History has a habit of being ignored even as it happens. We do not always think of ourselves as being involved or even present when turning points occur. Most don’t even know they have happened let alone appreciate when they are part of one at the very time it took place.
I have seen several in my lifetime. America defeated in Vietnam and the victory of communism. What Vietnam did to America along with what Nixon did to America were turning points in that nations history. The moral superiority of America was destroyed by Nixon’s crookery and led to where we are now in American politics. He broke the system and subsequent presidents failed to fully contain it, leading to the present diabolical situation where Trump trashes America and its democratic process day by day.
The fall of the Soviet Union and the end of communism was one nobody saw coming. It was relatively calm, almost a damp squib of an event that we all watched as if it were an out of body experience. It was so unexpected and so fast entire lifetimes dedicated to the defence of the West from Soviet aggression seemed almost pointless. ‘We’ won the Cold War and the hollowness of that victory I think was made up for by the first invasion of Iraq. It was almost as though we had to prove that what we said we could do, we could actually do, and so we did.
The greatest turning point we’ve witnessed was 9-11. I said to everyone I knew that they should imagine the world as if it were going in a straight line, only to be forced to take a very sharp right turn out of the blue onto another timeline in a split second. It was Americas biggest mistake to expand the war based on lies. Bin Laden and his acolytes wanted to bring America down – and the awful reality is that they have managed just that. They set the direction of a disaster in Iraq that has still not recovered, that allowed Iran to meddle across the Middle East. America wasted a trillion dollars in Afghanistan when history has told occupiers a hundred times you cannot and will not win in that country. A botched exit – largely because of Trumps first term stupidity and poor advice to Biden, set America back again, its efforts of two decades turned to dust, its power diminished, its reputation shredded.
The Ukraine invasion. Timidity and powerlessness gave us a refusal to supply Ukraine with what it needed in any reasonable time frame. Dithering and vacillation in Washington, fear of old school Russia, held back what we should have done. Europe always had allowed America to lead and it just didn’t do a very good job. In the space of the last two years however, as American disengagement became a reality, Europe has finally taken up the challenge for itself and is learning to live on its own. Its relationship with Russia and the United States has changed forever.
The Iran War is another turning point. America was forced to go it almost alone. Israel had pushed for the war and proven itself to be a regional super power everyone is afraid of. Its ruthlessness despite the outrageous provocation in October 2023, went to a whole new level few can ever forgive in Gaza.
The GCC clearly wanted the conflict, they thought they could get regime change and so did America and Israel. Yet they mostly let the US and Israel do the work while they sat back and did a mediocre job of defending themselves. Now the reality for everyone has set in. America can blow up almost everything but Iran will still be there, it will still pose a threat long after America is gone from the region. All Trump has done is made things worse than they were before and he has militarily and geopolitically weakened America in the eyes of the world. It’s the most inept war in recent history, which is saying something after Russias invasion of Ukraine and how fast that went down the toilet.
Meanwhile the Chinese ran right around Trump during his visit, they poked him with several classic concealed jibes, the rose seeds for the paved over rose garden, broadcasting Trump weirdly bowing to Xi as though he was a supplicant, so much else. America had never been seen as so powerless in Chinese eyes. They more or less told Trump to keep out of Taiwan or it would be war and he just sucked it up.
Now it’s Russia’s turn, because the war Putin started over four years ago is rapidly starting to look very different. The Russians live with the arrogance of their race and its inherent belief in its own superiority. It still thinks it’s a great power. Yet the reality is without its oil it’s a geographically unviable economic nobody with a GDP smaller than South Korea, Spain, or Australia. Russias oil deposits are also vastly smaller than many realize – they just extract a lot of it much more quickly than others do. Thats part of its kleptocratic bent. Those alive now want to maximize what they can, nobody is interested in the future. They rely on nuclear weapons to ensure their ultimate survival but have too many and an obsession with them thats simply unhealthy. Nobody needs what Russia spends ludicrous amounts of money on, even as they are now clearly losing the conventional war they started.
Ukraine is a turning point and the architect of its own greatness. It never intended to become what its about to become, and that perhaps is the most extraordinary twist of events we’ll see unfold in the next ten years.
It is not hyperbole to say that in the drone war this weekend past, we have seen Ukraine deliver to Moscow what Moscow has psychologically been so afraid of. Drones dashing around Moscow hitting targets and leaving palls of black smoke everyone can see and experience. It shows everyone that things are getting worse for Russia. There’s no hiding it. If they were winning how can this be happening? It’s not just Moscow, it’s all over western Russia. In one night Ukrainian drones in the battlefield and rear areas hit 189 HQ’s, ammo sites, vehicles, concealed barracks and logistics hubs. IN ONE NIGHT. Thats happening day in day out, Russians are loosing around 1200 men per day, almost all to drones. Its relentless. Even when Ukrainian cities are hit by mass drones and ballistic missiles – it’s not changing the outcome of the war – a fact Russia doesn’t grasp.
