POLAND’S MILITARY MODERNISES: A RISING NATO POWER

There is no country in NATO more determined to push its defences to the next level than Poland.

Poland has a long history of being abused by its neighbours – particularly Russia.

After several centuries of relatively enlightened independence the Polish kingdom fell into civil war in the 1700’s and was subsequently cut up by its neighbours, Prussia, Austria and Russia. There were three such ‘Partitions’ that redistributed territory between them.

When Napoleon-I came along he created the Grand Duchy of Warsaw, creating what for many Poles was the start of a return to some kind of self determination. Polish military forces played a loyal role on the side of France because of it.

As the Napoleonic era drew to a close in 1814 with Napoleon’s abdication, (he returned briefly in 1815 to be defeated decisively at Waterloo by Wellington). Warsaw was once again occupied, by Emperor Alexander-I of Russia – the British tried to persuade him to give Poland its freedom but he was an arch imperialist and had no intention of doing so. Besides which Prussia and Austria would give back none of their Polish territories. It would be over a century, in 1919, before Poland was able to assert its sovereignty as Russia collapsed into civil war.

A brief war from 1920-22 between Poland and the Russians left Poland victorious, extracting a sizeable chunk of territory now in modern Ukraine and Belarus. With defeated Germany and the collapsed Austria-Hungarian empire also ceding areas, such as Posen and Galicia, Poland was once again a sizeable country.

The sore point for the Germans was the Danzig (modern Gdansk) Corridor. This left Danzig as a neutral city and port technically under the League of Nations, with a slither of Polish territory that separated Germany from East Prussia – the upper half of which is today’s Kaliningrad Russian exclave.

With the start of WW2, as Germany invaded Poland on September 1st 1939, four days later Britain and France declared war on Germany. On the 17th Russia invaded from the East under the Terms of the Nazi-Soviet Pact. Within the month Poland was no more, along with Soviet annexation of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia which had only gained independence in 1919.

Both Russia and even more so Germany under Governor General Hans Frank, began a ruthless extermination of Polish political, cultural, intellectuals and religious leaders. Poland’s large Jewish population was quickly singled out for extermination.

Russia attempted to defeat Finland in early 1940 – having first tried to blackmail it into surrendering territory. It was a humiliating military operation for the Russians even though Russia gained the territories it wanted. Finland joined the Nazis in attacking Russia in 1941.

For Poland WW2 was a disaster. As the tide of war brought the whole country under Nazi control it became the centre of the holocaust extermination program. As the war turned the Russians were on the doorstep of Warsaw as the uprising occurred – years of planning had the Poles fighting tooth and nail against the Nazis. Stalin ordered his armies to do nothing.

Despite British pleas to help he didn’t budge, allowing the Nazis to defeat the uprising and level Warsaw to the ground. He then sent in his troops as the Nazis fled.

Post war, having taken back the Baltic states, signed a peace with Finland that left it in a strange neutrality dominated by Soviet requirements, Poland re-emerged. Russia effectively shoved Poland geographically westward.

This history gave Poland the undignified reputation of being ‘The doormat of Europe’ – everyone walked over her going east or west.

Its borders today in the west were German territory, it took the southern half of East Prussia to form its modern coastline and the Russians kept the land they had gained in 1939, now most of western Belarus. The Kaliningrad Exclave is Russian to this day. In 1945-1992 though it was connected to Russia via the Baltic states.

Poland was now part of the Soviet Bloc and faced decades of communist rule. It was the centre of the military alliance Russia created to counter NATO – the Warsaw Pact.

In 1980 things started to change as the rumblings of democracy began in Polands Gdansk shipyards. It was a catalyst for the collapse of the communist bloc as a whole.

As Poland returned to democracy it soon applied for NATO membership which Russia opposed but could do nothing about.

With such a history Poland has every reason imaginable and then some, to know that an authoritarian Russia is its enemy. No country in Poland’s position would think for a minute Russia could be trusted and it’s no wonder it has become a leader in the defence of the East of Europe.

In 2019 Poland and NATO conducted a series of war games. It’s normal to carry out 3 or 7 such games to determine a realistic outcome given different scenarios.

These war games were large scale simulations operated by top teams of red and blue military officers playing Russia and Poland.

Based on Poland’s military at the time and NATO deployment and support plans, Warsaw was under Russian occupation and the country effectively conquered in less than three weeks. In one case it was far shorter.

The Poles were horrified.

This began a rapid change in their stance on military expenditure and readiness that has only intensified with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Polish government has this week voted $740 million towards building a 155mm ammunition plant. All 474 members of the lower house voted for it – nobody voted against it or abstained.

The government is planning to increase military expenditure to 4.9% of GDP. That’s the highest in NATO.

The expansion of the Polish air force, army and even its small fleet, is massive.

It is buying the latest S.Korean tanks and artillery, building much of it in Poland.

POLISH MILITARY EXPANSION & MODERNISATION

1. 300,000 man armed forces by 2035
2. sIn 2019 the Leopard-2PL modernisation was approved, along with upgraded T-72M1’s.
3. In 2022 250 Abrams-M-1A2 SEPv3’s were ordered, with an additional 116 refurbished M1-A1FEPs. 212 K9 Self propelled howitzers were approved with the total domestically built reaching 619.
4. 2023 A full additional squadron of F-16 Block 70 were ordered. Poland started talks to obtain F-35’s.18 HIMARS with 500 missiles were ordered. Three squadrons of Korean FA-50 fighter jets were ordered.
5. 2024 A technically unlimited buy of Korean K-2 tanks, more HIMARS, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, F-16 modernization, and multi-role helicopters were ordered. An order for F-35’s seems imminent. Poland also began the air defence program for the. Wisla and Narev systems. The AEGIS ashore BMD defence system was activated. Poland also set itself the goal of having its own intel and communications satellites. A major artillery shell manufacturing program was set in motion, along with additional smaller arms ammunition.

By 2030-35 the Polish army will exceed the UK, France and Germany combined. Let there be no doubt that Poland is heading towards being the predominant NATO military power in Europe and we all should be taking lessons from them, accepting that their concerns and their actions are a realistic response to what we face in modern Russia.

Poland leads the way. Why are so few others following? That’s a question for another day.

The Analyst

MilitaryAnalyst.bsky.social