2025: THE YEAR THE WAR RADICALLY CHANGED

The war has changed dramatically, from the main players, to the politics, to the battlefield. But perhaps more than ever on the strategic economic front where Russia is bleeding slowly to death.

HOW EUROPE WINS & AMERICA LOSES IF THEY WITHDRAW

Its time I think, to face the bottom line of what happens if America actually withdraws from Europe – I’ll tell you why its unlikely to go and why we shouldn’t be too bothered if it did leave militarily. Europe+ is a group of willing nations. We have the problem of Hungary, a nation so […]

END OF AN ERA: US NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY PRO RUSSIA, ANTI EUROPE

The U.S. National Security Strategy document has sparked outrage among some GOP senators for neglecting Russia as a threat and vilifying democratic Europe. The policy signals a stark shift to isolationism and a radical undermining of NATO.

SUPPORTING UKRAINE WITHOUT AMERICA

The article discusses Europe’s challenges in supporting Ukraine if U.S. aid ceases, emphasizing the need for cooperation in defense capabilities, intelligence sharing, and military supplies, while addressing procurement issues and evolving warfare demands for long-term security.

FP-5 FLAMINGO UPDATE

#UkrainianView
FP-5 Flamingo is now just a month from IOC, and Ukraine starts to exceed Russian capabilities, it’s a watershed moment in the war as a whole. Meanwhile Russian system fail as budgets are slashed.

GOLD: THE LAST GAMBLE OF A DESPERATE RUSSIA

Selling off the gold reserves is a sign of severe economic distress, and there’s no way to normalize such a move. Russian & Putin are nearing end game and the oligarchs know it.

ITS A MATTER OF PRINCIPLES

Principles matter, they are the core of everything. If we don’t abide by our own, what are we? Not just as individuals but as nations. Ukraine stands on principle and so must we.
How this mess of a peace document happened is as much about a lack of them, as fighting it is about keeping to them.

ONE WEAPON COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING FOR UKRAINE; & ITS RUSSIAN

The Russian Novotor cruise missile has a history that if Ukraine plays its cards well, could see it equipped with Tomahawks, but is also a threat to NATO

THE REAL STORY: HOW NATO ENDED RUSSIAS ESTONIAN AIR INCURSIONS

NATO had had enough. It was time to teach the Russians a lesson and make it plain these air incursions were no longer going to be tolerated. When the Russians obliged NATO sprang its trap. This is what happened.

RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR LUNACY

The Russians measure their worth by nuclear weapons. They have done for nearly 80 years. It merely masks their innate inadequacies. Yet its the most dangerous and potentially worrying aspect of their approach to the world around them.

POST-WAR RUSSIA: A SCENARIO

Putin is dead, the regime paralyzed, which of the former empire’s republics will rush for independence?

WHY UKRAINE WILL WIN & RUSSIA WILL LOSE

The post argues that Ukraine’s alliance with Western nations has strengthened its military capabilities against Russia, whose failures in industry and true alliances are evident. Ukraine’s innovation positions it to emerge as a major power in Europe post-war.

THE CRIMEA GAMBIT: UKRAINE’S STRATEGY FOR ITS RETURN

Ukraine has carried out a successful war against the Russians across Crimea, effectively neutralizing it as an operating military resource and attritting countless russian weapons and EW/radar systems at low cost. Its eventual return is the goal.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN DEATH SPIRAL

After World War 2, the Netherlands thrived economically due to natural gas, leading to what economists call ‘Dutch Disease.’ Conversely, Russia’s reliance on resource extraction under Putin resulted in economic decline and impending crisis amid ongoing military conflict and sanctions that may soon bring Russias doom.

SOMETHING IS CHANGING AND RUSSIA IS LOSING

The situation in Russia is changing and I believe the war is now lost. They must now be convinced they’ve been defeated, and bring it to an end.

NATO: STANDING UP TO PUTIN

Europe must decide to shoot down Russian aircraft that blatantly enter NATO airspace and make it clear to Russia we intend to do so. This is why…

KINETIC SANCTIONS & ECONOMIC STRIFE

Russian’s are feeling the impact of Ukraine’s strategic strikes, the oil industry is in a mess and Russia increasingly desperate to stop the situation getting out of control.

