Russia isn’t making sense at the moment, and there is good reason for it. On the one hand they want peace and at the minimum a ceasefire, because they need it. There’s one faction pushing for the relief it might bring. A chance to catch their breath and stabilize the economy and restructure and re-form the military so they can start dealing with the final conflict against Ukraine at a later date. There’s a feeling amongst them that if they don’t get this the economy will implode. Then any chance of taking Ukraine will be gone forever.
On the other hand, the argument for Russia to carry on is overwhelmingly based on the idea that ‘if not now, when?’ This is the prevailing current policy, that for Russia they have until the end of 2026 to finish this war in victory. Because if they don’t bring it to an end by then, on their terms, they have an inherent belief that not only will they never conquer Ukraine, they will have reached a point economically and militarily where they cannot remain militarily competitive with Europe, the United States, or China. That will mean Russia is technologically and military behind in a race that its already struggling to keep up with.
The war is sapping so much resource from the Russian economy, the military-industrial complex, the scientific and research element is focused on the needs of now, not tomorrow and certainly not the day after that. Everything is being sacrificed for the opportunity to win now. The price if it isn’t successful, is they may be years behind technologically and industrially, producing the weapons of this war and previous ones rather than those of tomorrow.
They already know the Ukrainians are advancing on the drone front far faster than they are – largely with British and European help. Advanced combinations of western technology and Ukrainian know-how has rapidly advanced their Electronic Warfare capabilities. The Ukrainian F-16 force has finally reached critical mass and is being used on the battlefield, with unnerving precision. Russia has few answers to these changes. Nor does it have answers to new Ukrainian tactics undermining its key frontline positions. The pressure of time is upon them, they need more.
The Ukrainians have already identified Russia is planning a spring offensive into the Kharkiv region. Recon has identified sizable manpower concentrations, President Zelensky has made it clear they have identified the likely axis of attack and have informed their allies of what they might be facing in the spring.
Meanwhile the Americans with their political circus and incompetence in negotiating with the Russians, who run rings around them, have been unable to secure any real deal, because Russia persistently finds ways around actually agreeing to anything even while appearing to have done so. The Americans seemed to be looking for a simple win in little time, thinking they could cajole Ukraine and appease Russia into giving them something for the huge giveaways they’ve already handed over. It’s been a complete disaster.
Meanwhile the Americans are trying to get Ukraine to hand over their resources and power plants just to pay for past aid, a process which will take up Ukrainian diplomatic time making sure it doesn’t happen. What have they to gain? The intelligence feed aspect is quickly being improved with the help of France and other Europeans, the military aid that was promised is now almost exhausted from America as the last installments are delivered – and I think we all know there won’t be any more.
Yet none of that has put the Ukrainians off, and while 79% are in favor of a ceasefire, 80% have no desire to surrender to Russia under any circumstances. Their view of America is also changing rapidly.
The Russians know this but how they interpret it – how Putin accepts the information – is based only on his concept of how this can play out. Nobody likes to deliver bad news to a despot. There are dozens of examples of how leaders in such positions can be manipulated and controlled by their gate keepers. Absolute power is very isolating. Especially as Putin is operating in the one man rule old style of dictatorship format.
Putin’s other mistake is allowing himself to be deluded into thinking that only the US can deliver him any type of deal with Ukraine that they can accept, when Putin vacillates over any deal, trying to see how much he can get Trump to give him for nothing. The two of them are busy trying to stitch up Ukraine and Europe+ without seeming to understand that they know its happening to them and are already working on dealing with a world where the war carries on and America is gone.
This belief Putin has in the Trump negotiators – that they can produce a result, is increased by the speed at which the Americans want to move. They’re so determined to get it done they’ve got no real cards left to play, and Putin is determined to let the American need for urgency cost them the maximum he can extract. Yet even if he does, because he knows the side prepared to wait a negotiation out is the side that gains the most, it will likely be nothing more than the paper its written on.
He thinks he has sufficient clout to demand the Oblasts he doesn’t even occupy. He isn’t getting them. He’s raped Trump and his negotiators and stolen their wallets and clothes and left them standing looking like the idiots they are. He hasn’t yet acclimatized to the reality of Europe+ and its determination not to give in. The fact that Ukraine knows it and is working with it – regardless of Russia or America tells you all you need to know. Putin hasn’t seen how drastic a change has occurred. Because if he had he’d be making different decisions.
