WHERE NEXT? NATO & AMERICA

The Oslo Security Conference highlights European discontent over the US withdrawal from the WHO and foreign policy shifts. Discussions involve NATO’s future without the US, support for Ukraine, and the need for European collaboration amidst growing tensions with Russia.

THE ROAD TO HELL & VICTORY HOW THE WAR CHANGED 2022-26

The content chronicles the evolution of the Ukraine-Russia war from February 2022 to early 2026. It emphasizes Ukraine’s resilience, military innovation, and the dire consequences of Russian mismanagement, ultimately forecasting Russia’s impending defeat due to a diminishing arsenal and leadership detachment.

2026 RUSSIA’S WORST YEAR?

The Analyst looks at the way Russian influence and power are crumbling as it becomes clear it has no military way to win and its economy fails it.

THIS TELLS RUSSIA: YOU SHALL NOT PASS!

This is no ordinary defence line. Its a statement of intent and designed to make Russia think, and once they have ignored their own obvious conclusions it will rip them to shreds- if they ever get there.

2025: THE YEAR THE WAR RADICALLY CHANGED

The war has changed dramatically, from the main players, to the politics, to the battlefield. But perhaps more than ever on the strategic economic front where Russia is bleeding slowly to death.

END OF AN ERA: US NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY PRO RUSSIA, ANTI EUROPE

The U.S. National Security Strategy document has sparked outrage among some GOP senators for neglecting Russia as a threat and vilifying democratic Europe. The policy signals a stark shift to isolationism and a radical undermining of NATO.

SUPPORTING UKRAINE WITHOUT AMERICA

The article discusses Europe’s challenges in supporting Ukraine if U.S. aid ceases, emphasizing the need for cooperation in defense capabilities, intelligence sharing, and military supplies, while addressing procurement issues and evolving warfare demands for long-term security.

FP-5 FLAMINGO UPDATE

#UkrainianView
FP-5 Flamingo is now just a month from IOC, and Ukraine starts to exceed Russian capabilities, it’s a watershed moment in the war as a whole. Meanwhile Russian system fail as budgets are slashed.

GOLD: THE LAST GAMBLE OF A DESPERATE RUSSIA

Selling off the gold reserves is a sign of severe economic distress, and there’s no way to normalize such a move. Russian & Putin are nearing end game and the oligarchs know it.

WHY? PEACE PLANS, LEAKS & PUTIN’S GAME

Vladimir Putin is a manipulator, using tactics of distraction and misdirection to achieve his goals. The recent ‘peace deal’ talks and complexities surrounding U.S. sanctions against Russia illustrate a calculated effort to maintain control and avoid serious repercussions, primarily influenced by Donald Trump’s actions.

RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR LUNACY

The Russians measure their worth by nuclear weapons. They have done for nearly 80 years. It merely masks their innate inadequacies. Yet its the most dangerous and potentially worrying aspect of their approach to the world around them.

THE CRIMEA GAMBIT: UKRAINE’S STRATEGY FOR ITS RETURN

Ukraine has carried out a successful war against the Russians across Crimea, effectively neutralizing it as an operating military resource and attritting countless russian weapons and EW/radar systems at low cost. Its eventual return is the goal.

SOMETHING IS CHANGING AND RUSSIA IS LOSING

The situation in Russia is changing and I believe the war is now lost. They must now be convinced they’ve been defeated, and bring it to an end.

NATO: STANDING UP TO PUTIN

Europe must decide to shoot down Russian aircraft that blatantly enter NATO airspace and make it clear to Russia we intend to do so. This is why…

POWER & CORRUPTION IN THE RUSSIAN ARMY: THE FSB IS KING

Corruption is endemic in Russia’s military. The FSB uses it to further Putin’s own ends and ensure his survival.

KINETIC SANCTIONS & ECONOMIC STRIFE

Russian’s are feeling the impact of Ukraine’s strategic strikes, the oil industry is in a mess and Russia increasingly desperate to stop the situation getting out of control.

RUSSIA IS DYING & THERE’S NO GOING BACK

The post discusses the doom cycle of Russia’s population collapse, the ethnic disparities and Russia’s self identity, now in danger. Putin’s regime has created a dire predicament there’s no coming back from.