RUSSIA IS DYING & THERE’S NO GOING BACK

The post discusses the doom cycle of Russia’s population collapse, the ethnic disparities and Russia’s self identity, now in danger. Putin’s regime has created a dire predicament there’s no coming back from.

RUSSIA’S ARMY: CORRUPTION, BARBARITY & INCENTIVISED TO FAIL

Russias Army is in a ruinous state, held together by fear, bribery and corruption.It must surely break under its own failures and basic inhumanity. Morally bankrupt and brutal, it’s creaking under the weight of its own mismanagement.

THE ANGLO-GERMAN DEFENCE PACT

The article discusses the significance of recent UK-Germany defense treaties in response to escalating security concerns, particularly regarding Russia, emphasizing the need for rapid drone development and military cooperation in Europe amid global instability.

UKRAINE WILL WIN

The analysis highlights Trump’s inadequate support for Ukraine, contrasting it with the critical impacts of US military aid. Despite past defeats, Ukraine is now better equipped and poised for victory, thanks to increased assistance and innovative strategies.

TRUMP UNDER PRESSURE DOES THE MINIMUM

Tump blew hard but did next to nothing to help Ukraine, leaving Russia almost a four month window to exploit. Moscow rejoiced at the weak response over sanctions, but the weapons on the way to Ukraine can only hurt Russia even more.

IMPACT OF THE NORTHWOOD DECLARATION on European Security

The Northwood Declaration, signed by Macron and Starmer, establishes a significant Anglo-French nuclear partnership, affirming joint defense commitments in response to threats, while emphasizing independent capabilities. This strengthens Europe’s security amid changing global alliances and addresses Russian aggression.

PUTIN’S REGIME STARTS TO CRACK

Putin’s regime is facing multiple issues simultaneously, a long expected series of events that show the regime is making mistakes and Putin is not as strong as western observers think he is.

PUTIN’S WEAKEST MOMENT TELLS US THE END IS COMING

Putin’s recent address highlights his concerns about Russia’s deteriorating war, economic situation, and public discontent. His proposed defense spending cuts appear as empty promises, reflecting his fear of losing support amid growing hardships for citizens.

Reimagining NATO: Can Europe Stand Alone?

The NATO summit prompted reflection on NATO’s future, revealing vulnerabilities and lessons learned regarding military readiness. The necessity for European self-reliance and a choice between continued reliance on the U.S. or a new path for defense strategy is emphasized.

UKRAINE HOLDS BACK RUSSIAN OFFENSIVES

Russia’s summer offensive has faltered, facing logistical issues, outdated artillery, and significant troop losses. While Ukrainian forces continue to hold their ground, Russia struggles with supply and morale, leading to dire circumstances for its soldiers.

WHY RUSSIA WON’T WIN

The post discusses Russia’s significant military challenges in Ukraine and its dwindling resources, contrasting historical perceptions of Russian power with current failures. It predicts Ukraine’s eventual victory, citing international support and Russia’s declining position.

WHO IS WINNING THE WAR?

The analysis outlines the complexities of the Ukraine-Russia war, highlighting Ukraine’s initial victories, subsequent setbacks, and evolving challenges. It emphasizes Russia’s economic decline and Ukraine’s resilient strategies, forecasting Russia’s eventual collapse despite territorial gains.

FLASHPOINT: TANKER TENSIONS

Western sanctions have successfully targeted over 700 Russian grey fleet tankers, significantly impacting oil exports. Despite risks, Russia may engage more aggressively to safeguard these vessels, highlighting broader economic vulnerabilities and reduced operational capacity.

RUSSO-UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATIONS

The very way in which Ukraine became independent is worth anyone’s reading time. It was semi-chaotic and took the Russians completely off guard – it really wasn’t what Moscow was expecting, and the arguments over who got control of the Black Sea Fleet came close to fighting breaking out. Yet in the end the Ukrainians […]

GLOBAL OVERVIEW: CHANGE & CONFLICT

The 80th anniversary of WW2’s end highlights America’s decline and Russia’s facade of strength amidst internal turmoil. Global conflicts persist, with Europe possibly rising to fill the power vacuum left by the faltering U.S.