Putin is making a lot of mistakes, his strategic vision long ago deserted him. His energy strategy failed miserably to materialise any long term strategic advantage over Europe – it inflicted pain, yes, but it was hardly the disaster predicted or planned for.
His three day invasion is now three years and a month old. He lost more ground in 2022 than he has since gained. Putin understands little or nothing of warfare and has never shown the slightest interest in the realities. His generals (and I have long been convinced of this) have largely sheltered him from the lesser facts – why would they not? They have nothing to gain by making it less opaque.
As long as the frontline keeps showing some advance, that some progress is being made somewhere, then Putin doesn’t push back. I don’t believe he’s involved in anything but the biggest decisions.
Russia’s aims for 2025-26 are to capture an oblast capital. They don’t control any of the ones they claim. That means retaking Kherson – that seems unlikely given its position and lack of bridges. Zaporhizia is high on the list, but the biggest prize is Kharkiv. Dnipro seems less likely. Yet the distance to any of them is as much land as they have already taken in the past two years of relentless slog. Taking a major city like that when they’ve been incapable of getting to Pokrovsk so far, less than a fifth the size of Kharkiv, makes that seem even less viable.
Given that they seem to have fewer resources to be able to carry out another endless offensive like 24/25 and Ukraine is getting better and better at what it does, the Steel Porcupine is just as strong now if not more so, how does Putin think he can win?
Yet Putin still throws in new negotiating points almost every day. Yesterday and today it’s been anything to get rid of Zelensky, including a ‘caretaker’ government that might be more inclined to give in. It’s never going to happen.
Meanwhile the Americans produced a new draft of minerals and energy deal that would mean almost complete colonial slavery for Ukraine with little or no rights on their side, and every advantage for the Americans. It’s a joke, no self respecting leader would countenance such a deal, it’s a scam. Ukraine will have to make sure nothing comes of it.
Yet this American angle, with Putin’s, is all a delusion. Putin thinks it will go his way, but Trump has ensured, through his own actions, that European powers and Ukraine are increasingly willing to stand alone. The more they hear from both sides the more they seem resolved to stand with Ukraine until Russia breaks, because we all know sooner or later it will. Putin and Trump are still arguing about the ferry ticket while they haven’t noticed the Europeans have already sailed away. Both of them are underestimating our resilience and certainly that of Ukraine’s.
What Russia thinks about its own position is unrealistic. Trumps view of Ukraine and Europe is distorted by his past experience with them, his own attitude and actions has changed things more than the Americans seem to appreciate.
My conclusion is that Europe+ with Ukraine is on a totally different boat to America and Russia. They’re going to turn around and realize that while they’re busy trying to out do the other, Putin in extracting the max from Trump while he panders to every need Putin expresses, its all irrelevant. Pointless. Ukraine knows where its better off and so does Europe+. No Russo-American brokered deal is ending this war, and both of them need to face that reality. It’s going to be hard for them to deal with. Ukraine treads a fine line with Trump, but they know the break is coming, we all do, we just have to drag it out a bit longer.
As for Putin? His mistakes have become a snowball of arrogant mismanagement. He’s in over his head but thinks he’s doing alright. He just doesn’t see that it’s all too late and he needs to get out of the war now, not later. Every day he leaves it is one day less to correct the steering on the Russian economy. Its military is about to embark on its last resort battle. It isn’t going to win. And when it doesn’t, watch the wheels come off that machine once and for all. Ultimately Russia is going to lose.
The Analyst
militaryanalyst.bsky.social
PS
As an aside, sometimes small things give you a hint at greater generalities. The Ukrainians have been supplied a huge number of the old M-113 APC. It may be old but there’s a lot to be said for its basic utilitarian approach, a box on tracks with enough armor to protect its troops. Its simplicity like this that we need to be re-examining as we re-arm. Easy to build and easy to repair. So much so that Ukraine is apparently, under its own steam, without outside help, able to replace all parts and make repairs as needed. They’ve simply copied them and make them to order. Needs must. We should all be taking note of such developments and learn from them. Long term wars require longer term solutions.
The Military Analyst 
Informative read. I was thrilled with your analysis about Russia for I have been thinking this along the same lines as you. Despite the destruction putin has visited upon Ukraine today, this piece gives me hope.
