So far in this war, Ukraine has upturned the way war is carried out twice. Its drone warfare in the Black Sea won it sea control of that theater and largely rendered the surface fleet of the Russian Federation useless. Without a single ship of their own.
This time, in what has to be one of the most daring military-intelligence-technology driven operations mounted in decades, they have upturned far more.
On November 22nd 2023 President Zelensky authorized one of the most daring missions Ukraine has carried out. On November 17-18 2023 Sumy had been attacked by missiles and drones killing some two dozen people, and the next day hit a dormitory killing 12 in the same city. The attacking missiles were launched by Tu-95 strategic bombers.
it was following this that Ukraine started to plan a way of shutting down the source of these attacks, not least because they were also attacking vital electric power grid installations. Operation Spiderweb was born.
On June 2nd 2025 a stunning blow was achieved against the very Tu-95 & Tu-22M3 bombers (as well as at least one A-50 Beriev AEW&C and some Il-76 Candid transports and at least 1 Tu-160 bomber), that launched the cruise missiles responsible. Around 31-40 aircraft were destroyed, by most accounts some 33% of Russias strategic aviation force.
The Tu-95’s are completely irreplaceable. They were last built in the early 1960’s with a small number built in the early 1990’s from available parts. The majority in service are constantly updated, but the damage we saw – streamed live – is not something they come back from. Likewise the Tu-22M3 (or Tu-26 Backfire in NATO parlance) is again long out of production, the newest versions date to the late 1980’s. The Tu-160 was back in production but its factory was hit by drones in 2023. Even so they were only producing about 1 a year. The Beriev A-50 is irreplaceable and Russia has now lost three of four known to have been operational.
So those are the losses. How did they do it?
A number of standard containers were modified to carry drones in the bottom of the container. The roof of the container appears to have been designed to pop off on command as some video shows them laying some distance from the launch truck. Drones can then be seen launching at roughly 40 second intervals out of the roof.
The drivers appear not to have known anything and were simply chartered to carry the goods to a certain position – presumably to expect a roadside transfer. One was standing in shock videoing the drones launching out of the containers. In another location locals realized what was happening and tried to do something but the container exploded after most of the drones had gone.
How they got the drones into Russia may one day be revealed, quite possibly through the vast porous central Asian borders where back roads are barely if ever monitored.
Beyond the how and the why of course is the implication for what it means in the longer term.
In 1941 a daring British raid using outdated biplanes sank half of the Italian Navy at anchor in a highly defended base. Battleships and cruisers sat half submerged on the bottom of Taranto naval base. It was the first time anyone had ever achieved such a thing and in doing so changed the fortunes of the war in the Mediterranean. It inspired Admiral Yamamoto so much he used the concept to attack Pearl Harbor. I know I have used this moment to make a point before, but again, this is just such a moment.
Small lightweight aircraft that cost next to nothing destroyed ships that cost thousands of times their own. Lightweight drones just destroyed several billion dollars worth of Russia’s strategic Air Force.
It’s not just what they destroyed, it’s where. Russia has eleven time zones, it’s the largest single country on the planet by a wide margin. The air bases attacked included those on the far Northern Fleet base at Olenya on the Kola Peninsula near Murmansk, two near Moscow at Ryazan and Ivanovo, another at Irkutsk close to Lake Baikal on the border with Mongolia, and a less successful attack on the base in Amur in the far east of Russia near China.
The simple fact that bases so far apart were overwhelmed by a simultaneous coordinated attack from inside Russia is one thing. To take video of the attacks and live stream it around the world to prove it was no joke, operate first person view drones from thousands of miles away, presumably using a service like Starlink, completely believable with today’s tech but, completely unexpected.
There was no defence. The bases were hit, vast palls of smoke videoed by Russians and posted on the internet from all over Russia as their Strategic Air Force burned.
I’ll be honest and say I had a tear in my eye when I saw it. Such daring, such audacity, such brilliance. Ukraine has done something that will make every Russian military leader wonder what the hell might happen next week. This was a finger up the nose of Putin so blatantly visible it shows him as weak and more importantly impotent. There was nothing they could do to stop it. Billions in state security, secret police, public surveillance and they missed it. According to Zelensky they planned much of it inside an office next to a regional FSB building. Right under the nose of the enemy.
The success of the Ukrainian attacks is unquestionable. What we have to learn are the lessons and they are profound.
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE
Inspiration will have been given to many non-state actors and maybe even a few state actors. The Houthis will have watched what happened here and their eyes would have popped out on stalks. I can almost imagine them planning their own version right now, with the Iranians offering advice.
Just have a think about how many nations – the UK as a prime example – keeps most of its air assets in just three bases, only one primary fighter base and they don’t use hard shelters at all anymore. The main base could be attacked and half the RAF wiped out. An attack on Brize Norton would wipe out the RAF transport fleet. All over the US bomber bases and others are fairly open facilities – they have few defences – unjammable fiber optic drones in a swarm could do huge damage before anyone could stop them.
Even if the target wasn’t military, but a government building, airport etc, it’s a major inspiration to those who wish us ill. If anyone had thought about doing it and had considered it too difficult, they need not be dissuaded any more.
