2025: THE YEAR THE WAR RADICALLY CHANGED

The war has changed dramatically, from the main players, to the politics, to the battlefield. But perhaps more than ever on the strategic economic front where Russia is bleeding slowly to death.

END OF AN ERA: US NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY PRO RUSSIA, ANTI EUROPE

The U.S. National Security Strategy document has sparked outrage among some GOP senators for neglecting Russia as a threat and vilifying democratic Europe. The policy signals a stark shift to isolationism and a radical undermining of NATO.

ONE WEAPON COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING FOR UKRAINE; & ITS RUSSIAN

The Russian Novotor cruise missile has a history that if Ukraine plays its cards well, could see it equipped with Tomahawks, but is also a threat to NATO

THE REAL STORY: HOW NATO ENDED RUSSIAS ESTONIAN AIR INCURSIONS

NATO had had enough. It was time to teach the Russians a lesson and make it plain these air incursions were no longer going to be tolerated. When the Russians obliged NATO sprang its trap. This is what happened.

DANGER: PREPARING FOR THE WRONG WAR

The Analyst emphasizes the importance of understanding historical conflicts and their implications on current military strategies, arguing for proactive adaptations in warfare technology, particularly emphasizing the evolving role of drones and the need for constant development in defense systems.

NATO: STANDING UP TO PUTIN

Europe must decide to shoot down Russian aircraft that blatantly enter NATO airspace and make it clear to Russia we intend to do so. This is why…

UKRAINE WILL WIN

The analysis highlights Trump’s inadequate support for Ukraine, contrasting it with the critical impacts of US military aid. Despite past defeats, Ukraine is now better equipped and poised for victory, thanks to increased assistance and innovative strategies.

Reimagining NATO: Can Europe Stand Alone?

The NATO summit prompted reflection on NATO’s future, revealing vulnerabilities and lessons learned regarding military readiness. The necessity for European self-reliance and a choice between continued reliance on the U.S. or a new path for defense strategy is emphasized.

UK SUBMARINES & AUKUS: A NAVAL REVOLUTION?

The UK strategic defense review outlines ambitious plans for up to 12 AUKUS submarines, facing challenges like production capacity, financial constraints, and recruitment that could hinder timely implementation amid increasing global threats and the need for naval modernization.

FLASHPOINT: TANKER TENSIONS

Western sanctions have successfully targeted over 700 Russian grey fleet tankers, significantly impacting oil exports. Despite risks, Russia may engage more aggressively to safeguard these vessels, highlighting broader economic vulnerabilities and reduced operational capacity.

RUSSIA’S NEXT WAR?

Russia is militarizing its border with NATO, preparing for potential conflicts while maintaining ambitions for expansion. Bolstered by an aggressive economy, it seeks test case wars, notably in the Baltic, to gauge NATO’s response and exploit perceived weaknesses.

DISENGAGING AMERICA: NATO

The Western world is split on disengaging from the US, with Japan and South Korea relying on American protection against China, while Europe+ faces challenges with Russia. The argument emphasizes Europe’s need for self-reliance and a restructured NATO without US control.

US DISENGAGING FROM NATO SPARKS AMERICAN ANGST

General Cavolli’s Senate testimony highlighted concerns over U.S. military withdrawal from Europe, nuclear command issues, and shifting defense strategies. The perceived diminishing U.S. role may lead Europeans to seek self-reliance in defense procurement, significantly impacting U.S. influence.

THE GREAT BETRAYAL: IT’S ALL ABOUT CHINA

Kissinger knew what was doing in 1971, peeling a disgruntled China from Soviet power was relatively simple. Trump hasn’t a clue what he’s doing trying to peel Russia from China in todays radically shifted geopolitical world.

FALL: AMERICA’S EMPIRE IN DECLINE

Empires rise and fall primarily through military power and trade dominance. The text explores the decline of empires, emphasizing the current fragility of American influence stemming from recent policies and diminished alliances.

