UKRAINE WILL WIN

The analysis highlights Trump’s inadequate support for Ukraine, contrasting it with the critical impacts of US military aid. Despite past defeats, Ukraine is now better equipped and poised for victory, thanks to increased assistance and innovative strategies.

TRUMP UNDER PRESSURE DOES THE MINIMUM

Tump blew hard but did next to nothing to help Ukraine, leaving Russia almost a four month window to exploit. Moscow rejoiced at the weak response over sanctions, but the weapons on the way to Ukraine can only hurt Russia even more.

IMPACT OF THE NORTHWOOD DECLARATION on European Security

The Northwood Declaration, signed by Macron and Starmer, establishes a significant Anglo-French nuclear partnership, affirming joint defense commitments in response to threats, while emphasizing independent capabilities. This strengthens Europe’s security amid changing global alliances and addresses Russian aggression.

Reimagining NATO: Can Europe Stand Alone?

The NATO summit prompted reflection on NATO’s future, revealing vulnerabilities and lessons learned regarding military readiness. The necessity for European self-reliance and a choice between continued reliance on the U.S. or a new path for defense strategy is emphasized.

WHY RUSSIA WON’T WIN

The post discusses Russia’s significant military challenges in Ukraine and its dwindling resources, contrasting historical perceptions of Russian power with current failures. It predicts Ukraine’s eventual victory, citing international support and Russia’s declining position.

FLASHPOINT: TANKER TENSIONS

Western sanctions have successfully targeted over 700 Russian grey fleet tankers, significantly impacting oil exports. Despite risks, Russia may engage more aggressively to safeguard these vessels, highlighting broader economic vulnerabilities and reduced operational capacity.

PUTIN ROLLS THE DICE

The events of May 11-19, 2025, signify a critical juncture in the Russo-Ukrainian War, highlighting Putin’s miscalculations, failed negotiations, and Ukraine’s strengthened military preparedness for upcoming confrontations, signaling a pivotal shift in the conflict.

GLOBAL OVERVIEW: CHANGE & CONFLICT

The 80th anniversary of WW2’s end highlights America’s decline and Russia’s facade of strength amidst internal turmoil. Global conflicts persist, with Europe possibly rising to fill the power vacuum left by the faltering U.S.

WHAT NEXT FOR UKRAINE?

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues. Russian drone & missile attacks targeting civilians increase. Ukraine is improving its defenses, producing equipment domestically, and maintaining resilience, while navigating complex international dynamics, including U.S. politics and support.

RUSSIA’S NEXT WAR?

Russia is militarizing its border with NATO, preparing for potential conflicts while maintaining ambitions for expansion. Bolstered by an aggressive economy, it seeks test case wars, notably in the Baltic, to gauge NATO’s response and exploit perceived weaknesses.

DISENGAGING AMERICA: NATO

The Western world is split on disengaging from the US, with Japan and South Korea relying on American protection against China, while Europe+ faces challenges with Russia. The argument emphasizes Europe’s need for self-reliance and a restructured NATO without US control.

ARMING EUROPE? CAN IT GO IT ALONE?

European defense manufacturers are thriving due to distrust in the US under Trump, prompting a shift towards domestic military procurement. The EU plans to invest €800 billion, enhancing economic growth and defense capabilities across member states.

BIG UKRAINIAN ARMY CHANGES

The post discusses Ukraine’s military struggles and criticisms, detailing coordination issues, the implementation of Army Corps for improved command structures, and the challenges of maintaining effective communication and morale among diverse brigades during ongoing conflict.

THE GREAT BETRAYAL: IT’S ALL ABOUT CHINA

Kissinger knew what was doing in 1971, peeling a disgruntled China from Soviet power was relatively simple. Trump hasn’t a clue what he’s doing trying to peel Russia from China in todays radically shifted geopolitical world.

UKRAINE’S SPY SATELLITE DEPENDENCY IS OURS TOO

The current geopolitical climate, particularly in space, is rapidly evolving. The U.S. satellite capabilities are limited and overshadowed by emerging commercial options, urging Europe to enhance its own satellite resources for better intelligence sharing and security.

PUTIN CARRIES ON REGARDLESS

Putin miscalculated the fallout from his Ukraine invasion, leading to a united Europe supporting Ukraine. Despite bluster and supply issues, Russia risks economic collapse while clinging to a prolonged conflict amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics.

NUKES ARE THE ANSWER – MANY SEE NO CHOICE

The return of Cold War tensions is disappointing, with nations like Poland considering nuclear arms due to distrust in American support. As global dynamics shift, nuclear proliferation may increase, posing serious implications for future security.

FALL: AMERICA’S EMPIRE IN DECLINE

Empires rise and fall primarily through military power and trade dominance. The text explores the decline of empires, emphasizing the current fragility of American influence stemming from recent policies and diminished alliances.

EUROPE+: THE NEW AGE OF EUROPEAN DEFENCE TAKES SHAPE

In a week of significant political turmoil, Ukraine’s ally responses crystallized amid concerns over America’s NATO involvement. Calls for a more independent European defense framework emerged, highlighting the need for institutional reforms and enhanced military capabilities.

THE NOT SO ROCKY ROAD AHEAD FOR UKRAINE

The U.S. aims for peace with Russia, compromising Ukraine’s military support. Ukraine, while producing more arms domestically, struggles without American intelligence. European backing remains strong, but the future is uncertain amidst ongoing pressures and demands.

EUROPE STANDS UP: DEFENCE IS ITS PRIORITY

European leaders are collaborating on defense strategies, focusing on Ukraine, as the UK plans to enhance military capabilities. The EU’s €800 billion plan seeks to bolster NATO and support Ukraine, despite challenges from the US.

