MOLDOVA & TRANSNISTRIA: RUSSIA’S NEXT LOSS?

Moldavia as the Russians called it, was part of the Soviet Union and it declared its independence on August 27 1991. It was never going to be easy. The Russian government was not happy about losing the biggest weapons depot in East Europe and many – but not a majority – ethnic Russians, lived along the inner bank of the Dnestr that forms the border with Ukraine. Technically the Soviet Union still existed and it supported the ethnic Russians who were actively encouraged to create a separate state – a brief bout of fighting ensued, eventually ended but policed by Russian troops who remain there 32 years later.

Transnistria is recognized by nobody as a separate state, not even Russia. It was never supposed to have lasted so long or been occupied by a Russian ‘peace keeping’ force, but when Vladimir Putin came along he saw the advantages immediately.

Moldova had seen chronic economic collapse from its links with the Soviets. It had been deliberately severed from its cousins in Romania by both communist regimes, and the new Ukraine was in no position to help it. By late 1998 75% of Moldovans were living in poverty, it was and still is the per capita poorest nation in Europe. Russia supplied its energy needs but the country could barely afford to pay with no industry or economic advantages. Corruption was rampant, there has never not been a pro-Russia element in the country hankering for the old days, while most want to get into the EU and move forward, knowing it will bring investment and jobs. Over 9% of the population emigrated, many to Romania and Germany.

Political scandals, mostly caused by Putin’s endless attempts to meddle in the country and direct it away from the EU, have persisted up to current times. The Romanian presidential election in 2024 another example of interference, was rendered invalid because the first round winner, a right wing fascist nobody had heard of, had been propelled into the lead by a TikTok campaigns supported by Russia and China.

Eventually even in contested Moldova, Maia Sandhu won a second term many felt she richly deserved.

In 2025 the country is again in crisis. This time it’s Russia’s doing.

Transnistria has one old soviet era steel mill and blast furnace. It is highly energy intensive and inefficient but one of the biggest employers in the breakaway state.

The Russians have been supplying gas virtually free of charge to Transnistria via the southern pipelines under the Black Sea that run through Turkey and up into the Balkans across Bulgaria and Romania, into Moldova. Remember that Moldova is not in the EU or NATO.

As the contracts with Ukraine expired at the end of 2024, the Russians who have chosen to equate the cut off of gas to Transnistria with this for propaganda purposes – they are in fact not connected at all, have stopped supplying gas to Transnistria saying that it has not paid (despite being given it for free because it suited Russia’s agenda). To make this more complicated the principal shareholder in the Moldovan Gas Company – which is technically the bill payer for Transnistria – is Russian gas giant Gazprom.

So Gazprom owes itself money and has cut off its client state from the gas for not paying. This is nothing less than a political move to cause trouble.

Moldova, which is also suffering from the shut down of the Kurchurgan power plant, from which it gets as much as 60% of its electricity, has been buying in as much as it can from Romania and is actually importing American LNG via the new terminal in Greece. It’s also building new links into the EU and Romania and a new power station due to go online this year.

The Moldovan Government in Chisinau has offered the Transnistrians sufficient energy to run their homes and heating, but not to operate the steel plant which, because of the nature of the old equipment may never run again once its cooled down. Transnistria has declined the help, which is plain madness.

Transnistria has been said by many who have been there to be like some kind of strange soviet era theme park where nothing has changed in over 33 years. The majority speak Russian and are of Russian decent sent there in the 1950’s to work the steel mill and ‘colonise’ the Moldovans. It’s a land ruled by the Sharif family enterprises who own everything in a most un-soviet way. The government has told everyone to stay indoors, cover the windows and do everything they can to stay warm.

In all seriousness how long can this last? How long can people sit about without going out for food that won’t be on empty market shelves? This whole thing is an ideological fools errand – Moldova is offering help, but the Transnistrians for now, believe Russia will save them, despite the fact it’s Russia who cut off the gas supply – a supply it lured the Transnistrians into thinking it would give them forever.

Moldova too, is struggling with the loss of energy supplies but at least it’s temporary and managing the situation even if people don’t like it, and its longer term plans to replace its gas and generation capacity are literally taking shape this year, and due to enter service.

Why is this going to be a bad move for Russia? Because yet again it’s desperate. Yet another example of doing something to annoy somebody without any other real endgame in mind. It’s about causing problems and aggravation because it can, without having an end game. This has been a Russian trait for centuries.

Transnistrians are going to wonder why on earth they’re sat indoors starving and freezing in a few days, a week maybe. They will find out Moldova wants to help eventually. They will ask why are we letting this happen? When enough do and all of the hardships and struggle to be part of a Russia that’s never going to come for them now, that horse has bolted, finally sinks in, it will amaze us all as it did in Syria, how fast support evaporates for the government. It may even lead to a renewed relationship with Moldova, which is heading towards EU membership. All the suffering and isolation will have been for nothing.

What will become of the Russian troops? There are 500 and around 1,500 locals working with them to secure the Cobasna arms depot, believed to be the largest in Eastern Europe. Estimated to have some 20,000 tons of ancient rotting 152mm soviet era artillery shells, and less than 2km from Ukraine. The Russian ‘peace keepers’ are trapped there but at least they’re not dead fighting in the war. The depot was to have been emptied by 2015, under a 1995 agreement, but that was stopped by Putin in 2004. Sabotage is an issue, and the concept of a 20kt explosion in a tiny place like Transnistria is no minor one. Ukraine and Moldova would both suffer. This is another of those random factors that can play a role at any time. But firstly the Transnistrians have to make up their minds, is their slavish devotion to Russia enough to make them freeze and starve or do the scales finally fall from their eyes and they realize none of this has been worth it? Bitter cold, starving children and pangs of hunger rapidly change opinions.

The Analyst

militaryanalyst.bsky.com