EUROPE+ LOOKS TO LONG RANGE WEAPONS

The Ukraine war highlights the necessity of long-range weapons, prompting NATO and Europe+ nations to enhance their strategic arsenals. Collaborative projects like ELSA aim to develop effective systems, demonstrating urgency and cooperation amid evolving threats.

WHAT NEXT FOR UKRAINE?

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues. Russian drone & missile attacks targeting civilians increase. Ukraine is improving its defenses, producing equipment domestically, and maintaining resilience, while navigating complex international dynamics, including U.S. politics and support.

RUSSIA’S NEXT WAR?

Russia is militarizing its border with NATO, preparing for potential conflicts while maintaining ambitions for expansion. Bolstered by an aggressive economy, it seeks test case wars, notably in the Baltic, to gauge NATO’s response and exploit perceived weaknesses.

DISENGAGING AMERICA: NATO

The Western world is split on disengaging from the US, with Japan and South Korea relying on American protection against China, while Europe+ faces challenges with Russia. The argument emphasizes Europe’s need for self-reliance and a restructured NATO without US control.

THE TAURUS CONUNDRUM

The Taurus missile, featuring the advanced MEPHISTO warhead, offers precision strike capabilities. However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declined to supply them to Ukraine due to escalation risks. Now things have changed and the new Chancellor is going ahead.

ARMING EUROPE? CAN IT GO IT ALONE?

European defense manufacturers are thriving due to distrust in the US under Trump, prompting a shift towards domestic military procurement. The EU plans to invest €800 billion, enhancing economic growth and defense capabilities across member states.

UKRAINIAN STRATEGY & TACTICS STYMIE RUSSIANS

The recent loss of an F-16 emphasizes Ukraine’s growing confidence in air strikes despite risks. Ukraine aims to deny Russian advances, but challenges remain due to Russian logistics and economy, potentially leading to significant shifts in power dynamics.

NOT LONG NOW: OIL IS RUSSIA’S ACHILLES HEEL

Achilles, a legendary Greek warrior, symbolizes invulnerability with his ‘Achilles heel.’ Russia, relying heavily on oil, faces economic disaster due to falling prices, military stalemates, and a struggle for survival amid systemic corruption and leadership failure.

US DISENGAGING FROM NATO SPARKS AMERICAN ANGST

General Cavolli’s Senate testimony highlighted concerns over U.S. military withdrawal from Europe, nuclear command issues, and shifting defense strategies. The perceived diminishing U.S. role may lead Europeans to seek self-reliance in defense procurement, significantly impacting U.S. influence.

BIG UKRAINIAN ARMY CHANGES

The post discusses Ukraine’s military struggles and criticisms, detailing coordination issues, the implementation of Army Corps for improved command structures, and the challenges of maintaining effective communication and morale among diverse brigades during ongoing conflict.

UKRAINE’S COUNTER ATTACKS GAIN MOMENTUM

Ukrainian forces, under new command, have successfully recaptured ground along the eastern front. Russia faces manpower shortages and logistical issues, indicating significant weaknesses. Ukraine’s recent advances have boosted morale, while their air power continues to improve.

UKRAINE CAN WIN

Talks in Saudi Arabia aim to resolve the ongoing war, but both Russia and Ukraine remain deadlocked. Ukraine’s prolonged strategies focus on gaining time and resource depletion, fully supported by Europe+ like never before. Ignoring them is a huge strategic error.

THE GREAT BETRAYAL: IT’S ALL ABOUT CHINA

Kissinger knew what was doing in 1971, peeling a disgruntled China from Soviet power was relatively simple. Trump hasn’t a clue what he’s doing trying to peel Russia from China in todays radically shifted geopolitical world.

UKRAINE’S SPY SATELLITE DEPENDENCY IS OURS TOO

The current geopolitical climate, particularly in space, is rapidly evolving. The U.S. satellite capabilities are limited and overshadowed by emerging commercial options, urging Europe to enhance its own satellite resources for better intelligence sharing and security.

