SIXTH GEN FIGHTERS: THE RACE IS ON

This is probably one of the most significant fighter programs ever to face development. The US, China, UK, Italy, Japan, France, Spain & Germany, potentially Sweden and to a lesser extent Russia, are all engaged in various programs to develop a credible, working Sixth Generation fighter.

Sixth Gen involves ultra-stealthy capabilities, a functional AI battle management computer, the ability to leverage the use of loyal wingmen drones, a total-situational awareness capability fed from AWACS, ground & naval systems, its wingmen and other friendly air combat units.

The Sixth Gen fighter will be the centerpiece of an air combat system of systems, where it will almost certainly be the manned control point of a other units where those other units, be they drones or smart missiles and weapons, electronic warfare and detection, are largely managed by an AI and require only human authentication and tactical savvy to perform at the highest levels.

The biggest problem for the development of all Sixth Gen fighter programs is that technology is likely moving so fast in terms of AI and related capabilities they may never be the most cutting edge, causing problems in upgrading early aircraft, and a rolling increase in expenses in producing ever better ones – a problem already dogging the Fifth Gen F-35 program, and has been a problem even in the 4.5 Gen Eurofighter. It was cheaper to buy new than refit exiting 15 year old aircraft.

The Chinese Program

China revealed its first operational demonstrator very deliberately and very publicly at the Zhuhai Air Show last December. It appears to have three engines, and shows all the signs of the fly-by-wire rear control surfaces needed to make the use of vertical tailplanes unnecessary. Little can be gauged form it, other than its size, which was larger than expected, but could allow flor a significant weapons load.

What shocked everyone was that they were so seemingly far ahead with the program – nobody else has a public flying prototype and nobody else is even close to a test flight in public. The Americans appear to be take aback by the appearance of the aircraft and rightly so given the failure to advance their own program as far as they should have.

The US NGAD – Next Generation Air Dominance Program

Said to be a ‘system of systems’ approach, which should allow for modular upgrades and long term performance, NGAD for the Air Force (because there’s a separate version for the Navy, you know how the Americans have their service rivalries and have to make things cost more), is on paper, an extraordinarily ambitious and capable fighter.

However the Biden administration in 2024 paused the whole thing, declaring a formal Program Pause and Review: The NGAD program’s crewed fighter component has been paused as the Air Force reassesses its requirements, costs, and strategic priorities. This review was initiated due to concerns over the high cost of the platform (estimated at $20 billion for development alone) and its alignment with broader defense needs, such as integrating Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones and addressing Agile Combat Employment strategies.

The outcome was that the project has been suspended and is waiting for the new Administration to confirm a Defence Secretary and eventually an Air Force Secretary. The USAF did extend current contracts to keep momentum on the project going so that it can move ahead once reviewed.

Some early prototypes have been flown but the cost of the program is said to dwarf the F-35 – likely to amount to $2 trillion over its life. The NGAD in its current form was forecast to be at least twice that and more.

Options include not having a manned aircraft at all. An AI F-16 outperformed manned F-35’s just a couple of years ago in close combat fighting.

There’s been a lot of talk over the current program being sent back to the drawing board, saving what is salvageable, but going back to basics to improve the costs and the in-service time frame. The advent of the Chinese actually flying one is likely to catch the attention of the anti-China administration. It’s going to have to be a priority decision if anything is to be done to get back on track.

Whatever the US decides it needs to act fast if it is to maintain any kind of technological edge – a factor that has been crucial in its military assessments of dealing with its enemies. If it hasn’t managed to exel over its opponents technologically, its a numbers game – and the US can’t afford that type of competition unless its willing to spend every last penny to keep ahead.

UK-Italy-Japan From Tempest to GCAP Global Combat Air Program

The UK revealed the Tempest as its go it alone Sixth Gen fighter, knowing full well it could not possibly afford to develop it on its own. Its principal purpose was to attract partners to work with it and offset the cost. Importantly this is as much about skills and technology as it is air defence. The UK is very aware that if its to maintain its high value aviation technology skills and manufacturing sector – on which some 100,000 jobs in a high paying industry depend – it needs and must have a replacement for the Eurofighter Typhoon being at least part manufactured in the UK.

Italy is just as keen on maintaining its own aviation sector. Initially Sweden looked to be the ideal partner for Tempest, but they chose a different path after some consideration. Instead Japan, which had its own program building the domestic Mitsubishi F-2 and wanted to develop its defence industry, decided it wanted in and GCAP was formed. Its about to open offices in Reading, UK.

