RUSSIA DROWNING IN A SEA OF OIL

With Russia facing severe sanctions impacting its economy, Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russia’s oil exports and refinery systems, threaten its financial stability and ability to sustain military operations amid fast declining oil revenues.

THE REAL STORY: HOW NATO ENDED RUSSIAS ESTONIAN AIR INCURSIONS

NATO had had enough. It was time to teach the Russians a lesson and make it plain these air incursions were no longer going to be tolerated. When the Russians obliged NATO sprang its trap. This is what happened.

RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR LUNACY

The Russians measure their worth by nuclear weapons. They have done for nearly 80 years. It merely masks their innate inadequacies. Yet its the most dangerous and potentially worrying aspect of their approach to the world around them.

SOMETHING IS CHANGING AND RUSSIA IS LOSING

The situation in Russia is changing and I believe the war is now lost. They must now be convinced they’ve been defeated, and bring it to an end.

UKRAINE’S NEW WEAPONS: RUSSIA, BE AFRAID!

Ukraine is about to receive some key weapons systems that are going to have a serious impact on the war against Russian aggression. The tables are turning.

CHINA: THE THREAT IS REAL

The threat from China and its single minded approach to produce the war equipment it needs to win against the US & its allies in the event of a conflict over Taiwan is a stark contrast to America. How is America ever expecting to save Taiwan?

AUKUS AT A CROSSROADS?

The AUKUS submarine deal faces uncertainty as the US struggles with its own submarine production goals. Australia risks a significant gap in defense capabilities, potentially delaying operational nuclear submarines until the late 2030s or longer.

CRISIS? WHAT CRISIS? PUTIN DOUBLES DOWN

The Russian government is attempting to conceal a looming financial crisis through restrictive laws on economic data. Defaults on loans are surging, and while trying to manage perceptions, the economic situation worsens, revealing deep inequities and a collapsing economy.

UKRAINE WILL WIN

The analysis highlights Trump’s inadequate support for Ukraine, contrasting it with the critical impacts of US military aid. Despite past defeats, Ukraine is now better equipped and poised for victory, thanks to increased assistance and innovative strategies.

TRUMP UNDER PRESSURE DOES THE MINIMUM

Tump blew hard but did next to nothing to help Ukraine, leaving Russia almost a four month window to exploit. Moscow rejoiced at the weak response over sanctions, but the weapons on the way to Ukraine can only hurt Russia even more.

IMPACT OF THE NORTHWOOD DECLARATION on European Security

The Northwood Declaration, signed by Macron and Starmer, establishes a significant Anglo-French nuclear partnership, affirming joint defense commitments in response to threats, while emphasizing independent capabilities. This strengthens Europe’s security amid changing global alliances and addresses Russian aggression.

IRAN: WHO WON? LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES

Who won the Iran-Israel conflict? What lessons have been learned and are they the right ones? The world enters a dangerous phase in human existence, stress at every point could lead to dangerous conflict almost anywhere.

Reimagining NATO: Can Europe Stand Alone?

The NATO summit prompted reflection on NATO’s future, revealing vulnerabilities and lessons learned regarding military readiness. The necessity for European self-reliance and a choice between continued reliance on the U.S. or a new path for defense strategy is emphasized.

UKRAINE HOLDS BACK RUSSIAN OFFENSIVES

Russia’s summer offensive has faltered, facing logistical issues, outdated artillery, and significant troop losses. While Ukrainian forces continue to hold their ground, Russia struggles with supply and morale, leading to dire circumstances for its soldiers.

WHY RUSSIA WON’T WIN

The post discusses Russia’s significant military challenges in Ukraine and its dwindling resources, contrasting historical perceptions of Russian power with current failures. It predicts Ukraine’s eventual victory, citing international support and Russia’s declining position.

WHO IS WINNING THE WAR?

The analysis outlines the complexities of the Ukraine-Russia war, highlighting Ukraine’s initial victories, subsequent setbacks, and evolving challenges. It emphasizes Russia’s economic decline and Ukraine’s resilient strategies, forecasting Russia’s eventual collapse despite territorial gains.

UK SUBMARINES & AUKUS: A NAVAL REVOLUTION?

The UK strategic defense review outlines ambitious plans for up to 12 AUKUS submarines, facing challenges like production capacity, financial constraints, and recruitment that could hinder timely implementation amid increasing global threats and the need for naval modernization.