CRISIS? WHAT CRISIS? PUTIN DOUBLES DOWN

The Russian government is attempting to conceal a looming financial crisis through restrictive laws on economic data. Defaults on loans are surging, and while trying to manage perceptions, the economic situation worsens, revealing deep inequities and a collapsing economy.

UKRAINE WILL WIN

The analysis highlights Trump’s inadequate support for Ukraine, contrasting it with the critical impacts of US military aid. Despite past defeats, Ukraine is now better equipped and poised for victory, thanks to increased assistance and innovative strategies.

TRUMP UNDER PRESSURE DOES THE MINIMUM

Tump blew hard but did next to nothing to help Ukraine, leaving Russia almost a four month window to exploit. Moscow rejoiced at the weak response over sanctions, but the weapons on the way to Ukraine can only hurt Russia even more.

PUTIN: TRAPPED WITH NOWHERE TO GO

Putin has placed himself at the centre of a web of lies and unreality, cut off from ‘real’ life and obsessed with his legacy and winning the war he started. He rejected peace and now is trapped in doom cycle of his own making.

IMPACT OF THE NORTHWOOD DECLARATION on European Security

The Northwood Declaration, signed by Macron and Starmer, establishes a significant Anglo-French nuclear partnership, affirming joint defense commitments in response to threats, while emphasizing independent capabilities. This strengthens Europe’s security amid changing global alliances and addresses Russian aggression.

PUTIN’S REGIME STARTS TO CRACK

Putin’s regime is facing multiple issues simultaneously, a long expected series of events that show the regime is making mistakes and Putin is not as strong as western observers think he is.

russia’s federation is a lie

The Russian Federation emerged from the Soviet era, marked by territorial conquests and oppressive policies, notably during Stalin’s rule. It continues to exert control over former territories, resisting the notion of independence among its constituent nations.

PUTIN’S WEAKEST MOMENT TELLS US THE END IS COMING

Putin’s recent address highlights his concerns about Russia’s deteriorating war, economic situation, and public discontent. His proposed defense spending cuts appear as empty promises, reflecting his fear of losing support amid growing hardships for citizens.

IRAN: WHO WON? LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES

Who won the Iran-Israel conflict? What lessons have been learned and are they the right ones? The world enters a dangerous phase in human existence, stress at every point could lead to dangerous conflict almost anywhere.

WHY RUSSIA WON’T WIN

The post discusses Russia’s significant military challenges in Ukraine and its dwindling resources, contrasting historical perceptions of Russian power with current failures. It predicts Ukraine’s eventual victory, citing international support and Russia’s declining position.

WHO IS WINNING THE WAR?

The analysis outlines the complexities of the Ukraine-Russia war, highlighting Ukraine’s initial victories, subsequent setbacks, and evolving challenges. It emphasizes Russia’s economic decline and Ukraine’s resilient strategies, forecasting Russia’s eventual collapse despite territorial gains.

TRANSFORMER:UKRAINE CHANGES WARFARE AGAIN

Ukraine’s innovative drone operations have significantly impacted modern warfare, attacking Russian strategic aviation with unprecedented effectiveness. Such bold tactics could inspire similar actions globally, urging nations to reconsider their defense strategies against unexpected threats.

PUTIN ROLLS THE DICE

The events of May 11-19, 2025, signify a critical juncture in the Russo-Ukrainian War, highlighting Putin’s miscalculations, failed negotiations, and Ukraine’s strengthened military preparedness for upcoming confrontations, signaling a pivotal shift in the conflict.

THE EQUALIZATION OF POWER

The past 25 years revealed numerous US military blunders, with implications seen in Ukraine and the Houthis. Advances in technology have shifted power dynamics, demonstrating vulnerabilities in traditional military strengths and challenging the status quo of great power superiority.

GLOBAL OVERVIEW: CHANGE & CONFLICT

The 80th anniversary of WW2’s end highlights America’s decline and Russia’s facade of strength amidst internal turmoil. Global conflicts persist, with Europe possibly rising to fill the power vacuum left by the faltering U.S.

