After the tumultuous events of the NATO meeting and then the earthquakes of the Munich Security Conference, I was tempted to break it down. But so much has been written I doubt I could add anything that would make it any more comprehensible. The one thing I haven’t mentioned was the fact the United States Vice President met with the leader of Germany’s AfD (Alternative for Deutchland) party. He basically endorsed an extreme right wing politician in the middle of the German elections. It’s a mind numbing moment, horrible, disappointing and the day after he had laid a wreath at Dachau concentration camp. Clearly historical comprehension isn’t one of his strong points. The Germans accused him of interfering in their politics.
We have now moved on to a week that will see the start of negotiations to end the war. It commenced with the Kremlin yet again questioning the sovereignty of Ukraine and its right to even be in the room. Frankly I question why the United States needs to be in the room, who are they to hijack the process for their own ends? Yet that’s exactly what the Russians want. Europe, which should have been the joint leader in these negotiations with the US has been told it will not even be in the room. Again, a Russian win because they will do anything to prevent the EU from becoming the fourth pole in the otherwise three power multi-polar world they think they’re entitled to, of Russia the US and China. The EU asserting its position in the world and refusing to be ignored isn’t something they want, and nor do the Americans. That is about to change I think. And the fact is they both made sure it happens by trying to make sure it does not.
Europe is – as we will likely find out today – quietly seething with anger. It is now in effect, dumped by its long term partner on which it has been overly reliant for a very long time, to its own detriment. Certainly it should have done more before this to balance the relationship.
However this time it has Ukraine in its corner. Europe and Ukraine together are a big deal, and now is the time they must work together. Because one way or another, Ukraine is in a far better position than Russia, and President Zelensky has made it absolutely clear Ukraine will not accept any ‘diktat’ coming from Russia or America. If it doesn’t suit Ukraine, if it isn’t reasonable and meets their requirements then they will say ‘no’ – even at the risk of American support.
Ukraine is in a far better position than Russia to decline to say no. It isn’t the defeated power here – it’s held its own despite the challenges thrown at it. It’s made some mistakes, it’s had and continues to have multiple issues – what country at war does not? Yet the tide of the war turned in an act of desperation that was a stab in the dark, had no real strategic vision and even its principle organizer has admitted, he really didn’t see why it should be this. Neither Zelensky or Syrski knew what would come of it, they just had to do something to throw the Russians off balance, show they could do something offensive while in the middle of being relentlessly driven back through the summer season. And they needed to lift morale urgently, and get Ukraine back into the headlines. So they attacked in Kursk.
In doing so they did succeed in throwing the Russians off balance. It took months though for the lumbering and incompetent Russian war machine to respond. After a brief success it went totally pear shaped, and now is a painful thorn in Russia’s side. Yet the fact is Russia was stretched, further and more dramatically than it was greatly realized. It was only truly appreciated when the North Koreans turned up, just how bad the Russian situation was getting.
The Ukrainian methods of attrition in retreat, conceding only when they had to, taking down Russian manpower at levels close to 7:1 and more, eventually had its effect. The reduction in Russian artillery dominance from 10:1 to 2:1 has been because of a relentless never ending campaign to find and destroy artillery by drone attack. The Russians loose as many 30-60 artillery units a day, every day. Its been so consistent its almost no longer mentioned, yet its been a critical game changer for an army that considers artillery the ‘God of War’. Loss of Russian tanks, IFV’s and APC’s has been so clearly noticeable its dragged down the pace of Russian advances.
These days a major battle involves 30 vehicles – and half of them are likely to be motorbikes and high speed ATV’s. The skies are full of drones, most of them Ukrainian and the Ukrainians have found some means of jamming the Russian drones out of use in wide areas. This is why the Russians been concentrating so heavily on fiberoptic versions, despite their range and terrain limits, and limited availability. Ukraine is winning the drone war, in terms of production, technology, capability and effectiveness. Some of that is because countries like the UK, Denmark, Norway, Germany and others have been deeply involved in assisting in technological and manufacturing development. A new German drone, 6,000 of which are heading to Ukraine right now, are an allegory for the Lancett-3 – but far better in range, loitering capacity and have a fearsome AI if they get cut off from their operator, combined with greater speed. They also have a networking capability and can work out a coordinated strike without assistance if necessary.
