RUSSIANS FACE TOUGH COUNTERATTACKS AS UKRAINIANS FIGHT BACK

The situation on the frontlines overall, is one of incremental but small gains for Russia. Their losses have been monumental – exceeding 80,000 in two months, far above their ability to replace them.

The situation in Kursk continues to deteriorate as Russians eventually push their way from the north and west towards Malaya Locknya. The way the front operates here is a little different. Rather than ‘solid’ lines it’s more mobile and positional with areas of zones of control for both sides that overlap. it’s difficult to assess who actually controls what completely, but it is clear the Ukrainians have lost around 55% of the land they held at peak. The strike on Russian command positions may have hindered their continued advance.

Chasiv Yar has seen Ukrainian counter attacks drive the Russians back to their strong points. Partly this is down to poor Russian logistics and their habit of trying to force territory gains even when they only have infantry. They over extend themselves and the Ukrainians take advantage of that, punishing them severely, it forces a retreat.

In the south the collapsing front lines north of Vuhledar have had some respite.

The Russians it was hoped, would have to fight their way up a long line of villages situated on a river that runs SE through a salient that’s developed. The Russians have come north on a wide front and pushed south and west towards Khurakove from the north. This has left the Ukrainians in a large salient shaped like a U on its side. The river and villages running through the middle.

If things had worked out differently the Russians were expected to have to push up the river village by village, which would have taken a year or more. However the collapsed southern front meant they were in a position to strike from the tops of the U, close the top and force rapid abandonment of a huge area.

The Ukrainians were aware of this and preempted the attempt from the south, using marines to knock the Russians off balance and prevent the southern forces moving north.

How long they can hold off such attacks is still a matter of debate. The U shaped salient is worryingly large and eventually if the Russians place enough force either side at the neck, it’s going to be hard to prevent a breakthrough.

The policy of active defence and swift counter attacks to preempt obvious Russian moves is entirely sound. Keeping them off balance is essential to slow them down.

THE EASTERN SUMMIT

The EU/NATO Governments of Eastern Europe – excluding the troublemakers of Slovakia and Orban’s Russia worshipping autocracy Hungary, are meeting in Stockholm this week. All of Scandinavia, the Baltic states, Poland, Czechia, & Romania are looking at how, in the event of Trump cutting aid, which seems to me to be inevitable the more you see his picks for the administration (7 billionaires so far and 30 others who worked on Project 2025), what can they do as a group to help support Ukraine.

If you’re wondering why this doesn’t include the western EU and NATO states it’s got a lot to do with the weakness of Germany, as it enters a difficult election cycle and yet more indescribable indecision. Add to that a less than strong French government that is barely holding a coalition together. Germany is economically on the down, France is spending 6% more money than it earns and has to reduce that to 3% because of its membership of the EU and fiscal rules, and besides it’s simply unsustainable. The UK is giving what it’s giving and is outside of the EU and the economic benefits and system the others are in, so it has no place at this table.

The Eastern group knows they are next if Trump tries to go down the isolationist path, lets Putin have his way and looks to impose a peace Ukraine can’t accept.

That means they have to stand up and be ready – and if the west of Europe doesn’t feel threatened, well they do. They will not let Ukraine go down without a fight.

The aim is to standardise ammunition supply approaches, industrial development, maintain humanitarian aid, drone partnerships, and so on.

Yet it is also about working as a bloc to make sure the whole EU and NATO pulls its weight, and drag the rest along with it.

A good deal of it will be spent on integrating air forces commands – Sweden/Finland the Baltics are already setting up a joint air force command structure to help them work more closely together. Expect others to join. Expect a wider Baltic Sea cross-cooperation even tighter than it has been but working if needs be, separated from NATO if Trump makes it difficult to operate.

None of these countries are planning on being next on Putin’s menu.

The main focus though is Ukraine – what to do to keep it fighting as long as it needs to fight.

I find this endeavour to be one of foresight and imagination. Poland has been the leader in this and the others quickly came together. Eastern Europe has woken up to the threat it faces and it’s doing something for Ukraine and itself. It will also strengthen their voice in NATO and in the EU to get more done and create greater self reliance when Trump inevitably as they see it, falls to Putin’s flattery. With an administration filled with Russia supporting, taking point reposting fools, we all know where this is going. We saw it all before and we’re going to see it all again but worse this time.

The frontlines are under huge stress. The political aspect of the missile strikes and the introduction of IRBM’s has been allowed to complicate matters when it should not have. There’s nothing here to see. Russia is using a new type of missile. That’s it. So what? The surprise element is out of the way, done. He doesn’t have many and it will be months before they can produce them in volume. He isn’t going to use nuclear weapons. Move on.

What Trump does won’t surprise us. Assume it’s a mess and we won’t like it. If it’s better that’s good, if not it’s no surprise and we knew it would get tough. Being prepared is what matters – and no pandering to him or to Putin.

It’s time Europe found its teeth and put them back in. The Eastern Europeans and the Baltics must lead the way. With Ukraine and if needs be, without America.

Combined we win. It’s that simple.

‘The Analyst’

Slava Ukraine !

MilitaryAnalyst.bsky.social