WHAT NEXT FOR UKRAINE?

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues. Russian drone & missile attacks targeting civilians increase. Ukraine is improving its defenses, producing equipment domestically, and maintaining resilience, while navigating complex international dynamics, including U.S. politics and support.

RUSSIA’S NEXT WAR?

Russia is militarizing its border with NATO, preparing for potential conflicts while maintaining ambitions for expansion. Bolstered by an aggressive economy, it seeks test case wars, notably in the Baltic, to gauge NATO’s response and exploit perceived weaknesses.

NOT LONG NOW: OIL IS RUSSIA’S ACHILLES HEEL

Achilles, a legendary Greek warrior, symbolizes invulnerability with his ‘Achilles heel.’ Russia, relying heavily on oil, faces economic disaster due to falling prices, military stalemates, and a struggle for survival amid systemic corruption and leadership failure.

RUSSIA: STRATEGIC INFLECTION POINT

Russia faces a dilemma between seeking a ceasefire to stabilize and pushing for immediate victory against Ukraine, believing time is limited. Meanwhile, Ukraine strengthens its military, while the U.S. struggles with ineffective diplomacy, complicating prospects for peace.

UKRAINE CAN WIN

Talks in Saudi Arabia aim to resolve the ongoing war, but both Russia and Ukraine remain deadlocked. Ukraine’s prolonged strategies focus on gaining time and resource depletion, fully supported by Europe+ like never before. Ignoring them is a huge strategic error.

THE GREAT BETRAYAL: IT’S ALL ABOUT CHINA

Kissinger knew what was doing in 1971, peeling a disgruntled China from Soviet power was relatively simple. Trump hasn’t a clue what he’s doing trying to peel Russia from China in todays radically shifted geopolitical world.

TOTAL FAILURE: THE ART OF NO DEAL

Trump’s failure to negotiate effectively with Putin led to minimal gains for Ukraine and significant concessions to Russia. Despite this, Ukraine’s resilience and Europe’s support signal a potential shift, indicating a stronger future for Ukraine.

EUROPE ISN’T WASTING TIME

European nations, led by Germany and Poland, are significantly increasing defense spending in response to geopolitical pressures. A notable shift is occurring as Europe mobilizes military aid for Ukraine, signaling a newfound commitment to defense.

PUTIN CARRIES ON REGARDLESS

Putin miscalculated the fallout from his Ukraine invasion, leading to a united Europe supporting Ukraine. Despite bluster and supply issues, Russia risks economic collapse while clinging to a prolonged conflict amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics.

NUKES ARE THE ANSWER – MANY SEE NO CHOICE

The return of Cold War tensions is disappointing, with nations like Poland considering nuclear arms due to distrust in American support. As global dynamics shift, nuclear proliferation may increase, posing serious implications for future security.

EUROPE+: THE NEW AGE OF EUROPEAN DEFENCE TAKES SHAPE

In a week of significant political turmoil, Ukraine’s ally responses crystallized amid concerns over America’s NATO involvement. Calls for a more independent European defense framework emerged, highlighting the need for institutional reforms and enhanced military capabilities.

THE NOT SO ROCKY ROAD AHEAD FOR UKRAINE

The U.S. aims for peace with Russia, compromising Ukraine’s military support. Ukraine, while producing more arms domestically, struggles without American intelligence. European backing remains strong, but the future is uncertain amidst ongoing pressures and demands.

WELCOME TO THE NEW WORLD ORDER

The United Nations ideals demolished as American leadership shifted towards authoritarianism, undermining global democratic efforts. European nations seek independence from the U.S. while emphasizing Ukraine’s resilience against Russia despite internal challenges.

THE WORLD HAS CHANGED FOREVER

The article argues that the global order has drastically shifted, particularly after the U.S. presidency’s failure to maintain alliances and uphold democracy. The author emphasizes the need for resilience and cooperation among allies in facing new geopolitical challenges.

UKRAINE: A BETTER POSITION THAN RUSSIA

The Munich aftermath: Ukraine’s strong position contrasts with Russia’s struggles. Europe and Ukraine’s newfound unity could reshape negotiations, as Ukraine asserts its independence and military strength against Russian aggression. Europe finds its voice at last.