Add to this the vast strides in strategic drone operations and the relentless attacks on Russian economic targets, which have ramped up on a scale that makes Russian attacks on Ukraine look progressively less effective. The Russians wasted their time attacking civilian infrastructure – a mistake I remember discussing on my Telegram channel two years ago. They could attack housing and schools and universities to their hearts content, but if they thought it was going to make Ukraine surrender they were seriously mistaken, because it did not materially affect the Ukrainians ability to prosecute the war.
And let’s not forget the situation in the Black Sea. The Russian fleet has been defeated and isolated by a country that doesn’t even have an operational warship. Little in military history at sea can express the significance of that victory.
The Ukrainians have European backing economically, and they will continue to get it. They have the Czech Initiative that only yesterday, was confirmed as having delivered 1.6 million 155mm shells in the past year and is set to increase that to 1.8 to 2 million in the coming one. Ammunition from Europe and elsewhere has finally caught up with needs. It’s increasing at the very point the Russian artillery is decreasing. The pendulum is swinging the other way.
Overall, though the Russians will never accept it, they are finding their position increasingly difficult. They have it seems, stretched themselves as far as they can without utterly wrecking their domestic situation – and they’re close enough to that to be worried.
Like Germany in WW2, Russia had all the advantages and the power, but eventually the economic power of the West and communist Russia’s motivation and organisation and shear size, exhausted the Germans and then left them rolling backwards to defeat. Ukraine has faced down the Russians, is supported fully by the majority of a Europe that’s barely begun to animate its military industry. The US may have supplied a lot of equipment, but Europe (including the non-EU states), has exceeded it in money spent. And it will do so even if the US backs off and walks away.
I’m convinced that Ukraine is still on the rise – and I believe that at the very top, in Putin’s mind, he can see the reality of it, even if he is unwilling to accept it. He would never say it or admit to anyone. Russia needs this peace, economically and militarily. Ukraine might want it but it doesn’t need it. If the war goes on another year, Russia will eventually find itself on the back foot, some of its land gains recovered by their legal owners. It knows that cannot be allowed to happen, morale is already bad, defeats would be a disaster. And it would put him in a bad position for any negotiations.
The Ukrainians know they have not been defeated, they know they can make Russia even worse off. They haven’t yet targeted the key oil shipment loading ports, which would shut down exports from Russia completely. They could, if Russia tries again to attack its electrical infrastructure, do the same thing back, because they now can. That would bring the war home to Russia like nothing else.
In the air, Ukraine has in many ways secured the west of the country. There hasn’t been a Russian strike against any of Ukraine’s air bases in a long while. The overall air defence situation in central Ukraine is now at its peak and still improving. Only Israel has a better air defence system.
Would there be a downside for Ukraine rejecting an American brokered peace? 47 would be deeply unhappy and slightly humiliated in his own mind – and he would react accordingly, bullying the country into signing by cutting off aid. Yet even then it still would not be enough to make the Ukrainians sign a bad deal. The Russians would be faced with continuation – which they don’t want, and would no doubt use every propaganda tool at their disposal to blame Ukraine. Europe would stand up and stay with Ukraine. It would not this time, turn its back and ignore it.
That very fact is Ukraine’s ace card, because in the end the Europeans have this war on their borders, they have put their money and material in to defending Ukraine and barely broken a sweat doing it if truth be told. Supporting it is just as much about principles and ideals as it is military practicality. If Europe is to stand up for itself what better reason to do so?