TRANSFORMER:UKRAINE CHANGES WARFARE AGAIN

Ukraine’s innovative drone operations have significantly impacted modern warfare, attacking Russian strategic aviation with unprecedented effectiveness. Such bold tactics could inspire similar actions globally, urging nations to reconsider their defense strategies against unexpected threats.

Deterrence Evolving: Nuclear, CYBER & AI

The evolving nature of deterrence in cyber warfare and nuclear capabilities is creating complexities previously unimagined. With AI integration, nations face challenges in maintaining stability, as the potential for catastrophic conflict increases and human control diminishes.

THE EQUALIZATION OF POWER

The past 25 years revealed numerous US military blunders, with implications seen in Ukraine and the Houthis. Advances in technology have shifted power dynamics, demonstrating vulnerabilities in traditional military strengths and challenging the status quo of great power superiority.

THE INDO-PAKISTAN CONFLICT; STRIKES, LOSSES & CAUSES

A sharp conflict whose details may surprise, Pakistan displaying cutting edge Chinese weaponry, cyber attacks and leaving India slightly red faced. Behind it a dangerous water war looms.

GLOBAL OVERVIEW: CHANGE & CONFLICT

The 80th anniversary of WW2’s end highlights America’s decline and Russia’s facade of strength amidst internal turmoil. Global conflicts persist, with Europe possibly rising to fill the power vacuum left by the faltering U.S.

AUKUS: THE NEW REALITY MAKES IT A HARDER SELL

The U.S. Navy’s shipbuilding struggles are endangering the AUKUS submarine program, raising concerns for Australia about reliance on U.S. systems. Australia faces challenges in workforce training and costs escalations, questioning the partnership’s viability and future direction.

DISENGAGING AMERICA: NATO

The Western world is split on disengaging from the US, with Japan and South Korea relying on American protection against China, while Europe+ faces challenges with Russia. The argument emphasizes Europe’s need for self-reliance and a restructured NATO without US control.

NOT LONG NOW: OIL IS RUSSIA’S ACHILLES HEEL

Achilles, a legendary Greek warrior, symbolizes invulnerability with his ‘Achilles heel.’ Russia, relying heavily on oil, faces economic disaster due to falling prices, military stalemates, and a struggle for survival amid systemic corruption and leadership failure.

US DISENGAGING FROM NATO SPARKS AMERICAN ANGST

General Cavolli’s Senate testimony highlighted concerns over U.S. military withdrawal from Europe, nuclear command issues, and shifting defense strategies. The perceived diminishing U.S. role may lead Europeans to seek self-reliance in defense procurement, significantly impacting U.S. influence.

DRONE WAR: WHO HAS THE UPPER HAND?

The war in Ukraine showcases Ukraine’s tactical drone superiority, surpassing Russia’s capabilities. Innovations in drone technology and mass production have allowed Ukraine to target deep within Russia, while Russia struggles tactically, its strategic attacks are deadly.

RUSSIA: STRATEGIC INFLECTION POINT

Russia faces a dilemma between seeking a ceasefire to stabilize and pushing for immediate victory against Ukraine, believing time is limited. Meanwhile, Ukraine strengthens its military, while the U.S. struggles with ineffective diplomacy, complicating prospects for peace.

UKRAINE CAN WIN

Talks in Saudi Arabia aim to resolve the ongoing war, but both Russia and Ukraine remain deadlocked. Ukraine’s prolonged strategies focus on gaining time and resource depletion, fully supported by Europe+ like never before. Ignoring them is a huge strategic error.

THE GREAT BETRAYAL: IT’S ALL ABOUT CHINA

Kissinger knew what was doing in 1971, peeling a disgruntled China from Soviet power was relatively simple. Trump hasn’t a clue what he’s doing trying to peel Russia from China in todays radically shifted geopolitical world.

UKRAINE’S SPY SATELLITE DEPENDENCY IS OURS TOO

The current geopolitical climate, particularly in space, is rapidly evolving. The U.S. satellite capabilities are limited and overshadowed by emerging commercial options, urging Europe to enhance its own satellite resources for better intelligence sharing and security.

EUROPE ISN’T WASTING TIME

European nations, led by Germany and Poland, are significantly increasing defense spending in response to geopolitical pressures. A notable shift is occurring as Europe mobilizes military aid for Ukraine, signaling a newfound commitment to defense.