RUSSIAN BANKING COLLAPSE INEVITABLE

Russia’s war funding shows deep economic troubles, with state finances rapidly crumbling under rising costs and sanctions. Putin faces imminent banking collapse while facing dwindling resources. Continuous conflict risks worsening economic despair amidst international opposition.

UKRAINE’S OIL WAR ON RUSSIA

Ukraine’s recent drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have significantly disrupted Russia’s oil processing capacity, compromising military logistics, and raising domestic unrest. Simultaneously, sanctions exacerbate Russia’s economic vulnerability and highlight defense shortcomings amidst winter challenges.

PUTIN PLAYS HIS OPENING GAMBIT FOR PEACE TALKS

Putin’s statements on peace talks reflect strategic posturing amidst ongoing conflict. While expressing willingness to negotiate, he imposes unrealistic conditions, undermining Ukraine and questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy, complicating any potential discussions on resolution.

CHINA: TAIWAN INVASION IS INEVITABLE

The Chinese military is rapidly advancing towards an invasion capability of Taiwan, driven by economic turmoil, with military preparation expected to peak by 2027. Taiwan’s defenses face substantial challenges amid growing geopolitical tensions.

ROCKY ROAD TO A ‘PEACE DEAL’

The US Administration has tasked Ambassador Keith Kellog with negotiating peace in Ukraine within 100 days. While Russia believes it can achieve breakthroughs by autumn, significant economic challenges may affect Putin’s decisions amidst mounting pressure and potential sanctions from the US.

WAR & PEACE: WHY A DIPLOMATIC END IS UNLIKELY

The ongoing war in Ukraine signifies a complicated reality where peace is unlikely without definitive outcomes. Options include Russia’s complete victory, Ukraine’s outright success, or a change in Putin’s regime, with trust issues remaining central.

ECONOMIC REVELATIONS: RUSSIA IS WORSE OFF THAN WE THINK

A recent analysis highlights severe issues in the Russian financial system due to the Kremlin’s forced loans to the armaments industry, risking a major economic crisis exacerbated by sanctions and unsustainable borrowing, potentially leading to widespread bankruptcy.

RUSSIA DEVELOPING STRATEGIC DRONE SWARMS

In December 2024, Ukraine reported Russia enhancing its Geran drones with basic AI for better target recognition and navigation, indicating a shift towards mass drone swarms. This evolution raises concerns over future autonomous capabilities and potential escalation in drone warfare.

UKRAINIAN DETERRENCE

The content discusses various levels of deterrence in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, highlighting Ukraine’s effective strategies, such as naval operations and attacks on Crimea, which have significantly altered Russia’s military posture and capabilities.

NATO’s TACTICAL NUCLEAR UPGRADE

On December 18, 2024, the U.S. completed a $9 billion nuclear warhead upgrade, modernizing the B-61-12. Despite various safeguards, NATO’s consensus requirement for use complicates effective deterrence against Russian threats in crisis situations.

THE RUSSIAN PLAYBOOK – HOW TO DESTABILIZE YOUR NEIGHBORS

Historically, Russia has employed subterfuge and manipulation to maintain control over former territories. With current tactics targeting Transnistria, it seeks to destabilize neighboring countries while fostering resentment against Ukraine and the West, showcasing ongoing imperial ambitions.

KURSK COUNTER OFFENSIVE!

Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in Kursk Oblast, utilizing coordinated ground tactics and advanced drone operations, while facing Russian counteroffensives. This dynamic situation suggests potential strategic significance for both sides, with implications for future military engagement.

VICTORY? I THINK NOT

The ongoing war in Ukraine has seen significant Russian losses and failed strategies despite Putin’s claims of progress. The situation reflects increasing desperation and state control in Russia, with dire economic consequences even as Putin celebrates.

ARMS, AUTARKY & AGGRESSION

This is a little different, my thoughts on the history of Russia somewhat concatenated and shortened, as to why I think doom awaits Putin and Russia. Why what it does is nothing new and will end the same way it always has.