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As always, Excellent analysis, TA. Trump deludes himself that he “holds all the cards”, but more and more, he’s playing himself – and the US – out of the game. That requires a special kind of ineptitude.
Putin loaded his hand with “Trump cards”, in the blind hope that he could “ride the tiger” to victory (of sorts), and save Russia economically via a new US alliance, just as he tried to “ride the dragon” with Xi. It only shows that he’s snookered himself.
Unfortunately, the war is far from over. Hopefully, European support will fill the gaps enough for Ukraine to grind Russia down.
Putin has highlighted two areas of critical Russian need in the “negotiations” – energy (oil) infrastructure and Black Sea trading routes. He’s shown his hand, and his greatest economic vulnerability. Ukraine should destroy both. It has the means available, if not the quantity.
The best outcome for everybody – including Russia – is the comprehensive defeat of Russia. That is what the Europeans need to plan for Ukraine to achieve – and back them properly.
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I think Ukraine is playing with Trump as much as Putin is. When Gazprom falls Russia and Putin will be beside the window.
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Ukraine is indeed playing Trump.
They need to keep up the appearances and go through the moves to, at least, keep the USA from directly aiding Russia.
But the messaging from Kyiv is increasingly more critical. And IMO this is the result of the assurances given by Europe+
I also think to have felt that it is slowly sinking in to the USA that a few of the cards that they wanted to play aren’t actually in their possession: They neither have the power to remove sanctions, nor to return the frozen assets and much less to cut aid.
They don’t even have the ability to press Ukraine again with the removal of intelligence. Europe+ many not have the sheer amount of sources the USA has (had?), but we do have enough and Ukraine itself has shown to be rather good at this game (Budanov FTW!) .
The big question is what the USA is going to do now. I think they too will be considering the peace process a waste of time and try dragging on just for the show, if not completely abandoning it. I do not see them increasing aid to Ukraine any time soon. But they will surely try to spin it as a win claiming that they have convinced Europe to get our own shit together. And they would partly be right. Only partly, because the question of the European dependence on US defense is in no small part their own fault:
If anybody has followed the acquisition process of the F35 they would be aware of the heavy lobbying from the USA and the immense weight of the soft power that is now being just rubbished.
We must also consider all the factors. And just as Russia is rushing full speed towards an economic cliff, so is the USA. Which will have foreseeable consequences on the world’s economy, specially the Russian. But it will also mean that the USA may soon not be in a position to broker anything, drowning in the economic disaster they have manufactured all by themselves.
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hello, it’s been a long time since I’ve wanted to comment, at last it works. First I want to thank you much for the professional and well informed analysis, you earn me a lot of time since I don’t need to balance both sides estimate and read between the lines! To add to Putin challenge is the fact that either he stops the war now, without any possibility to get the industry back into civilian market, expect a wild and brutal collapse, and cherry on top, 1.5M people traumatized, brain washed into sadistic rapist and murderer, and probably very angry, half toward the brutal officers half toward Putin to cut them from their position of power, and a ludicrous salary if you compare with the average wages prewar. I bet he won’t even try, he must continue to focus his zombies toward fresh meet. But the winning path for him has been long gone. He’s novarossia dream will result in a bloody civil deflagration
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Indeed. Putin is facing a real dilemma. It’s an almost literal example of the figure of speech of “holding a tiger by the tail”.
He has already commented that he fears hundreds of thousands of veterans returning from the front with no job, no salary and no prospect of a future. So, he must keep the war going. On the other hand, even he must know that he can’t go on indefinitely.
He may be trying to extract some, even minimal, concessions from the USA, to, at least, save face. But I do not think that neither he nor his aids have a clear idea yet about how to get out of the trouble they got themselves into.
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Another well considered view of where things are heading. Very thought provoking, and I hope you are right in how you see things going. It is good that Europe+ has stepped up. I pray that the resolve amongst it’s leaders stays firm, and that support for Ukraine doesn’t falter but becomes stronger. Europe + needs to see this through, not just for Ukraine, or even for Europe, but for any prospect of World Order to be restored.
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The world order as we knew it cannot come back, it’s an era now past. We have to be one of the poles in the new order rather than being subsumed by others.
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