NUKES ARE THE ANSWER – MANY SEE NO CHOICE

The return of Cold War tensions is disappointing, with nations like Poland considering nuclear arms due to distrust in American support. As global dynamics shift, nuclear proliferation may increase, posing serious implications for future security.

FALL: AMERICA’S EMPIRE IN DECLINE

Empires rise and fall primarily through military power and trade dominance. The text explores the decline of empires, emphasizing the current fragility of American influence stemming from recent policies and diminished alliances.

THE END OF THE KURSK ADVENTURE

The Kursk Campaign, initially seen as a morale boost for Ukraine, has led to significant territorial gains but overconfidence resulted in strategic errors. Russian forces have regained momentum, suggesting an impending Ukrainian withdrawal amid talk of a ceasefire.

IS AUKUS STILL VIABLE?

The situation in Ukraine raises questions about American reliability in military alliances. Australia may reconsider their dependence on the US amidst procurement issues and changing geopolitical dynamics, debating alternatives for submarine programs and technological collaborations.

EUROPE+: THE NEW AGE OF EUROPEAN DEFENCE TAKES SHAPE

In a week of significant political turmoil, Ukraine’s ally responses crystallized amid concerns over America’s NATO involvement. Calls for a more independent European defense framework emerged, highlighting the need for institutional reforms and enhanced military capabilities.

THE NOT SO ROCKY ROAD AHEAD FOR UKRAINE

The U.S. aims for peace with Russia, compromising Ukraine’s military support. Ukraine, while producing more arms domestically, struggles without American intelligence. European backing remains strong, but the future is uncertain amidst ongoing pressures and demands.

EUROPE STANDS UP: DEFENCE IS ITS PRIORITY

European leaders are collaborating on defense strategies, focusing on Ukraine, as the UK plans to enhance military capabilities. The EU’s €800 billion plan seeks to bolster NATO and support Ukraine, despite challenges from the US.

WELCOME TO THE NEW WORLD ORDER

The United Nations ideals demolished as American leadership shifted towards authoritarianism, undermining global democratic efforts. European nations seek independence from the U.S. while emphasizing Ukraine’s resilience against Russia despite internal challenges.

THE NUCLEAR PROBLEM: EUROPE, UKRAINE & US WITHDRAWAL

The potential U.S. military withdrawal from Europe raises concerns about nuclear deterrence, necessitating European collaboration. France and the UK may need to integrate their nuclear capabilities, while Ukraine contemplates developing its own deterrent amid ongoing threats.

RUSSIANS HIT BY UKRAINIANS AT POKROVSK

In recent special operations, Ukrainian forces regained key positions near Pokrovsk, addressing issues in troop leadership and morale. While facing effective Russian attacks, they consider strategies to improve defense against glide bombs and sustain control.

A UNITED EUROPEAN MILITARY AT LAST?

The long-standing idea of a European unified military command encounters challenges due to NATO’s established dominance. Historical tensions around national sovereignty impede progress, while current geopolitical dynamics emphasize the need for Europe to strengthen its defense capabilities independently.

UKRAINE: A BETTER POSITION THAN RUSSIA

The Munich aftermath: Ukraine’s strong position contrasts with Russia’s struggles. Europe and Ukraine’s newfound unity could reshape negotiations, as Ukraine asserts its independence and military strength against Russian aggression. Europe finds its voice at last.

INDIA: RISING GREAT POWER, CHINESE RIVAL

India’s defense budget increased by 9.5% to $78.8 billion, but only $22 billion is available for new equipment due to high personnel costs. The military faces challenges from China and Pakistan amid evolving geopolitical dynamics.

47 UPENDS DECADES OF NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

The “Iron Dome for America” Executive Order mandates a comprehensive missile defense system, reflecting significant defense ambitions. This escalation intensifies the nuclear arms race, motivating countries like Russia and China to expand their arsenals, heightening global tensions.

RUSSIAN BANKING COLLAPSE INEVITABLE

Russia’s war funding shows deep economic troubles, with state finances rapidly crumbling under rising costs and sanctions. Putin faces imminent banking collapse while facing dwindling resources. Continuous conflict risks worsening economic despair amidst international opposition.

UKRAINE’S OIL WAR ON RUSSIA

Ukraine’s recent drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have significantly disrupted Russia’s oil processing capacity, compromising military logistics, and raising domestic unrest. Simultaneously, sanctions exacerbate Russia’s economic vulnerability and highlight defense shortcomings amidst winter challenges.