TOTAL FAILURE: THE ART OF NO DEAL

Trump’s failure to negotiate effectively with Putin led to minimal gains for Ukraine and significant concessions to Russia. Despite this, Ukraine’s resilience and Europe’s support signal a potential shift, indicating a stronger future for Ukraine.

EUROPE ISN’T WASTING TIME

European nations, led by Germany and Poland, are significantly increasing defense spending in response to geopolitical pressures. A notable shift is occurring as Europe mobilizes military aid for Ukraine, signaling a newfound commitment to defense.

PUTIN CARRIES ON REGARDLESS

Putin miscalculated the fallout from his Ukraine invasion, leading to a united Europe supporting Ukraine. Despite bluster and supply issues, Russia risks economic collapse while clinging to a prolonged conflict amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics.

NUKES ARE THE ANSWER – MANY SEE NO CHOICE

The return of Cold War tensions is disappointing, with nations like Poland considering nuclear arms due to distrust in American support. As global dynamics shift, nuclear proliferation may increase, posing serious implications for future security.

FALL: AMERICA’S EMPIRE IN DECLINE

Empires rise and fall primarily through military power and trade dominance. The text explores the decline of empires, emphasizing the current fragility of American influence stemming from recent policies and diminished alliances.

THE END OF THE KURSK ADVENTURE

The Kursk Campaign, initially seen as a morale boost for Ukraine, has led to significant territorial gains but overconfidence resulted in strategic errors. Russian forces have regained momentum, suggesting an impending Ukrainian withdrawal amid talk of a ceasefire.

EUROPE+: THE NEW AGE OF EUROPEAN DEFENCE TAKES SHAPE

In a week of significant political turmoil, Ukraine’s ally responses crystallized amid concerns over America’s NATO involvement. Calls for a more independent European defense framework emerged, highlighting the need for institutional reforms and enhanced military capabilities.

THE NOT SO ROCKY ROAD AHEAD FOR UKRAINE

The U.S. aims for peace with Russia, compromising Ukraine’s military support. Ukraine, while producing more arms domestically, struggles without American intelligence. European backing remains strong, but the future is uncertain amidst ongoing pressures and demands.

EUROPE STANDS UP: DEFENCE IS ITS PRIORITY

European leaders are collaborating on defense strategies, focusing on Ukraine, as the UK plans to enhance military capabilities. The EU’s €800 billion plan seeks to bolster NATO and support Ukraine, despite challenges from the US.

WELCOME TO THE NEW WORLD ORDER

The United Nations ideals demolished as American leadership shifted towards authoritarianism, undermining global democratic efforts. European nations seek independence from the U.S. while emphasizing Ukraine’s resilience against Russia despite internal challenges.

THE WORLD HAS CHANGED FOREVER

The article argues that the global order has drastically shifted, particularly after the U.S. presidency’s failure to maintain alliances and uphold democracy. The author emphasizes the need for resilience and cooperation among allies in facing new geopolitical challenges.

WHAT EUROPE NEEDS TO DO TO WIN

A unified European military, equipped with advanced reconnaissance and communication systems, could effectively counter a Russian invasion, but must enhance air defense and logistics capabilities while fostering trust and cooperation amongst member nations for optimal preparedness.

THE NUCLEAR PROBLEM: EUROPE, UKRAINE & US WITHDRAWAL

The potential U.S. military withdrawal from Europe raises concerns about nuclear deterrence, necessitating European collaboration. France and the UK may need to integrate their nuclear capabilities, while Ukraine contemplates developing its own deterrent amid ongoing threats.

RUSSIANS HIT BY UKRAINIANS AT POKROVSK

In recent special operations, Ukrainian forces regained key positions near Pokrovsk, addressing issues in troop leadership and morale. While facing effective Russian attacks, they consider strategies to improve defense against glide bombs and sustain control.

A UNITED EUROPEAN MILITARY AT LAST?

The long-standing idea of a European unified military command encounters challenges due to NATO’s established dominance. Historical tensions around national sovereignty impede progress, while current geopolitical dynamics emphasize the need for Europe to strengthen its defense capabilities independently.