With three nations involved its already come across some political headwinds. The new UK Labour Government after some thought agreed to fund the development through 2025 with £2.5 billion. Internally and administratively the Japanese are all in at a government level, indeed they absolutely understand it’s the ideal opportunity and have moved a long way to make it happen. Japan needs to be part of a leading cutting edge fighter for the future, rather than buying in American weapons which give it little ability to gain anything and simply sends money abroad, rather than supporting Japanese industries of the future. Publicly Japan has said it has an ‘unwavering commitment’ to the program.

A lot rides on this for Japan. The aircraft has to be flying and operationaly ready by 2035, as 100 F-2’s will start to be retired from that year onward to 2040. The UK needs it as soon as it can get it, as its reluctant to extend the life of the Eurofighters, doesn’t want to buy F-35’s for the Air Force (and still hasn’t decided what to do to fill the carriers which have barely one third of the F-35’s they need).

Yet in Japan itself – even as its Defence Minister is in the UK discussing the project, there is doubt. Many just don’t see why Japan should be involved at all in a weapons system that’s interned for export – countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia are high on the list of likely buyers. It goes against the pacifist tradition of the 1955 constitution, despite the major changes Japan has made to engage in wider defence issues in recent years.

GCAP is popular in the UK and the public have a positive view of it – in Japan trying to get public understanding has met with a wall of silence and even objections. Companies involved in the program say they feel a little embarrassed and want to trumpet the program only once its proven successful.

Weak governments haven’t helped, and the elections in the US have frightened the Japanese who know how disruptive, unreliable and demanding the new administration can be. Yet they say they are committed – a situation that is good for the other two participants who need the stability. It also pressures the UK into keeping its end of the bargain, because upsetting the Japanese on something they see as this vital and important would be hugely damaging.

Italy, through its national company Leonardo, is leading four major areas in the program: flight system integration, weapons integration, training integration, and two mission system activities (weapons effect management and flight control systems). These areas involve significant artificial intelligence content, showcasing Italy’s focus on advanced technology development. Italy has also allocated €8.8 billion to GCAP through its Ministry of Defence, with Leonardo already signing €100 million in research and development contracts. The program is expected to bolster Italian industry by fostering technological expertise, creating jobs, and advancing digital engineering capabilities. Approximately 3,000 Italians are currently working on GCAP-related activities.

Like Japan, Italy is desperate to avoid being caught in the F-35 trap – of being a low level supplier and sending money out of country rather than to its own defence sector, actively contributing to research, development, and decision-making. This approach is supported by a “whole-of-government” effort to promote STEM skills and industrial innovation. Italy, like the UK sees the long term value of the project in terms of exports and ongoing aviation sector innovation.

Technically the Tempest is not as dramatically far reaching in its scope as NGAD. There’s an awareness of it not getting out of hand in costs, that it has to be as good as possible, but it cannot break the bank. There’s a feeling that like SAAB has achieved with the JAS-39 Gripen, it can be extremely capable and cost effective at the same time.

The Americans have to look at global threats, but Italy and the UK have Russia as their principle foe. Japan has Russia to a lesser extent, potentially China and N.Korea as its likely enemies, but Japan has the benefit of knowing it’s not alone in its alliance with Washington.

The Tempest is a large aircraft. Maneuverability has been slightly sacrificed because dog fighting is considered unlikely – this is a missile carrying platform and missiles these days are hyper effective. Designed for stealthy operation, the aircraft will carry advanced weapons like the MBDA Meteor air-to-air missile, SPEAR 3 precision-guided munitions, and Japan’s ASM-3 anti-ship missiles. Other than that it’s fully intended to get as close as it can to the basic tenets of what a Sixth Gen fighter is. This time though everyone is on board with keeping costs down – because if they don’t it will be unaffordable and a waste of time. One of its best attributes is the design is fully created in a digital environment – saving a fortune on testing and developing components. A first flight is expected in 2026, with initial production slated for 2034 and in service operations by 2035 onward. It’s expected to stay in service until 2070 with last builds around 2060. Provided technology doesn’t make it outdated before hand.

If they can all pull this off, it will be a remarkable achievement – a little late to the game maybe, but still a valuable contributor bearing in mind who its real opponents are.

France, Germany & Spain Next Generation Fighter

If ever there was a case of the French demanding they’re in charge without looking like they’re in charge, this is it.