PUTIN PLAYS HIS OPENING GAMBIT FOR PEACE TALKS

Putin’s statements on peace talks reflect strategic posturing amidst ongoing conflict. While expressing willingness to negotiate, he imposes unrealistic conditions, undermining Ukraine and questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy, complicating any potential discussions on resolution.

CHINA: TAIWAN INVASION IS INEVITABLE

The Chinese military is rapidly advancing towards an invasion capability of Taiwan, driven by economic turmoil, with military preparation expected to peak by 2027. Taiwan’s defenses face substantial challenges amid growing geopolitical tensions.

OBSESSION IS DESTROYING IRAN

The Iranian political system is characterized by a theocratic republic under the Supreme Leader, resulting in significant corruption and inefficiency. Despite vast gas reserves, the nation faces energy crises due to poor governance and external conflicts it has largely created itself.

ROCKY ROAD TO A ‘PEACE DEAL’

The US Administration has tasked Ambassador Keith Kellog with negotiating peace in Ukraine within 100 days. While Russia believes it can achieve breakthroughs by autumn, significant economic challenges may affect Putin’s decisions amidst mounting pressure and potential sanctions from the US.

SIXTH GEN FIGHTERS: THE RACE IS ON

Various nations, including the US, China, and European countries, are racing to develop a Sixth Generation fighter aircraft, focusing on advanced capabilities and AI integration, despite escalating costs and strategic challenges in maintaining technological superiority.

AUKUS UPDATE JANUARY 2025

AUKUS appears to progress as intended for Australia, yet challenges exist, particularly regarding US submarine production delays, jeopardizing delivery timelines. Successful containment of China relies on resolving these industrial issues to meet military needs effectively.

WAR & PEACE: WHY A DIPLOMATIC END IS UNLIKELY

The ongoing war in Ukraine signifies a complicated reality where peace is unlikely without definitive outcomes. Options include Russia’s complete victory, Ukraine’s outright success, or a change in Putin’s regime, with trust issues remaining central.

ECONOMIC REVELATIONS: RUSSIA IS WORSE OFF THAN WE THINK

A recent analysis highlights severe issues in the Russian financial system due to the Kremlin’s forced loans to the armaments industry, risking a major economic crisis exacerbated by sanctions and unsustainable borrowing, potentially leading to widespread bankruptcy.

UKRAINIAN MOBILIZATION

The author expresses frustration with Ukraine’s youth’s lack of engagement in defense efforts, emphasizing ineffective mobilization policies and poor messaging, while urging the importance of their participation in the war for the nation’s future.

THE AIR WAR: CAN UKRAINE CHANGE ANYTHING?

This article analyzes the current status and effectiveness of Ukraine’s air force, detailing various aircraft in service, their limitations, and the challenges faced in achieving air superiority against Russian forces amidst ongoing conflict.

RUSSIA DEVELOPING STRATEGIC DRONE SWARMS

In December 2024, Ukraine reported Russia enhancing its Geran drones with basic AI for better target recognition and navigation, indicating a shift towards mass drone swarms. This evolution raises concerns over future autonomous capabilities and potential escalation in drone warfare.

UKRAINIAN DETERRENCE

The content discusses various levels of deterrence in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, highlighting Ukraine’s effective strategies, such as naval operations and attacks on Crimea, which have significantly altered Russia’s military posture and capabilities.

NATO’s TACTICAL NUCLEAR UPGRADE

On December 18, 2024, the U.S. completed a $9 billion nuclear warhead upgrade, modernizing the B-61-12. Despite various safeguards, NATO’s consensus requirement for use complicates effective deterrence against Russian threats in crisis situations.

THE RUSSIAN PLAYBOOK – HOW TO DESTABILIZE YOUR NEIGHBORS

Historically, Russia has employed subterfuge and manipulation to maintain control over former territories. With current tactics targeting Transnistria, it seeks to destabilize neighboring countries while fostering resentment against Ukraine and the West, showcasing ongoing imperial ambitions.

KURSK COUNTER OFFENSIVE!

Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in Kursk Oblast, utilizing coordinated ground tactics and advanced drone operations, while facing Russian counteroffensives. This dynamic situation suggests potential strategic significance for both sides, with implications for future military engagement.

VICTORY? I THINK NOT

The ongoing war in Ukraine has seen significant Russian losses and failed strategies despite Putin’s claims of progress. The situation reflects increasing desperation and state control in Russia, with dire economic consequences even as Putin celebrates.