UKRAINE: A BETTER POSITION THAN RUSSIA

The Munich aftermath: Ukraine’s strong position contrasts with Russia’s struggles. Europe and Ukraine’s newfound unity could reshape negotiations, as Ukraine asserts its independence and military strength against Russian aggression. Europe finds its voice at last.

RUSSIAN BANKING COLLAPSE INEVITABLE

Russia’s war funding shows deep economic troubles, with state finances rapidly crumbling under rising costs and sanctions. Putin faces imminent banking collapse while facing dwindling resources. Continuous conflict risks worsening economic despair amidst international opposition.

AMERICAN DEFENSE – LIKE IT OR NOT WHAT THEY SPEND MATTERS

The new Congress plans to increase defense spending by $200 billion but faces funding challenges and potential cuts. Congress debates the necessity of large carriers versus smaller, more versatile platforms amid rising concerns over efficiency and competition with China.

PUTIN PLAYS HIS OPENING GAMBIT FOR PEACE TALKS

Putin’s statements on peace talks reflect strategic posturing amidst ongoing conflict. While expressing willingness to negotiate, he imposes unrealistic conditions, undermining Ukraine and questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy, complicating any potential discussions on resolution.

CHINA: TAIWAN INVASION IS INEVITABLE

The Chinese military is rapidly advancing towards an invasion capability of Taiwan, driven by economic turmoil, with military preparation expected to peak by 2027. Taiwan’s defenses face substantial challenges amid growing geopolitical tensions.

ROCKY ROAD TO A ‘PEACE DEAL’

The US Administration has tasked Ambassador Keith Kellog with negotiating peace in Ukraine within 100 days. While Russia believes it can achieve breakthroughs by autumn, significant economic challenges may affect Putin’s decisions amidst mounting pressure and potential sanctions from the US.

SIXTH GEN FIGHTERS: THE RACE IS ON

Various nations, including the US, China, and European countries, are racing to develop a Sixth Generation fighter aircraft, focusing on advanced capabilities and AI integration, despite escalating costs and strategic challenges in maintaining technological superiority.

WAR & PEACE: WHY A DIPLOMATIC END IS UNLIKELY

The ongoing war in Ukraine signifies a complicated reality where peace is unlikely without definitive outcomes. Options include Russia’s complete victory, Ukraine’s outright success, or a change in Putin’s regime, with trust issues remaining central.

ECONOMIC REVELATIONS: RUSSIA IS WORSE OFF THAN WE THINK

A recent analysis highlights severe issues in the Russian financial system due to the Kremlin’s forced loans to the armaments industry, risking a major economic crisis exacerbated by sanctions and unsustainable borrowing, potentially leading to widespread bankruptcy.

UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION

The author expresses frustration with Ukraine’s youth’s lack of engagement in defense efforts, emphasizing ineffective mobilization policies and poor messaging, while urging the importance of their participation in the war for the nation’s future.

THE ECONOMIC VICTORY UKRAINE CAN WIN

Compares historical wars Ukraine’s struggle against Russia, emphasizing resilience and adapting strategies. Ukraine’s economy and defense industries are surprisingly thriving despite adversity, resembling historical battles where underestimating opponents led to failure.

THE AIR WAR: CAN UKRAINE CHANGE ANYTHING?

This article analyzes the current status and effectiveness of Ukraine’s air force, detailing various aircraft in service, their limitations, and the challenges faced in achieving air superiority against Russian forces amidst ongoing conflict.

UKRAINIAN DETERRENCE

The content discusses various levels of deterrence in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, highlighting Ukraine’s effective strategies, such as naval operations and attacks on Crimea, which have significantly altered Russia’s military posture and capabilities.

NATO’s TACTICAL NUCLEAR UPGRADE

On December 18, 2024, the U.S. completed a $9 billion nuclear warhead upgrade, modernizing the B-61-12. Despite various safeguards, NATO’s consensus requirement for use complicates effective deterrence against Russian threats in crisis situations.

VICTORY? I THINK NOT

The ongoing war in Ukraine has seen significant Russian losses and failed strategies despite Putin’s claims of progress. The situation reflects increasing desperation and state control in Russia, with dire economic consequences even as Putin celebrates.

