The UK sent around 48 newly refurbished Storm shadows to Ukraine just before the permission to use them inside Russia was granted.
On the frontlines the Ukrainians carry out some remarkable defensive operations, testing the Russians to the maximum and extracting heavy casualties.
In Kursk the Russians have advanced from the west and north and are now pressing Malaya Locknya. Small Ukrainian gains in the east are of little consequence.
The Kremina-Svatove-Kupiansk line is weakening in the centre and north with Russian forces over the Oskil river in one small area. Kupiansk however was cleared of Russians by yesterday.
Chasiv Yar is the site of bitter fighting.
Much of the Pokrovsk section shows considerable advances every day as the Russians press forward.
The situation in the south is even worse. With the fall of Vuhledar, vast areas of land have been lost and fighting rages between Kurakhove and Novo Vilisylka.
Intelligence officials say that as many as 30,000 Russian troops are massing for a northward strike towards the city of Zaporhizia.
Ukraine is just about holding out in places.
The Russians smell victory and that makes them very unlikely to want to talk.
Ukrainians are afraid that when Trump takes office he will try to end the war under the illusion that Putin will simply agree because it’s him.
That’s never going to happen. Trump may try that but there has to be a carrot and a stick. The carrot will inevitably be that Ukraine will have to lose some land – even most Ukrainians accept that point however much they hate it. Officially it’s unacceptable but the reality is that’s what it is.
But Trump has to provide a stick – an ‘or else’. He has to be able to say, this is the deal, Ukraine will go with this but if you don’t – then the US will swamp Ukraine with so much military equipment and aid you will be fighting this war for another four years and your economy can’t take it.
If this isn’t the ‘or else’ what incentive does Putin have to stop? He thinks he’s winning.
He’s all in, chips on the table and calling everyone’s bluff. Every moment between now and January 20 will be Putin pushing to gain as much as he possibly can regardless of cost. The only enemy that might stop them is a harsh winter – but we haven’t seen one of those for years as climate change pushes milder air north and west over Ukraine.
Ukrainians are worried. Worried that Trump will try and sell them out and force them to fight to the bitter end alone with only European backing.
They worry that post war security guarantees won’t be enough unless they’re in NATO.
They know that Trump is looking to refocus American military power against China. Over 30 of his new administration picks are anti-China hawks.
They don’t know how this will end and they don’t want to be left out of the talks. They will not be sidelined. They will not be ignored.
Holding back the Russians for as long as they can is all they can do. But they know this war must end in 2025. Their fear is it ends at their expense.
We cannot let that happen.
The Analyst
MilitaryAnalyst.bsky.social
The Military Analyst 
Thank you yet again.
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