TOTAL FAILURE: THE ART OF NO DEAL

Two hours of telephone call, preceded by hours of prior negotiations and what did Trump get for his trouble? Even his own TruthSocial post sounded disappointed and toned down while spinning the wheels of this failure as hard as they would go.

It was an unmitigated failure. All Putin agreed to was a hyper-focused arrangement not to hit Ukraine’s power grid in exchange for them not hitting Russian refineries and oil infrastructure – a request that makes it very clear how effective Ukraine’s campaign has been.

A lot of words came out but none of it was concrete or binding. It was all about extending the time available for Russia to make the most of it.

Even if we just look at the no-energy infrastructure deal, Ukraine’s is so badly damaged there’s almost nothing left to hit that wouldn’t mean another catastrophic attack on a dam or a nuclear reactor, likely to increase pressure on Russia rather than be fatal for Ukraine, which is in the process of redesigning and rebuilding its power distribution system on a totally decentralised model so that this disruption can’t happen in the same way again. Expect even more radical changes when peace eventually comes.

Russia on the other hand has heard only on the eve of the phone call, that Ukraine was about to commence deployment of a 3,000km range attack drone – no coincidence that Zelensky made that announcement when he did. It was primed to encourage Russia towards an aerial ceasefire but it wasn’t enough to get past the energy infrastructure issue. That night Russian Geran-2 drones hit a hospital in Sumy. Russia gets some light relief on the surface, but it goes much deeper. Trump’s failure to get anywhere for what he’s already handed over to Russia is simply staggering in its ineptitude. It is, in all frankness so appallingly poor in terms negotiation tactics and strategy, that you could be forgive for thinking Trump couldn’t negotiate his way out of wet paper bag.

This is what Putin has gained so far, and when you read the list just remember how close we were getting to tipping the Russian economy over and into the abyss.

1. An agreement to allow American hedge funds to invest in Russian government bonds. Putin authorized this instantly. America is about to invest-finance the war against its ‘ally’.
2. The rouble has increased in value by almost 40% in a few short weeks.
3. Continued advancements in the restoration of normal diplomatic relations between Russia and the United States. This is a big win for Moscow, they consider this critical.
4. The US is closing down all of its multi-media outlets such as Voice of America and others that promote truthful news, democratic principles and the ethos of the free world. Russian commentators like Olga Skabbeva were almost doing cart wheels of glee over this. They spend billions on Sputnik and Russia Today to get their insidious lies spread around the world and the VOM was one of their biggest challenges. It’s all but dead. Europe is looking at boosting Radio Free Europe and its media outlets to try and compensate but the US was a global operation and the best at what it did. It’s a disastrous move by Trump who seems oblivious to its value.
5. The US has withdrawn from maintaining or assisting investigations into Russian war crimes. This speaks volumes. It tells you they don’t want any part of blaming Russia for anything, feeding in to the background narrative that Ukraine was as much to blame for the war as Russia .
6. Refusing to use the words relating to ‘aggression’ when it comes to Russian behavior towards Ukraine. Its a re-writing of history, a sickening breakdown in American acceptance of what is right and wrong.
7. The US is accepting that it thinks Ukraine should cede ground to Russia – and the US is widely expected to accept Russian sovereignty over Crimea as legal.
8. The bizarre agreement to have American and Russian ice hockey teams play in others leagues. I can’t imagine where this even came from but how, why and well, I mean again, just how did this ever come up as a point in these discussions?

This is so far everything Russia has been given and it’s going to get worse. They’re demanding full surrender of Odessa, Mikolyaev, Kherson, Zaporhizia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, removing Ukraine’s coast and giving Russia its dreamed of ‘Novorossiya’. Meanwhile Ukraine is to have no weapons at all shipped to it with Russian inspectors at the border crossings, abandon rearming, reduce its army, stop mobilizing men. That’s just for starters. You can imagine the rest.

This is what Russia wants because so far Trump hasn’t managed to give it enough wins.

I cannot understand for the life of me what has happened to Marco Rubio’s brain, let alone his conscience. He would have screamed blue murder if Biden had been doing all of this. Where is the upset in Congress? Because I know there are people there for whom this is agony to watch and yet they’re letting it and much else besides happen as they sit and do nothing.

President Zelensky is no fool. He will tell Trump in today’s call Russia just wants to drag things out and for once Trump may believe him. The tone of Trump’s resignation to failed progress yesterday, despite the spin, may make him feel he needs to toughen up against Putin despite the love-in. But haven given him all but the kitchen sink, what cards does Trump have now? Nothing but one: a new weapons package for Ukraine due to lack of progress towards a deal.

Zelensky is doing an excellent job of keeping Trump on side. At the same time he’s touring Finland and the Baltics on a thank you tour for their support because its not just what they have already given, its what they plan to give and its substantial.

Ignoring Europe has been Putin’s and Trumps biggest mistake. They may think this is the old world of the 1800-1900’s where big powers just carve stuff up regardless of the locals. Not so fast, I’d say. You might be talking past us, and behind us, but we’re carving out our own way forwards and neither of you are going to like it.

Europe is fast coming to the conclusion that a Europe+ defence deal, including the UK and Canada & Norway, is only viable with one extra member – Ukraine. Only Ukraine has the capabilities Europe is looking to develop for itself. There is no Europe without Ukraine now.

That fact is the biggest and most important Trump and Putin are failing to recognize. If Europe stands behind Ukraine then Ukraine is not lost and never will be.

The old adage that ‘if you’re not at the table you’re on the table’ can work two ways. Because Europe and Ukraine are having their own conversation neither of the other two are party to. They have their own table and guess who’s not invited to diner?

Its all very well Trump and Putin thinking they can make arrangements on their own, but the reality will be whatever Ukraine agrees to, backed up with an increasingly productive European weapons industry more than capable of keeping Ukraine in the game, at a percentage of GDP well below the vast amount Russia is nearly crippling itself spending.

We’ll see who has the last laugh. It won’t be Trump, and it won’t be Putin, not in the end. The Old World may be dead, but after years in the doldrums Europe is back, its awake, its ready to put its money where its mouth is and rearmament for itself and supporting Ukraine is its top priority. Forget us at your peril.

The Analyst

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