PUTIN UNDER PRESSURE

Putin’ aimed to project stability amidst economic turmoil, revealing inflation concerns and interest rates maintained at 21%. War has exacerbated issues, affecting transport and manufacturing. Public pressure mounts as realities of conflict worsen.

RUSSIAN OIL DISASTER

The sinking of outdated Russian tankers in the Black Sea highlights dangerous maritime practices amid the war in Ukraine, exposing environmental and economic risks while illustrating Russia’s deep reliance on an aging fleet for oil transport.

NK TROOPS IN RUSSIA: A NEW THREAT TO EUROPE?

North Korean soldiers are observed fighting in Russia, displaying poor training and motivation. Questions arise about Western responses to this development, sanctions on NK, and potential future complications if troops enter Ukraine.

PUTIN’S RUSSIA WILL FALL

The article discusses the mounting internal and external pressures on the Russian regime, highlighting economic decline, military shortcomings, and geopolitical isolation. It concludes that awareness of these issues may lead to significant changes in Russia’s future.

IRANIAN MILITARY IN TURMOIL OVER SYRIA LOSS

The fall of Syria has exposed deep divisions within Iran’s military leadership, causing chaos and blame. Supreme Leader Khomeini is alarmed by the regime’s vulnerability, with internal dissent rising and a potential shift in U.S. sanctions looming.

A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE WAR ON THE GROUND

The analysis highlights the stark realities of the ongoing war, emphasizing Russia’s significant losses and challenges in manpower and economy, while Ukraine strategically defends its territory, indicating a potential shift in the war’s outcome.

RUSSIA’S STRATEGIC DISASTER IN SYRIA

The analysis highlights Russia’s significant strategic loss in Syria, particularly regarding its military bases in Tartus and Latakia, impairing its influence in the Middle East and Africa, largely due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

MAKING SANCTIONS WORSE FOR RUSSIA

The next US administration’s strategies against Russia involve military aid and tightening sanctions to pressure Moscow. Efforts may focus on reducing Western corporations’ presence in Russia, monitoring oil smuggling, and restricting dual-use electronics to hinder military capabilities.

RUSSIA: RELAPSE, REBUILD & REVENGE. WILL THE CYCLE REPEAT?

The long-term implications of Russia’s military failures and its inability to rebuild effectively post-war. It predicts a cycle of decline for Russia, emphasizing the importance of Ukraine’s military innovation and support from the West to prevent future aggression.

THE AIR OF DESPERATION HANGS OVER RUSSIA

This weekend gone has been one of increasing desperation for Russia. The Kursk salient has been a catastrophic graveyard of Russian ambitions. Overwhelmed by tough defences, lack of equipment, lack of manpower, terrible planning and bad commanders, all under huge pressure from Putin personally. The mud has finally arrived and the weather is worse along […]

PUTIN V. TRUMP: BATTLE FOR UKRAINE’S LEGACY

As Trump takes office, the shifting geopolitical landscape centers on the war in Ukraine. Putin’s ambitions and internal struggles heighten tensions, complicating potential negotiations. Acknowledgment of Ukraine’s sovereignty is critical and proactive measures by the West remain vital for stability

UKRAINIAN & RUSSIAN TACTICS

Both sides use defined tactics to defend and attack. Are they locked in repeat?

RUSSIANS FACE TOUGH COUNTERATTACKS AS UKRAINIANS FIGHT BACK

The situation on the frontlines overall, is one of incremental but small gains for Russia. Their losses have been monumental – exceeding 80,000 in two months, far above their ability to replace them. The situation in Kursk continues to deteriorate as Russians eventually push their way from the north and west towards Malaya Locknya. The […]

UKRAINE COUNTER ATTACKS AS RUSSIAN OFFENSIVES SLOW

The weather has worsened. Russian casualty figures have dropped to their lowest in weeks. Daylight hours are approaching minimum. The cold is having its effect especially on the notoriously poorly equipped Russians. Over the past couple of days the Ukrainians have pulled off a brilliant counter attack, slicing off the Russian pincer move in the […]

RED LINE CROSSED, RUSSIA CHANGES ITS NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

Putin changes nuclear doctrine but nuclear weapons stay in their bunkers