RUSSIA MAKES THINGS WORSE

Russia has shifted from mobilization to financial inducements for military recruitment, offering high initial contracts but slashing compensation for injuries and deaths, creating economic distortion and societal divisions amid rising troop casualties, revealing systemic weaknesses.

RUSSIAN OIL DISASTER

The sinking of outdated Russian tankers in the Black Sea highlights dangerous maritime practices amid the war in Ukraine, exposing environmental and economic risks while illustrating Russia’s deep reliance on an aging fleet for oil transport.

UKRAINE’S MID-LONG RANGE STRATEGY

Ukraine’s missile and drone strategy has rapidly evolved in response to the war, developing advanced capabilities and targeting key Russian assets, fundamentally altering future warfare concepts, and providing lessons for Western militaries on agility and innovation in arms development.

FRONTLINES CONTINUE TO RETREAT UNDER PRESSURE

The current military situation in Ukraine remains tense, with significant Russian advances near Pokrovsk amidst heavy casualties. External geopolitical dynamics, especially concerning American aid and domestic pressure on Putin, further complicate the unfolding conflict.

WAR IN SPACE: NOW NEXT LEVEL

The article discusses the critical role of satellites in modern warfare, focusing on China’s advances in space capabilities and its potential threats to US and allied systems, particularly through intelligence gathering and offensive strategies.

IRANIAN MILITARY IN TURMOIL OVER SYRIA LOSS

The fall of Syria has exposed deep divisions within Iran’s military leadership, causing chaos and blame. Supreme Leader Khomeini is alarmed by the regime’s vulnerability, with internal dissent rising and a potential shift in U.S. sanctions looming.

RUSSIA’S STRATEGIC DISASTER IN SYRIA

The analysis highlights Russia’s significant strategic loss in Syria, particularly regarding its military bases in Tartus and Latakia, impairing its influence in the Middle East and Africa, largely due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

LESSONS FOR N.KOREA COME HARD IN UKRAINE

North Korean troops, sold to Russia, are being integrated into Russian units, causing significant communication and operational challenges. The situation reflects Russia’s desperate manpower shortages, impacting their military effectiveness amidst Ukraine’s strategic advancements.

WAR IN THE PACIFIC? PART 3

In this last segment I want to look at three issues that will determine if China can even mount an invasion of Taiwan. China is economically in the worst position it’s been in since 1980. The property market, at one point driving 25% of its GDP has fallen into collapse. Giant property companies like Evergrand […]

WAR IN THE PACIFIC? PART 2

The relationship between the U.S. and China reflects trade imbalances, tariffs, and strategic conflicts, with China leveraging its economic power globally while expanding its military capabilities and rare earth element control, posing significant challenges for American competitiveness and security.

WAR IN THE PACIFIC? Part 1

The US-China relationship is marked by economic interdependence and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly over Taiwan and the South China Sea. With the US enhancing military presence and weapons systems in the region, the situation remains precarious.

AUKUS UPS ITS GAME

The AUKUS framework has progressed beyond the submarine deal to include the HyFliTE Project.

THE AIR OF DESPERATION HANGS OVER RUSSIA

This weekend gone has been one of increasing desperation for Russia. The Kursk salient has been a catastrophic graveyard of Russian ambitions. Overwhelmed by tough defences, lack of equipment, lack of manpower, terrible planning and bad commanders, all under huge pressure from Putin personally. The mud has finally arrived and the weather is worse along […]

STRATEGIC SHIFT: FROM THE V2 TO THE ORESHNIK IRBM

The development of ballistic missiles, from Nazi Germany’s V2 to modern nuclear strategies, reflects a complex arms race involving technological advancements, military doctrines, and international treaties, ultimately leading to a precarious balance of power and ongoing tensions between global powers.

UKRAINIAN & RUSSIAN TACTICS

Both sides use defined tactics to defend and attack. Are they locked in repeat?

UKRAINE COUNTER ATTACKS AS RUSSIAN OFFENSIVES SLOW

The weather has worsened. Russian casualty figures have dropped to their lowest in weeks. Daylight hours are approaching minimum. The cold is having its effect especially on the notoriously poorly equipped Russians. Over the past couple of days the Ukrainians have pulled off a brilliant counter attack, slicing off the Russian pincer move in the […]

ATACMS

A quick guide to ATACMS