THE RUSSIAN PLAYBOOK – HOW TO DESTABILIZE YOUR NEIGHBORS

There are few countries that history can give you a direct lesson on how they will behave, Russia is one of them. We’re not just talking the last 25 years, or even since 1945, or 1850, or even 1800, but all the way back to 1613, when the Romanov’s finally created a dynasty that would last.

If you ever wonder why the Russians always have this thing for wanting to nuke Britain, they were discussing it on TV only the other day again, saying that nobody would mind if they nuked us because who would care? They seem to think one of our Vanguard SSBN’s would sit silently by and not destroy Moscow and its environs as a punishment, but there we go. However the reason, is because deep inside Russian consciousness they have never forgiven these tiny islands for having the world’s largest Empire and using it to stop unmitigated Russian imperial expansion for over 145 years from 1800-1945. They think they beat us you see, in the end, and that we are always behind every plan NATO and the US and the EU comes up with to counter Russian operations around the world. They actually think that we are the ones who whisper in the ears of others and pull the strings. They go so far as blaming Ukrainian resistance in the early days on Britain promising to aid it and that others would follow suit. It’s entirely down to their resentments of course. And partly their fear – that they may be as diminished in global importance as Britain appears to be. That’s why they were so delighted over Brexit.

You have to understand that for much of its history, and even now, Russia is all smoke and mirrors. It has never been as powerful as it looks, save for those couple of years at the end of WW2 when it was a genuine military colossus. But that’s all it was. And it was only because of American and British military aid it achieved that. It’s shocking how quickly the Soviet economy crashed back down to earth after 1945.

Russia never had the money or the industrial knowledge to develop into a useful economy. It turned right back to what it had always done, across centuries. It couldn’t afford to get directly involved in a war without risking conflict it couldn’t pay for or would be forced to back out of through lack of money.

Subterfuge, disinformation, bribery, secret service operations, spying, assassinations, coup d’état and infiltration, all with barely plausible deniability, these were always its first choices.

What Russia excels at is creating an image of strength and using that to inspire fear.

The later years of the communist era and the past 25 years saw oil and gas bring in extraordinary wealth. That wealth based entirely on commodities, created a distorted economy that’s now paying a price for its shortsightedness, in not using that wealth for the future, but for the present.

Russia used the money, and its vast gas and oil pipeline network to distort the economies of Western Europe, especially Germany which with is powerful and energy hungry auto-industries was a soft touch for Putin’s honeyed words. With people like its former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder becoming so close to Putin they went to each other’s birthday parties, behaved like old friends. Schroeder was even on the board of Gazprom.

Putin understood perfectly because of his KGB training, the power of the ancient Russian art of undermining your friends without them noticing, and even more so how to undermine any of the many former states of The Empire that he wants back. It’s how Russia acquired them in the first place and we have all seen it in operation time and again. But it hasn’t always worked. We’re seeing it again in Georgia, and now Transnistria.

It isn’t either, like Putin just thinks he can try once and not succeed and then goes away. If he doesn’t succeed the first time, he’ll try again a different way. And it isn’t always about control, it’s just as often about denial, of stability, be it in politics or economically. It could be simply ensuring that it’s stopping say Ukraine, from joining NATO or the EU by disrupting part of the country in such way that it cannot participate in those organizations, which was the policy from 2014 through 2022. It could simply be about creating an internal division that roils the politics of a country endlessly, causing it to cease functioning properly – until such times as Russia can find away of making it a reason it needs to interfere directly, or because its so distracted by Ukraine right now it can’t act against Georgia, so it provides the means of destabilizing it until it can.

Russia will go to extraordinary lengths to prevent countries it sees as within its old school sphere of interest from escaping it. Take the attempted coup in Montenegro in October 2016, aiming to stop this small country joining NATO. Everyone knew who was behind it, and it’s a miracle it failed.

Transnistria is next. It’s happening right now.

If you read the previous article that will give you some background as to how we got where we are.

Transnistria has a population of about 425,000 in its narrow and almost ridiculously thin territory. That population contains a bout 200,000 Russian citizens and passport holders. By Ethnicity some 30% are actually Russian. They are the largest group, just below them are Moldovans at a round 28% and Ukrainians at around 23%. The rest are Bulgarians, Gaugauzians, and Belarusians with a handful of Jews and Poles.