EUROPE STANDS UP: DEFENCE IS ITS PRIORITY

European leaders are collaborating on defense strategies, focusing on Ukraine, as the UK plans to enhance military capabilities. The EU’s €800 billion plan seeks to bolster NATO and support Ukraine, despite challenges from the US.

AMERICAN DEFENSE – LIKE IT OR NOT WHAT THEY SPEND MATTERS

The new Congress plans to increase defense spending by $200 billion but faces funding challenges and potential cuts. Congress debates the necessity of large carriers versus smaller, more versatile platforms amid rising concerns over efficiency and competition with China.

UKRAINE’S MID-LONG RANGE STRATEGY

Ukraine’s missile and drone strategy has rapidly evolved in response to the war, developing advanced capabilities and targeting key Russian assets, fundamentally altering future warfare concepts, and providing lessons for Western militaries on agility and innovation in arms development.

RUSSIA: RELAPSE, REBUILD & REVENGE. WILL THE CYCLE REPEAT?

The long-term implications of Russia’s military failures and its inability to rebuild effectively post-war. It predicts a cycle of decline for Russia, emphasizing the importance of Ukraine’s military innovation and support from the West to prevent future aggression.

THE AIR OF DESPERATION HANGS OVER RUSSIA

This weekend gone has been one of increasing desperation for Russia. The Kursk salient has been a catastrophic graveyard of Russian ambitions. Overwhelmed by tough defences, lack of equipment, lack of manpower, terrible planning and bad commanders, all under huge pressure from Putin personally. The mud has finally arrived and the weather is worse along […]

POLAND’S MILITARY MODERNISES: A RISING NATO POWER

Poland, historically victimized by its neighbors, is now intensifying its military capabilities amid fears of Russian aggression. With plans for significant military expansion and modernization, Poland aims to become NATO’s leading military power in Europe by 2035.

PUTIN V. TRUMP: BATTLE FOR UKRAINE’S LEGACY

As Trump takes office, the shifting geopolitical landscape centers on the war in Ukraine. Putin’s ambitions and internal struggles heighten tensions, complicating potential negotiations. Acknowledgment of Ukraine’s sovereignty is critical and proactive measures by the West remain vital for stability

RUSSIANS FACE TOUGH COUNTERATTACKS AS UKRAINIANS FIGHT BACK

The situation on the frontlines overall, is one of incremental but small gains for Russia. Their losses have been monumental – exceeding 80,000 in two months, far above their ability to replace them. The situation in Kursk continues to deteriorate as Russians eventually push their way from the north and west towards Malaya Locknya. The […]

UKRAINE’S DEFENCE STRATEGIES AGAINST IRBM MISSILES

What can Ukraine use to defend itself from IRBM type missiles? First of all we have to look at what the Russians are using. It appears to be a derivative of the RS-26 Rubezh missile the Russians are calling Orezhnik. This appears to be the upper two propulsion stages and the warhead bus. In range […]

THE RS26 RUBEZH IRBM

RS-26 Rubezh Overview The RS-26 Rubezh, also known as SS-X-31, (the x designates NATO considers it an experiment missile), is a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile in theory but an IRBM in practice, developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology. It is a road-mobile, solid-fueled missile designed for strategic nuclear deterrence and high-precision strikes on […]

RED LINE CROSSED, RUSSIA CHANGES ITS NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

Putin changes nuclear doctrine but nuclear weapons stay in their bunkers

GLOBAL COMS CABLES TARGETED

Russia steps up its attack on western internet communications

THE LONG RANGE MISSILE AUTHORISATION ANALYSED

This article was written by The Analyst, for the Military & Strategic Telegram Channel. The decision that came around 4pm in Washington DC and was quickly disseminated to relevant governments, then made public, has profound implications on one hand, if Russia is to be believed. On the other hand it’s just as likely to have […]