There may also be merit in Ukraine walking out of peace talks if it feels their interests are under threat. If it does so, with good explanation, and with EU backing, and refuse to rejoin without EU representation – which the other two will initially reject – eventually they’ll come around. Russia will need the talks to succeed because its desperate to buy time, 47 wants it to get a Nobel Peace Prize and the wider effort to create this three pole power system that separates China and Russia, neither of them have Ukraine’s interest at heart. Only the Europeans do.
Together Ukraine and Europe don’t have to play second fiddle to anyone. Russia and the new US administration need to learn that lesson. Europe now has to prove it to them. Ukraine deserves a just peace, not one brokered to serve a convicted criminals peace prize quest and a war criminal’s imperialist ambitions.
The Analyst
militaryanalyst.bsky.social
The Military Analyst 
Exactly. As difficult as it is for the Ukrainians at the front, imagine the horror of the Russian infantry. The wounded sods on crutches hopping into the meat grinder knowing they are doomed, with a choice to desert only to face a blizzard of barrier bullets. They signed up for money. Their commanders fleece their money.
Trump and his henchmen have blindly marched into this mess now. This is not a replay of the DOHA negotiations with the Taliban without any Kazai representation. It’s vastly different.
The US has not contributed 60 or 70 $billion. It provided a significant amount of ammunition and weapons that were almost up for disposal at greater cost than cost of donation. They also provided some valuable defence weapons – HIMARS and Patriot being the current systems, along with some others. Most were decommissioned items, surplus to current needs – albeit highly effective for Ukraine.
It has occurred to me, and I’m sure others, that Trump is eminently capable of a back-flip mid-negotiation, denying that the deal he offered was ever on the table as anything more than a vague possibility. Putin needs a deal where he is seen to “win”, and he would look very weak if Trump flips on him.
Meanwhile the battlefield continues, and the strain on Russia is growing ever more apparent. This war will be determined economically and politically. On both counts, Ukraine is better placed than Russia – and especially Putin.
Despite appearances, Trump meeting Putin represents big risk for both of them. Trump’s previous meetings with Kim and Putin have been judged by many as losses for him.
It isn’t over until it’s over. I see a great horror descending on the Russian Empire, and difficult time for Ukraine, but with a bright future to come. The US will recover from it’s current debacle, but it’s a long way off.
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I agree with you. Long term I believe we’re actually on the cusp of a revived European political position – Katja Kallas leading it too. Ukraine & Europe is a serious menace to Russian ambitions. The US must do what it needs to do until the scourge of 47 is done with.
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Thank you, very promising. On a different note, has Russia increased the amount of tank production as there seems to be more on the front and getting destroyed?
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Russia has lost ~6-7 times its annual production capacity (~500 new tanks/annum) for new tanks each year since the full invasion. It made up the shortfall from its vast soviet era stocks. These require refurbishment, but it’s much less work that building new. In 2023 UAF estimated the Russians produced 2100 refurbs and ~200 new tanks, IIRC. The stocks are finite, and the ones they pull out now are older, and require much more work to refurbish.
They still have a lot of tanks available. Covert Cabal has regularly reviewed the satellite images of depleted stocks. They’re getting down to the junk stage. They also have barrel wear problems and fuel shortages from time to time. Tanks are heavy and use a lot of fuel, and when Ukraine sets fire to the fuel storage, they can’t use MBTs.
The same issue will apply to APVs. They’re running out – but they won’t run out entirely, they’ll simply use them more and more sparingly.
They’ll run out of money and popular support well before they run out of armour. They’re having problems with artillery though, since UAF began prioritising artillery for drone strikes.
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Thank you for your response though it differs from the analyst. He is saying Russia is producing in the vicinity of 1500 90 series MBT. I understand exact figures are not available.
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Actually manufacturing new T-90’s is my figure – and the UK MoD thinks it’s that. Another 500 are refurbished but there’s very few left now to work on and they’re very old types.
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It’s estimated they produce around 1,500 T-90 variants a year but they often lack air con and electro-optical sights due to sanctions.
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More like 500-600 and even then most of that # are just refurbished Soviet stock. Satellite imagery is a wonderful thing.
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