THE NOT SO ROCKY ROAD AHEAD FOR UKRAINE

The last few weeks have been bad for Ukraine and this week isn’t getting any better, so it would seem.

The United States seems set on a course where they want peace at any price – and the Russians have recognised this and are now adding daily to the pressure to have the US acquiesce to their demands before they will even talk.

Dmitri Peskov, Putin’s mouthpiece, has been laying down the requirements for Russia to talk. Amongst the requirements are:

A suspension of military aid to Ukraine.

A suspension of providing intelligence, especially targeting data to Ukraine.

And today, reiterating that the next step is the lifting of sanctions on Russia.

You can see where this is going. Rather than turn around to the Russians and so, no, if you don’t come to the table we’re going to make sanctions worse, this administration seems set on simply giving the Russians what they want and trusting they won’t come up with another demand. Its pathetically childish.

This tells us two things. Firstly 47’s desire to end the war is going to be entirely at Ukraine’s expense, and secondly that the US no longer has the slightest strategic interest in the future of Ukraine beyond a mineral deal that Zelensky took to Washington before being lambasted and thrown out of the White House for insufficient groveling. This according to 47, is no longer good enough. He, as the so called ‘deal maker’, having put Ukraine in an arms supply problem, and cut off its intel sources, as well as having Zelensky stroke the bloated ego of the pompous regime it sadly needs so badly, has decided he must now extract more concessions because, as he would put it, he has all the cards, and Ukraine has none.

There’s only one problem with this approach. Having already dealt the blow of cutting off arms and intel, Ukraine has less to lose than it did. Why should it just roll over on the minerals deal and grant even more concessions? The Russians are still pressing for sanctions to be lifted.

However the Russian economy can’t right now handle a flood of sanctions lifting, its so skewed to war production that its unable to absorb any sharp change without serious problems with inflation and an aggressive demand spike it can’t manage. That can in itself be catastrophically bad news – and short lived – with long term issues.

It’s the cash the Russians want, the ability sell oil and fund the war, sanctions on everything else won’t matter. But even if they do fund the war it doesn’t alleviate the manpower issues, solve the labour market and reduce inflationary pressure. You have to be careful what you wish for, you might get it.

Whatever happens, Russia is trying to push its luck on demand making and so far the Americans have given in. They just want shot of this war and the distraction its causing them – and they don’t care if the Ukrainian people pay the price.

So how long can Ukraine last? Their own estimates are they can keep going indefinitely but they will have to make stark choices at times they may not otherwise have had to. Europe is now producing a sizable amount of ammunition in conjunction with the Czech initiative, it seems to be meeting Ukraine’s artillery needs. The areas of concern are smaller arms ammunition, shells for the Bradley IFV, and parts for it because its played a vital role in this war. Indeed parts and repairs are going to be an increasing problem.

Yet the Ukrainians are now over a year on from the last time they faced a lack of US aid, they’re producing far more ammo domestically and so are the Europeans. The drone production chain is at peak efficiency and vital for Ukrainian operations. Its far better than it was over a year ago.

Does the targeting information from the US make so much difference now? It may have a downside in terms of locating strategic mobile targets such as a move of command posts – that uses a mix of optical intel, SIGINT, and the ability to correlate that information to show its viable through the US SENTINEL system. That they may struggle with it. But when it comes to obtaining visual intel on static systems and facilities, let alone target them, that’s almost public level knowledge these days. Refineries don’t move, for instance, nor do pumping stations and airfields. It’s time-urgent problems that will be missing – but other allies aren’t entirely incapable.

An example of what might be bad is that Ukraine will struggle to know if ships have left port on a missile launching mission, or if Russian bombers have taken off to launch missiles. Getting early warning of an Oreshnik or Iskander attack which almost certainly comes from the US early warning system, will no longer be available. They just won’t know until it hits the target.

In weaponry terms, the F-16’s may be difficult to maintain – unless the Europeans finance the required aid and the US will let them supply it. Pilot training may cease. Patriot missiles will be harder to come by. All of these air defences that protect civilians, all of that has been put on the line, by 47 and his unthinking administration who just don’t care enough to make exceptions. Ukrainians must die for America to bask in Putin’s attention. It really is that simple.

The big issue for Ukraine is long term attack planning and which targets to hit. For example that smashed up some Crimean air fields the other evening because a lot of aircraft had reappeared there. They won’t know that to make that kind of move with the Intel flow. They won’t be able to see the minutiae of Russian behind the lines movements unless they have drones to do the job.

None of this is insurmountable with European support over time, but it complicates the daily lives of everyone in Ukraine – from the frontlines to the home front.

Even Marine Le Pen, the likely next French president and right winger whose party has in the past been financed from Moscow, a matter of public knowledge, has described the American actions as unnecessarily harsh and unfair. Quite a number of European right wingers and commentators have echoed that sentiment. In the UK Nigel Farage, one of 47’s vocal glove puppets, has found himself and his party under fire for supporting 47 too much, several recent interviews have gone horribly wrong and they look out of touch. Much of Europe is on Ukraine’s side at this point, more than ever before.

Ukraine is not alone, circumstances have changed, it’s harsh but it’s not the end of the world. It’s just a pity as it comes at a monetary when Ukraine is in effect mounting a counter offensive very successfully at Toretsk and another lesser one so far south of Pokrovsk. It won’t stop either of these campaigns, but so much more might have been achieved with the certainty of American aid.

Yet Ukraine knew that once the scheduled aid was delivered there would be no more. The Republicans haven’t even managed to set a budget for 2024/25 let alone 2025/26. The Pentagon is loosing $17 billion just in over run payments because it doesn’t have a budget passed.

So do not despair, what was coming from America isn’t that vast in quantity terms, most if it had been delivered and records show the amount crossing the Atlantic had dropped a good amount in the past few weeks anyway.

It’s the intelligence sharing that’s the biggest headache. 47 has said that aid will not resume until Russia and Ukraine have a date to meet. By saying that it immediately puts Russia into a position where it has even less of of need to set a date. The naivety of the 47 administration is beyond words.

Ukraine is not alone. We are with you in Europe and in Canada and many other nations around the world.

The Analyst

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