You know about the Cobasna arsenal, and the deliberate use of gas supply removal by the Moldovan Gas Company – which is owned 50% by Gazprom and 35% by the Moldovan Government. You know that Moldova promised it would supply gas to Transnistria – but they would have to pay market rates. They didn’t even respond.

Russia deliberately supplied the gas Transnistria needed for free. It did almost the same to Ukraine for years in an effort to stop it diverting westward in its politics and economics. To get out from a $500m gas bill or be cut off, Ukraine sent Blackjack strategic bombers now being used against it, as part payment.

Now Russia is doing the same thing to cause trouble for Moldova and Transnistria. Gazprom claims that Moldova/Transnistria owes it £700m in Gas payments. International auditors say it’s actually only around $8m because Gazprom never charged for Transnistria’s gas and has basically changed the rules unfairly. Moldova offered to pay for that sum immediately if Gazprom would restore supply. They say they can’t because Ukraine cut the supply pipelines – which is totally untrue as the supply was through the Turkstream pipeline. But lies and disinformation being fed to Transnistrians are designed to raise the ire of the locals against Ukraine. Quite what the endgame for this might be isn’t clear, but the possibility that Transnistrians might start military operations – even guerrilla war over Ukraine’s border, thus distracting Ukraine’s military, can’t be ruled out.

Another is that it offers Transnistrian Russian citizens repatriation to Russia, – something Hungary would no doubt help with, because 100,000 fresh Russian citizens could come in handy on the front lines. It would be a nightmare for Moldova, for Romania, cause mayhem and social and economic issues for everyone. Yet I suspect it’s more about riling up hatred against Ukraine, undermining Moldova, and using the soon to be alleged ‘mistreatment’ of Russian citizens as an escalation point. They would also make another handy card to play in the almost inevitable armistice negotiations this year.

Russia has been wanting to find a way to use Transnistria since the invasion began. They started the invasion reaching deeply into Kherson, at one point reaching close to Mikhailayev, largely because Ukrainian traitors left the Antonovski bridge intact. The Russians believed they would not take long to reach the Transnistrian border. Quite bizarrely explosions started happening in Transnistria – between 25 and 27 April, on 6 May and on 5 June. Nobody was even hurt. The targets were almost classic false flag operations, attacking a radio transmitter, the local KGB HQ, Tiraspol Airport and the Cobasna Arsenal.

The Moldovans and Transnistrians denied the allegations that Transnistria had been used to attack parts of western Ukraine, and the whole thing was put down to Russian attempts to get Transnistria involved in the war. At least two Russian generals went on record as saying that part of the reason for the invasion was to ‘rescue’ Russian citizens in Transnistria. This was denied further up the food chain.

The Russians made it clear that they didn’t ‘want’ to invade Moldova but they might have to. In the end Ukraine beat the Russians and the threats were reduced to words.

However – President Lukashenko, always quick to show how involved and on the ball he is, and how close he and Putin are, showed journalists plans for the invasion. In too much detail. There in the bottom right corner, was the Russian plan to enter Transnistria and Moldova, with arrows and unit allocations.

You cannot, ever, rely on a Russian’s word, you cannot trust them, you cannot believe them. Only verification, constant monitoring and willingness to react if they lie or break their word will ever work. If a Russian denies it, he’s lying. If he tells something that resembles truth it’s only because it’s in his best interest to do so to cover up something else.

If there is a Russian involved there’s something wrong. I no more trust the Navalny brigade or the Kara-Murza’s. I’ve seen them sit there and say things that are little more than lightweight replays of watered down Putinism. Navalny even went on record as saying he would never give Crimea back to Ukraine.

It’s simply a fact that Russia and Russians cannot be trusted. They’re made from the same old mold and share the same perverted and dismal history. It’s in their DNA. Britain recognized it 200 years ago. They know we know what they do – though we seem to forget it far too often. If it’s the last thing I ever say, in this world, never trust the Russians, not now, not ever, or anyone contaminated with their money or businesses, in politics or industry, anything. Because you will live to regret it.

The Analyst

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