RUSSIA’S NEXT WAR?

Are we being paranoid? Are we so obsessed with Russia and its aggression that we really think having by then exited one war, it will quickly start another? Would it really risk a confrontation with a NATO member? Why would it do so? How far would it go? Does it really think that NATO is an aggressive threat?

Along the long border with new NATO member Finland, Russia is building a new lateral rail line to supply a potential combat zone. In the rear, new covered bases for armored vehicles are being constructed. Clear preparations are being made for an extensive militarization of what is the longest NATO/Russia border that’s ever existed.

From a practical perspective its not unreasonable or even surprising that Russia might want to ready its own border; the question is why when Russia itself has shown that it knows NATO is only a defensive alliance – and defending itself from Russia as potential Enemy No.1, does it feel the need to make NATO want to make its own defence more effective?

The only answer is that yes, Russia is planning more wars. I believe it has placed itself in a position where its military – even in a post Ukraine war – is never going to be in a better position.

It will need to let many of its soldiers return home, but it will retain a core of experienced battle hardened drone operators, infantry and commanders. You can’t hold on to them forever – maybe five years before they loose their edge.

Putin’s desire to rebuild the old Russian empire coupled to the state of the now highly militarized economy – which is geared to war in a way that we all know cannot be changed without a catastrophic economic collapse, he’s locked himself into military expansionism as the only way to continue.

He thinks that if he gets Ukraine resolved into a temporary peace and restores relations with the US and gets sanctions lifted, he has a way out – and he can restructure the economy while retaining the same levels of weapons production. Sanctions relief is what he wants. Europe is disinclined to to do that, but it would only take the US restoring what it has sanctioned to give Putin the leeway he needs – and he will squeeze out from under the economic prison he’s currently in. The collapse that’s currently inevitable will be staved off, and he gets to carry on as is. It’s a win-win scenario for him.

It may seem selfish to say it, but the best way to get out of this war and Russia to lose it is for Ukraine to hold out another year to eighteen months – its slowly gaining the upper hand on the battlefield and I think some elements in Russia are equally slowly realizing that’s an increasing risk. But not enough of them to change anything. Russian arrogance can’t accept that possibility. The Russian economy though, cannot stand another 18 months of this pace without something giving out. That much I think they do know and accept.

So what kind of war does Russia face as being viable?

The answer is a test case war. It needs to find somewhere like the Baltic states because they’re small and globally unimportant places almost nobody outside of Europe knows even exist – that’s not an attempt to belittle the three Baltic states, but 99.9% of Americans won’t even know they exist. And in Putin’s judgment that matters, because if the US is still a reluctant member of NATO and yet its public have no motivation to defend one of these tiny states – who – and they will be told this – were Russian before they were independent – could have a braking effect on any American desire to trigger a full Article 5 response from them. The rest of Europe might think differently and the Article 5 provisions allow for each nation to only do what they feel like doing. America may even try to persuade its allies to do nothing. Of course that’s what Putin wants, that some do little or nothing and the rest can’t do enough to stop him. If he then succeeds for example, in seizing the strategically vital Suwalki Gap that joins Lithuania to Poland but would then connect Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave to Belarus (and in effect Russia), is anyone going to fight if everyone else is ambivalent?

It’s this type of test that Russia will try to manipulate into existence. And it only needs to break the NATO response to one of indifference or one that America won’t participate in to know it can get away with anything.

The reality of course is that might be how he thinks but it’s not the mood that’s prevalent in Europe right now. Failing to understand that fact would be a strategic fail on his part.

German’s BND intelligence service is adamant that Russia is holding back new equipment from the front in Ukraine for the future – they say Russia hasn’t deployed 300 T-90’s because it doesn’t want to waste them in Ukraine. Production of artillery barrels has risen 20% – but from a very low level.

Denmark’s military intelligence believes Russia can mount an attack on NATO within five years, most of the Baltic states would agree. But almost always this is based on the Russians being convinced NATO is weak and unwilling. Its up to us to convince the Russians buy buying the weapons to confront them, that will prevent it from happening. Its a brutal but expensive fact, that buying weapons at huge expense is the only way to deter a hostile power.

Russia is not a conventional power either, because its asymmetric war against NATO has been raging for two years. Attacks on military production sites from the UK to Czechia, from Berlin to Madrid, have already happened. Cyber attacks on banking and health systems, the relentless Russian campaign against the global internet cable network, electricity transmission under the sea, pipelines, it’s been evident for all to see. They’re hardly making an effort to hide it as their ships misbehave around all of Europe’s shores and beyond. Its involved everything from attempted assassinations, the burning down of key individuals homes, and planting an incendiary device on a DHL 757 cargo plane that caused it to crash. And it’s far from over. Russia has even targeted high profile pro-Ukrainian Telegram and YouTube commentators.

There is also Russia’s navy. The Black Sea Fleet may have been beaten up by the Ukrainians but the rest of it – especially the submarine arm – is a scary prospect to be involved in a war with. Only the UK and France have the long range nuclear SSN’s that can deal with the likes of the Yasen class for example, a mix of cruise missile equipped hunter-killers so quiet they often escape detection and are every bit a match for anything in the west.

Finland is more than aware that the new railways and railheads are aimed at them. It’s the St Petersburg military district that’s also being reinforced with new buildings and refurbished bases – so far largely unmanned. But the fact remains they’re getting ready. They’re forward planning. And if they know NATO isn’t going to attack them and they do, then it’s not a passive defence measure. It’s the preparation for offensive operations.

And yet again, we have to remember that the only defence against Russia is hard military power and the willingness to use it. It’s the only thing that deters them.

Further west, the UK has been harassed relentlessly by Russian spy ships and cable hunters. Russia regards Britain as the primary organizer of everything Europe does to oppose it. There are long standing historical reasons for this that go back 200 years.

The UK modeled the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022, as though it was happening to the UK. The war-game was a disaster. The UK was largely rendered useless. Partly that’s its own stupid fault. It only has two fighter bases left out of so many options it’s ludicrous. It doesn’t use hardened hangers anymore either. It has virtually no anti-missile or air defence other than fighters.

They say they have learnt a lesson from it and understand that fighter dispersement, as soon as tensions develop, should be carried out urgently, that those fighters would have to be used to break up a cruise missile attack, that (and this is ludicrous because six are never available, you’d be lucky if there were three), RN destroyers would have to employed in the North Sea to bring down an attack. That can only happen if they’re not being used defending the carriers wherever they might be.

The UK is living in a fantasy in regards to its air defences and it needs to recognize that in the soon to be published Defence Review. Only by fixing such clear deficiencies will Russia learn that one of its principle adversaries isn’t so easy to neutralize.

Strength and willingness are the answers to Russian aggression being stopped before it starts. Take away their options, remove their advantages, counter every move with clarity of purpose and determination. That will stop them because if they don’t think they can win, they won’t try. It’s simple enough. Now let’s get on with the job.

The Analyst

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