Despite Russia introducing even stricter punishments for filming drone damage and publishing it, it hasn’t stopped people doing just that – even when the internet is mostly down and apps band. The noise level of complaints out of Russia from every side of society, milbloggers to angry housewives and drafted middle class men realizing they’re going to the front to die as Putin’s background mobilization continues, is now no longer a murmur, its a shout, a cry for some reality.
Ukraine is creating momentum, it is changing the war, it is making history. It has scaled up its industrial production of weapons and drones, of interceptors and jammers. Its first use of jet powered cruise missiles against Moscow on Sunday is another big milestone.
Across the frontlines while Russia throws huge resources to gain tiny amounts of land outside Pokrovsk, elsewhere Ukraine is turning the tide, slowly, but surely. There is hope in Ukraine that they will win the war – now more than ever before they believe they can win. They also don’t think it will end this year, and they think anything less than Russia being defeated on the battlefield will mean even with a peace, given time Russia will attack again.
We, you and I, are witnessing the greatest historical change in Europe and its relationships in over 100 years. What happens now and in the coming year or two will define our futures for decades to come. Ukraine and its people are the driving force of that change and they probably don’t even know it.
The Analyst
militaryanalyst.bsky.social
The Military Analyst 
Many thanks TA, this article has really hit home for me. The substantial drone attacks against Russia and in particular Moscow would usually result in a massive reprisal attack by Putin, but that isn’t happening. Of course it will arrive eventually, but no longer straight away. As ever, Russia will go for the civilian soft targets, and inevitably there will be casualties amongst Ukraine’s civilians. However Zelensky’s Ukraine are above such moral pettiness. They increasingly go for the refineries, factories, munition dumps and military targets. Eventually the Russian population will understand that it is not Ukraine that is their problem, but Putin and his supporters. Their problems are within and only by rising up against Putin and his thugs will they eventually find the peace and fulfilment that most have never experienced. In the meantime, we in Europe now finally find ourselves no longer reliant on the US for defence, no longer reliant on China for gadgetry and no longer reliant on Russia for cheaper energy. We in Europe (and I of course include UK and Ukraine) are finally beginning to grow up for the first time since WW2.
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“We in Europe (and I of course include UK and Ukraine) are finally beginning to grow up for the first time since WW2.”
We could also say that after WWII Europe was caught between The Soviet Union and The United States of America. We got free of the Soviet influence over our politics and governments in 1990, and now finally in 2026 we’re getting free of the American influence over our politics and governments.
Unfortunately, mis/mal/disinformation directed from especially Russia, China, and and the US are influencing us more than KGB, Stasi, CIA, etc could ever had hoped for back during the cold war, with the rise of “Social Media”.
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so very much on point again and indeed there is a change in the wind – recent battlefield numbers show that Russian artillery and vehicles have been taking a pounding whilst their drone numbers seem to be declining – are the orcs becoming weaker, are the kinetic sanctions creating the much hoped for cracks in the war machine of orcland? It certainly seems like the much hoped for case is becoming a possibility if not already a reality.
Well done “The Analyst”
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Well said. This is indeed a turning point moment.
IMHO, the war will grind on, but Russians are unlikely to rise up against the regime. The serf mindset is deeply entrenched. The regime will break from within. Ukraine has developed a strategic focus on the things that fuel the Russian war machine, and they have held that focus admirably, despite internal problems raising sufficient manpower; gradually removing the baked in Soviet military thinking in their military; the continuing plague of corruption that Russian rule embedded; and so on. They kept the focus in the face of horrific terrorism on the part of the Russians.
They defied the Americans. Trump mocked Zelensky with his “you don’t have the cards” claim. But it’s clear who holds the aces now – and it is definitely not Trump. He’s merely a corrupt criminal due to meet the karma coming his way at some point.
The Chinese prepared meticulously for Trump’s visit. Naturally, he just winged it, because he’s such a “great businessman” with “great instinct”. They wiped the floor with him.
Putin has few options remaining. China doesn’t want Russia to lose the war. OTOH, the CCP has its own cause for enmity, after decades of arrogant subordination by the Russian led Soviet Union treated them as second class communists. Xi will relish the position of superiority Putin has gifted him to flex his authority over the Russians. Russia needs whatever help China is willing to offer, on almost any terms that China sees fit to impose.
Ukraine can only win on the battlefield if Russian lines break when command and control breaks down; or logistics fails. The deep strikes put pressure on both of these lynch pins. IMHO, the most likely way the war will end is within the pressure cooker of a failing dictatorship. Dictators rule by fear, and hold with money, power and privilege. As the scale of failure grows within Russia, the pressure within the regime mounts accordingly. There are still too many making too much money from the war within Russia. Russian serfdom suffering is immaterial to them as long as this holds.
It is this profit engine that must be crippled. The deep strikes are the key.
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In 4 years Ukraine has gone from being a poor country under attack to a military and moral superpower. The 600 drone attack on Moscow is as significant as the first 1000 Bomber attack on Nazi Germany in 1942. Its a turning point in history, Russia is doomed. The only question is how Russia will fail, it will either be a coup by the military or the front lines will simply collapse with soldiers deserting their positions. Most likely it will be both at the same time
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