ARMS, AUTARKY & AGGRESSION

This is a little different, my thoughts on the history of Russia somewhat concatenated and shortened, as to why I think doom awaits Putin and Russia. Why what it does is nothing new and will end the same way it always has.

PUTIN UNDER PRESSURE

Putin’ aimed to project stability amidst economic turmoil, revealing inflation concerns and interest rates maintained at 21%. War has exacerbated issues, affecting transport and manufacturing. Public pressure mounts as realities of conflict worsen.

PEACE TALKS? THE RUSSIA PROBLEM

The post discusses the complex dynamics of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine amid ongoing conflict. It emphasizes Russia’s deceptive tactics and the necessity for the West to stand firm while seeking a potential demilitarized zone as a compromise.

US LONG RANGE STRIKE STRATEGY

China and Russia’s advancements in hypersonic weapons have shifted military strategies, prompting the U.S. to develop systems like Dark Eagle for deterrence against emerging threats, particularly in the Pacific and Europe.

PUTIN’S RUSSIA WILL FALL

The article discusses the mounting internal and external pressures on the Russian regime, highlighting economic decline, military shortcomings, and geopolitical isolation. It concludes that awareness of these issues may lead to significant changes in Russia’s future.

FRONTLINES CONTINUE TO RETREAT UNDER PRESSURE

The current military situation in Ukraine remains tense, with significant Russian advances near Pokrovsk amidst heavy casualties. External geopolitical dynamics, especially concerning American aid and domestic pressure on Putin, further complicate the unfolding conflict.

MAKING SANCTIONS WORSE FOR RUSSIA

The next US administration’s strategies against Russia involve military aid and tightening sanctions to pressure Moscow. Efforts may focus on reducing Western corporations’ presence in Russia, monitoring oil smuggling, and restricting dual-use electronics to hinder military capabilities.

RUSSIA: RELAPSE, REBUILD & REVENGE. WILL THE CYCLE REPEAT?

The long-term implications of Russia’s military failures and its inability to rebuild effectively post-war. It predicts a cycle of decline for Russia, emphasizing the importance of Ukraine’s military innovation and support from the West to prevent future aggression.

THE AIR OF DESPERATION HANGS OVER RUSSIA

This weekend gone has been one of increasing desperation for Russia. The Kursk salient has been a catastrophic graveyard of Russian ambitions. Overwhelmed by tough defences, lack of equipment, lack of manpower, terrible planning and bad commanders, all under huge pressure from Putin personally. The mud has finally arrived and the weather is worse along […]

POLAND’S MILITARY MODERNISES: A RISING NATO POWER

Poland, historically victimized by its neighbors, is now intensifying its military capabilities amid fears of Russian aggression. With plans for significant military expansion and modernization, Poland aims to become NATO’s leading military power in Europe by 2035.

PUTIN V. TRUMP: BATTLE FOR UKRAINE’S LEGACY

As Trump takes office, the shifting geopolitical landscape centers on the war in Ukraine. Putin’s ambitions and internal struggles heighten tensions, complicating potential negotiations. Acknowledgment of Ukraine’s sovereignty is critical and proactive measures by the West remain vital for stability

UKRAINIAN & RUSSIAN TACTICS

Both sides use defined tactics to defend and attack. Are they locked in repeat?

RUSSIA’S ECONOMY WILL LOSE IT THE WAR

AS LONG AS WE KEEP SANCTIONS AND DON’T GIVE IN Imagine a vast but shallow lake. It’s sitting in the heat of runaway climate change, it’s water evaporating faster than the rivers that feed it can replace the water. That is today’s Russian economy. DECEPTION AND INFLATION The Russian people are being played. They have […]

Russian Military Struggles Amidst Sanctions and Warfare

THE GROUND WAR IS NOT GOING IN UKRAINE’S FAVOUR Ukraine struck into Russia with ATACMS both around Kursk and into Crimea yesterday. The Russians continued to make advances westward almost all along the front. Additional small gains were made in Kursk. Russians seem to be focusing on Kurakhove and preparing for another offensive operation to […]