WELCOME TO THE NEW WORLD ORDER

The United Nations ideals demolished as American leadership shifted towards authoritarianism, undermining global democratic efforts. European nations seek independence from the U.S. while emphasizing Ukraine’s resilience against Russia despite internal challenges.

THE WORLD HAS CHANGED FOREVER

The article argues that the global order has drastically shifted, particularly after the U.S. presidency’s failure to maintain alliances and uphold democracy. The author emphasizes the need for resilience and cooperation among allies in facing new geopolitical challenges.

WHAT EUROPE NEEDS TO DO TO WIN

A unified European military, equipped with advanced reconnaissance and communication systems, could effectively counter a Russian invasion, but must enhance air defense and logistics capabilities while fostering trust and cooperation amongst member nations for optimal preparedness.

THE NUCLEAR PROBLEM: EUROPE, UKRAINE & US WITHDRAWAL

The potential U.S. military withdrawal from Europe raises concerns about nuclear deterrence, necessitating European collaboration. France and the UK may need to integrate their nuclear capabilities, while Ukraine contemplates developing its own deterrent amid ongoing threats.

RUSSIANS HIT BY UKRAINIANS AT POKROVSK

In recent special operations, Ukrainian forces regained key positions near Pokrovsk, addressing issues in troop leadership and morale. While facing effective Russian attacks, they consider strategies to improve defense against glide bombs and sustain control.

A UNITED EUROPEAN MILITARY AT LAST?

The long-standing idea of a European unified military command encounters challenges due to NATO’s established dominance. Historical tensions around national sovereignty impede progress, while current geopolitical dynamics emphasize the need for Europe to strengthen its defense capabilities independently.

UKRAINE: A BETTER POSITION THAN RUSSIA

The Munich aftermath: Ukraine’s strong position contrasts with Russia’s struggles. Europe and Ukraine’s newfound unity could reshape negotiations, as Ukraine asserts its independence and military strength against Russian aggression. Europe finds its voice at last.

AMERICAN DEFENSE – LIKE IT OR NOT WHAT THEY SPEND MATTERS

The new Congress plans to increase defense spending by $200 billion but faces funding challenges and potential cuts. Congress debates the necessity of large carriers versus smaller, more versatile platforms amid rising concerns over efficiency and competition with China.

PUTIN PLAYS HIS OPENING GAMBIT FOR PEACE TALKS

Putin’s statements on peace talks reflect strategic posturing amidst ongoing conflict. While expressing willingness to negotiate, he imposes unrealistic conditions, undermining Ukraine and questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy, complicating any potential discussions on resolution.

SIXTH GEN FIGHTERS: THE RACE IS ON

Various nations, including the US, China, and European countries, are racing to develop a Sixth Generation fighter aircraft, focusing on advanced capabilities and AI integration, despite escalating costs and strategic challenges in maintaining technological superiority.

WAR & PEACE: WHY A DIPLOMATIC END IS UNLIKELY

The ongoing war in Ukraine signifies a complicated reality where peace is unlikely without definitive outcomes. Options include Russia’s complete victory, Ukraine’s outright success, or a change in Putin’s regime, with trust issues remaining central.

UKRAINIAN DETERRENCE

The content discusses various levels of deterrence in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, highlighting Ukraine’s effective strategies, such as naval operations and attacks on Crimea, which have significantly altered Russia’s military posture and capabilities.

NATO’s TACTICAL NUCLEAR UPGRADE

On December 18, 2024, the U.S. completed a $9 billion nuclear warhead upgrade, modernizing the B-61-12. Despite various safeguards, NATO’s consensus requirement for use complicates effective deterrence against Russian threats in crisis situations.

UKRAINE’S MID-LONG RANGE STRATEGY

Ukraine’s missile and drone strategy has rapidly evolved in response to the war, developing advanced capabilities and targeting key Russian assets, fundamentally altering future warfare concepts, and providing lessons for Western militaries on agility and innovation in arms development.

RUSSIA: RELAPSE, REBUILD & REVENGE. WILL THE CYCLE REPEAT?

The long-term implications of Russia’s military failures and its inability to rebuild effectively post-war. It predicts a cycle of decline for Russia, emphasizing the importance of Ukraine’s military innovation and support from the West to prevent future aggression.

POLAND’S MILITARY MODERNISES: A RISING NATO POWER

Poland, historically victimized by its neighbors, is now intensifying its military capabilities amid fears of Russian aggression. With plans for significant military expansion and modernization, Poland aims to become NATO’s leading military power in Europe by 2035.

PUTIN V. TRUMP: BATTLE FOR UKRAINE’S LEGACY

As Trump takes office, the shifting geopolitical landscape centers on the war in Ukraine. Putin’s ambitions and internal struggles heighten tensions, complicating potential negotiations. Acknowledgment of Ukraine’s sovereignty is critical and proactive measures by the West remain vital for stability

RUSSIANS FACE TOUGH COUNTERATTACKS AS UKRAINIANS FIGHT BACK

The situation on the frontlines overall, is one of incremental but small gains for Russia. Their losses have been monumental – exceeding 80,000 in two months, far above their ability to replace them. The situation in Kursk continues to deteriorate as Russians eventually push their way from the north and west towards Malaya Locknya. The […]

UKRAINE’S DEFENCE STRATEGIES AGAINST IRBM MISSILES

What can Ukraine use to defend itself from IRBM type missiles? First of all we have to look at what the Russians are using. It appears to be a derivative of the RS-26 Rubezh missile the Russians are calling Orezhnik. This appears to be the upper two propulsion stages and the warhead bus. In range […]