Spain’s aviation industry is componentary and segments for the civilian Airbus programs and the Eurofighter. Brexit meant to Spain that the UK was no longer a viable aviation partner, and it was sucked into the Franco-German NGF almost by default. Even Germany was a tad reluctant, having been involved with the UK, Spain and Italy in the Eurofighter program. A fair segment of German industry was keen to carry on that relationship, but France and Germany have Airbus and deep aviation cooperation. Germany thought that would give it more say over the Sixth Gen program.

France had other ideas, it wanted Dassault to run the show, because it needs to maintain its independent military aviation sector come what may. With all of its non-Rafale fighter capacity about to be committed to the scrap yard – both Air Force and navy will be entirely Rafaele in the future, it needs the new Sixth Gen fighter to be a success and it needs to be in control of its destiny. Generally speaking, it managed to retain the lions share of assembly and manufacturing, allegedly taking on as much as 65% of the work in France.

Unsurprisingly the Germans are not happy about it, the French don’t want to give in. A new German government may well change its mind and opt out – because it would rather get in with the GCAP project and retain its existing relationships with Italy and the UK.

The NGF is expected to have a final design in March 2025, with a prototype flying by mid 2027. Production isn’t expected until 2036/8. The cost of the program is said to be €100 billion – another issue for the Germans who are currently in recession. Sources inside France and Germany both argue that the development costs are far too high and need dealing with, but often with the French state involved things just bog down and happen anyway.

The program aims to secure the EU’s strategic autonomy in defense technologies by reducing reliance on U.S.-made platforms like the F-35. It also seeks to strengthen industrial cooperation among France, Germany, and Spain while addressing future threats through advanced capabilities.
The program remains a cornerstone of European defense ambitions but faces significant hurdles in maintaining cohesion among its partners and adhering to its ambitious timeline. There are a lot of politics involved. Industrial leadership issues, sovereign capability concerns, and yet trying to maintain European Union cohesion.

One problem that France has always faced is its military aircraft are often too expensive for export – Rafele has been a disappointment because of it, NGF could well go the same way, especially if its only considered mediocre and lacks value when it enters service.

Sweden – Future Combat Aviation Concept (KFS)

Intended to replace the Jas-39 Gripen, it fits all the usual aims of Sixth Gen mentioned at the top of this article. However it has a unique propulsion system powered by an adaptive cycle engine co-developed with GKN Aerospace, capable of Mach 2.5 speeds without afterburners. The engine generates significantly more electrical power, supporting advanced systems like directed energy weapons.

A demonstrator aircraft is expected by 2026, with concept analysis continuing until 2029. Full-scale development is planned through the early 2030s, aiming for operational deployment by 2035.

Originally Sweden was in with the Tempest concept, but didn’t think it would work for its own needs. However high development costs for a single country may force it to look at cooperation with one of the European programs if its to be successful.

RUSSIA MiG-41 PAK-DP

The MiG-41 is envisioned as a high-speed interceptor capable of reaching speeds between Mach 4.3 and Mach 5, designed to replace the MiG-31. It will feature advanced stealth, hypersonic capabilities, anti-satellite missile systems, and optionally manned operations. The MiG-41 is also alleged to operate in near-space environments, making it unique among global sixth-generation concept.

However Russia is way behind everyone else – the war in Ukraine has sapped resources to the point of little more than conceptual, and even some of that seems a little far fetched for them to achieve any time soon. However never discount what they can achieve.

The Su-57 Evolution is also another possibility, its been suggested incorporating Sixth Gen capabilities is a possibility to an upgraded aircraft.

CONCLUSION

Costs are clearly a big deal for everyone. These technologies are cutting edge and can easily run wild. That’s why NGAD has paused, cost overruns are almost inevitable and the military is all too good at trying to change things while they’re being developed and adding yet more time and expense. China may have taken the public lead. The Americans are cagey over how far they’ve got with NGAD but clearly it looks like it’s heading out of control cost wise.

The Europeans seem nowhere near ready to embark on the serious part of the program. Germany has to decide what to do and the February elections will be critical.

Oddly enough for once the British-Japanese-Italian GCAP looks to be on the best footing, despite financial pressures in the UK that are nothing to do with the fighter’s development.

Sweden, if it can pull it off, could be a very novel offering that appeals to many. But it’s so expensive, I think it will have to cooperate with GCAP eventually.

The Russians – if it happens it’ll be interesting but it won’t until the war is over and even then it may be years off.

In any event, Sixth Gen is coming – and trillions of Dollars, Pounds, Yen, Euros & Yuan are going to be spent on it over the next 35 years.

The Analyst

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