NK TROOPS IN RUSSIA: A NEW THREAT TO EUROPE?

There’s been a rather odd approach to the appearance of North Korean soldiers fighting in Russia. At the moment that’s the only place they have been seen in combat. Inside the Kursk operation.

Their initial capabilities seem to be what you’d expect from poorly trained and ill coordinated forces that appear to have been incorporated into Russian units. Not only does this deny cohesion it requires a layer of translators and these are few and far between.

The troops seem poorly motivated and lack any understanding of what they’re doing this for.

Russians faced with the loses of NK troops have it appears, been given instructions if they find corpses, to burn off their faces so that they can’t be identified. Almost as if they’re embarrassed at them being there and are trying to hide the fact they even are – when anyone paying attention knows they’re there.

There are people like me asking the question of western authorities why we aren’t reacting more forcibly about the arrival of an Asian pariah state sending its forces to fight in Europe.

Where are the additional sanctions, the harsher enforcement of existing ones, being imposed more readily?

It appears that the policy of saying nothing about something that’s not making any difference in the eyes of western military analysts employed inside the government, prevails.

There is a feeling that drawing attention to it is exactly what Kim in the North is looking for and it will only persuade him to repeat the exercise and send yet more soldiers and droopy barrelled artillery.

Besides, goes the response – they haven’t yet set foot in Ukraine. That apparently is the dividing line.

And this morning I watch as Pentagon and State Department briefers start warning of an escalation if NK troops appear inside Ukrainian official borders. Additional warnings that NK troops are legitimate targets.

Yet where is the end to end condemnation of NK for its actions? Again it’s about not giving it credence and not letting Kim in the North think he’s making a difference.

I understand this policy, but it should be two-tiered. We should minimise its effect on the overall situation while at the same time making it clear it’s got to have a price and pointing out that Russia and NK are being exactly what they claim of us – provocative and escalatory.

There’s a lot more we could do to enforce sanctions and embargoes on NK and make their lives more difficult. At the same time we have to make it clear to the public that an East Asian army of opportunity is now fighting on the European continent against Europeans. That is the first time we can say that since the Golden Horde roamed the Asian landmass into Europe five centuries ago.

Personally I think in terms of historical significance that’s a big deal. The reality on the ground may be different – for now – but if NK forces begin to swell in numbers until they make a real difference? What then? How do we deal with that?

If NK forces cross into Ukraine that’s a whole new level of combat status. They would be actively involved in a war in a third party state as full on combatants. Is that not a point where Russia opens the door to western soldiers fighting inside Ukraine? Would we in the weak willed west simply ignore it?

Is it a matter of principle or of publicity? Is it a concern or is it a flagrant expansion of the war? At what point does it matter to us?

There are potential complications on the Korean peninsula itself. The demilitarized zone is the result of two years of negotiations in 1952-53, and remains the demarcation line between North and South. There has never been a peace treaty, the war is still, technically ongoing. The war was a complex business – technically the United Nations is still at war with N.Korea. The United States and South Korea are still at war with the North. Communist China was a participant in the war on the side of N.Korea (but was not then a member of the UN, its seat was still held by the Republic of China, that we acknowledge today as Taiwan). Communist Chinese forces fought UN and US troops. UN troops included many nations from Australia to the UK and France plus many others.

Now it’s all very easy to ignore the fact all this took place 70 years ago, but sooner or later someone will want to test the legalities of the situation. Kim of the North stepping out of his box to rattle the cages of the West is typically provocative. But at what level does he think it’s enough? Is he doing it for the nuisance value, to keep Russia’s attention? or simply to extract money and technology and some nice cars from the desperate Russians? NK has been diplomatically isolated for years, Kim’s never had so much attention. He probably knows it wont last and that’s a problem. If he craves more of what Russia can offer for men, he’ll take it. But what happens when Russia hasn’t got anything left worth having? Does he drop them before they drop him?

Worse though would be if this was a genuine effort to tilt the balance of the war and that what we’re dealing with is the tip of a North Korean manpower iceberg. Maybe Kim thinks he can have such an impact on the US and its allies it will force a change of fortunes for his isolated and backward country? Does he think this is the way to become normalized on the international stage? He’s greatly mistaken if he does. If Russia is seen to win the war in any way, it will simply mean the West especially isolates him more. If he does try and use his manpower to influence the outcome – win or loose – he’ll still be isolated. As long as he runs the country like a slave camp it’s never going to be any other way. And as that’s the only way he can maintain his dynastic power, nothing will change.

What will frighten Kim to death is Putin’s inevitable fall. It’s coming, sooner or later. The way China is going internally at the moment, with its crippling economic problems and deluded monetary policy, even that system isn’t as safe as it was. Kim could easily find himself an island in a sea of disruption and his once tolerant ‘allies’ less than enamored with his problems and attention seeking.

In the meantime we need to educate our people, because as someone I have known fifty years said to me the other day, “I don’t care what happens as long as it doesn’t affect me”. Then she asked me what I did for a living. My stock answer for anyone who says stupid things like that is not to pierce their ignorance when it’s that deep, but that ‘I write’. They ask what, I point them to my nine books under my pen name. That’s all they need to know. But it frightens me that so many want to know nothing and look blankly at the problem as if it’s happening on another planet a billion light years away.

That’s how people are seeing these NK ops in Russia. Even at high levels. Ukraine isn’t seeing it like that. Americans are just waking up to the idea of NK troops in Ukraine. Yet everyone else is sleep walking around it in my view. We do so at our potential peril. I’d rather treat it as the threat it could be than the chances it’s nothing more than grandstanding.

As NATO SecGen Mark Rutte said last week, we need to be thinking that we’re already at war and we need to have that mindset. After three years of Ukraine and endless intimidation of the Philippines and Taiwan, the situation in the Middle East has seen the only bright spot in Syria – the Gaza massacres seem to be over but what utter devastation its been, Iran has been sent packing and Russia too, Hezbollah neutralized. The dictators haven’t had it all their own way. And it’s not over yet.

2025 is going to interesting.

The Analyst

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