SHIFT IN POWER: ISRAEL v. IRAN

While many of us have been enjoying the lead up to Christmas and the festivities, during a time the world seem often to stop around us, that’s not how it’s been in the world that doesn’t celebrate this time of year.

We were all stunned by the sudden and remarkable events in Syria, and I discussed with you why these were such fundamental problems for Russia and Iran. Even as Turkey has by any stretch of the imagination, maneuvered itself into the political, diplomatic and commercial victor of the situation – which is still fairly tense in places, another player has changed the rules of the wider game completely.

As Turkey tries its utmost to get the new government stabilized, the Alawites have been protesting on the coast – they supported and are the same sect as Assad and his family. Elsewhere other factions burned down a Christian Christmas tree – the first that had been possible in over a decade – but the culprits were quickly hunted down by the new government. It’s going to be a while before there is real unity and acceptance. Iran won’t want to let go, although right now it has next to nothing to hold on to.

The country that has been re-writing the strategic rule book is Israel. It moved down in to the Syrian side of the Golan heights, and along the Syrian border with Lebanon. On the ground that cuts off much of Hezbollah from any overland routes left to Iran. Israeli tanks are now just 30km from Damascus, creating a ‘sterile demilitarized area’ neither Syrians or anyone else is welcome in. It’s the least of the new governments problems. In many ways it even helps, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was long-agreed with the Turks that this would happen. Because the one thing we haven’t heard is Turkey complain about anything Israel has done. And it’s done a great deal.

Israel, while we haven’t been paying a lot of attention, has hit no less that 484 military targets across Syria. Some of them may appear minor, some of them were huge. The attack on a government arms dump near Latakia was so massive it registered 3.2 on the Richter scale, many say it even eclipsed the massive explosion in Orel a few months ago.

Syrian arms production and storage centers, from its chemical weapons stocks, to its ammunition, airfields, aircraft, command centers and defensive positions have been eradicated in a rolling air campaign that even Israel has admitted is the largest single operation it has ever carried out.

It has in effect completely eradicated the Syrian military and its infrastructure. So now you have to ask, why?

Some of it was clearly a threat not just to Israel. The chemical weapons Assad used on his own people are very real threats in the wrong hands. Add to that decades of Soviet era weapons hoarding. Yet one of the things Syria had that Israel was never comfortable with – and it lost quite a few aircraft to them over the years, was Syria’s air defence network. Consisting of older generation missile systems it’s mostly true, but there were a lot of them. And while less effective than modern systems they were only just below that level. SA-22, SA-17, (Pantsir S-1 and Buk) SA-8 and the like. Now they’re gone.

The reason this matters is going to have major regional implications for Iran. Israel operates a fleet of 7 C-130H tactical air tankers, along with a some aging KC-135 Stratotankers. These are being replaced by six KC-46 Pegasus tankers.

The one thing about these tankers is they’re an easy target. They’re far too easy to spot and shoot down with even a vaguely competent SAM system. if you don’t have any then the air space they can fly in widens enormously, so now it has all of Syria as somewhere Israeli air tankers can operate, that greatly extends the range of the fighter/bomber force into Iran.

What gaining this space means is a huge extension of the Israeli Air Force capacity reach into Iran, because that tankers allow an outbound top up to maximum zeroing the attack aircraft mileage count, and it can refuel the attack aircraft on their return journey to Israel.

Iraq has almost no air defences to consider, and is unlikely to want to get involved with an Israeli operation even if it knew about it.

So what this has done is give Israel the most dominant strategic edge for its air forces, something that the Iranians are way beyond having any means of countering.

It’s only a short time ago that Iran was on Israel’s doorstep, using Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria as its proxies. It spent almost 20% of its GDP for a year, $50 billion propping up Assad and funding Hezbollah. Now the boot is on the other foot. Israel has managed to get its most feared arm effectively in striking range of over 40% of Iran.

Israel has an extraordinary capacity to now do whatever it wants without having to get the Americans on side first.

Israel now has the ability to launch a major first strike into Iran. And Iran has already proven to itself that it’s not capable of doing the same thing. The shock in Iran over the failure of the April missile and drone strike which achieved almost nothing but a broken window or two, has not been lost on anyone.

It won’t all be easy. The Israelis know the Iranians have a good air defence system, it will need F-35’s without external load bays or fuel tanks, and their range is limited but the additional top up there and back from the tankers turns the impossible into the viable, adding as much as 1,200km to the standard 2,100km unassisted range.

IRAN is afraid. It had Hezbollah as its deterrent force. Without Hezbollah what can they do? The decapitated leadership of Hezbollah may never be recoverable.

Israel has been extremely clever by taking the inside of Syria border. They captured Mt Hermon, which allowed Hezbollah to evade Israeli radar and blinded Israel’s ability to see into parts of southern Lebanon. With Israel in control of the mountain, that’s no longer viable. Already Israel is establishing a radar system that will allow it to see any low flying attempt by Iran to get into southern Lebanon. The air and land corridors are cut off and effectively blocked, and supply by sea is simply unviable.

Even if Hezbollah came to life again, it lost so many of its leadership cadre, and is so infested with Mossad agents – many likely promoted to command levels now – it’s not likely Hezbollah can ever be entirely reliable.

The tables have turned on Iran, its alliance with Moscow has brought it nothing but more animosity, and reduced its dire reputation further. It has lost its ability to reach Israel and the balance of terror Hezbollah represented as its principal proxy is no longer a factor. Add to that an incoming US administration that has no love for Iran at all and sees it as a never ending threat, and Iran is backed into a corner.

There is a major downside to this – if Iran feels it’s been sufficiently blocked in it may feel it needs to proceed with a nuclear weapon as that final level of insurance. The current elderly Supreme Leader may not permit it, he’s opposed it for years. His likely successors are not so sure that’s the right path – at least one has said he would have no hesitation if he felt it necessary.

Iran does have a choice. It could simply behave normally, but it has devoted its system of government towards an external enemy, in a permanent effort to distract its citizens from the miseries of their own lives and any attempt to topple the sclerotic and corrupt regime.

Meanwhile, Israel now has the capacity to do far more to Iran than Iran can possibly manage to inflict on Israel. The wheel has turned and both sides know it. Iran is unlikely to try and take a different path. It’s been outplayed and and out resourced. It could be years if ever, before it’s in a position to threaten Israel as it has until this year.

Whatever we may think of Israeli behaviour, there’s no doubt they have played the game, turned it around and driven the opposition from the field.

This chapter is undoubtedly Israel’s victory.

The Analyst

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