Even a nation state could achieve extraordinary first strike success with such an operation. Imagine Chinese containers – of which there are millions globally, imported into the US and a widespread multi-pronged drone strike launched from inside the country against every major military facility? You cannot say it’s impossible any more. Taranto again, proved it could be done. Pearl Harbor was vastly larger and infinitely more consequential. Sooner or later a larger and vastly more complex drone attack will come and be utterly unexpected.
The range and distance from our enemies has been an advantage. We expect an attack to come from the outside in, not from the inside out. Russia absolutely believed that distance offered protection, that is now no longer true. For anyone.
We all have to think differently about key military and political/command facilities and how we defend them. The game has changed. The warning is there for all to see. Ignore it at our peril.
The Analyst
MilitaryAnalyst.bsky.social
The Military Analyst 
Thank you TA.
The world is deafened by the messages of congratulations and gratitude coming from Trump and his bunch of fools. The destruction of Putin’s strategic bombers by Ukraine has done so much to protect all NATO members from Russian aggression, but all we hear is the sound of silence. Still it is stated Ukraine’s membership to NATO is not to be. All of NATO should hang their heads in shame.
Slava Ukraini!!
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It’s America and Hungary with Slovakia stopping them, not the rest of us.
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Very true, 3 members of NATO are blocking NATO membership for Ukraine. Or look at it another way 29 NATO members ARE NOT blocking Ukraine’s membership of NATO.!! How many of those 29 are speaking up for Ukraine? NATO is allowing Trump, Orban and Fico run the show. NATO should be able to suspend members when they are not acting in the interest of NATO’s security.
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Ukraine just changed the world as we know it. I hope the Russian generals now realise the war is unwinable and thier best hope is to depose PooTin.
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Inspirational and audacious indeed, and definitely changes the strategic calculus for future warfare.
The warehouse where the Ukrainians stored the drones and modified the containers was in Chelyabinsk; not far from the Kazakhstan border, and close to the regional FSB HQ! Hiding in plain sight! It’s S-SSE of Ekatarinaberg.
The containers apparently had wooden walls on a container base and frame, like a portable, modular, container accommodation unit…with a false, retractable roof. You could look inside the container, but there was nothing unusual to see. All legitimate… Genius!
Five cartage contractors collected the “containers”, each with instructions to drive to a location where they were to pull off the road in a truck stop area, when someone would meet them to guide them to the delivery place…The waiting areas were ~6 or 7 klms from a strategic airfield and within range of the Russian cell phone network – which the Ukrainian controllers used to control proceedings from there!!!
Meanwhile the Ukrainian Spec Ops guys made a quick exit once the containers were despatched, as the drone operators and UA operations command watched and prepared to spring the trap. The Russians “caught” the hapless truck drivers, at least one ended up apparently choked to death with a cable tie. Typical Russia: “we have to punish someone, and you were there!”
As for using the cell phone network. strike out EW, unless you permanently shut down the network…the drones could fly on visual anyway. They did it in daylight.
There’s apparently been confirmed evidence of an explosion in the arctic nuclear submarine port, with an active Russian nuclear submarine damaged. They tried to suppress this news too…awaiting further details. It’s unclear whether Ukraine was involved.
Who needs “cards” when you have drones and the intelligence to use them so cleverly?
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The pressure on Ruzzia is now huge
Now, every russian cargo truck becomes a potential threat. Every driver is suspect. As a result, russian authorities will be forced to:
– Divert resources to inspect and monitor domestic transport routes.
– Increase surveillance and internal security along tens of thousands of kilometers of highways.
– Slow down military and civilian logistics across the entire country.
– Mistrust their own citizens — especially private drivers and contractors — creating paranoia and bottlenecks.
This will drive up the cost of russian supply chains, strain already stretched infrastructure, and potentially cause internal friction. Ukraine didn’t just destroy aircraft — it weaponized uncertainty within the russian system.
c/p from Roman Sheremeta fb’s page
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Not to mention the economic shock in a moment when the economy is tanking.
It could be the straw that broke the camel’s back… well, more a tree trunk that a straw, but you get my point.
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Thanks for another great article. As you observe, the implications of this incredible attack are far-reaching. Congratulations to Ukraine for achieving such a fantastic result. It’s another David and Goliath event, and a humiliation for Putin.
Slava Ukraine!
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Good analysis. The lessons need to be articulated fully and rapidly be assimilated into the conversations, decision making processes and policy definitions of the MOD, Staff College, Met CTU and SouthBank.
Not only does this point to a requirement for a new paradigm in security of military and civilian infrastructure, but it also massively complicates personal protection of high-value personnel. The drone as a ultra-long range pinpoint accuracy weapon just came of age.
Just one significant attack is likely to shut down huge swathes of any target country. We are already seeing massive traffic jams across Russia as trucks are checked. As soon as an attack is launched from the back of a family car then it will get even worse.
Imagine what will happen when self-driving trucks prevail on our roads… getting them to stop for a roadside check will either require a complex technical solution agreed between the manufacturers and every government in the world (I wont hold my breath) or application of an anti-tank missile!
The Ukrainian attack totally shifts the needle. We need to make sure we understand this and adapt…rapidly!
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Imagine a delivery pickup truck, common on any russian airport, with 4 small drones unadvertised entering or close to any base and attacking the control tower… what a mess can do that. Even near to the Kremlin or at Putin’s caravan. Anything can be expected now.
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There is one scene I can’t get out of my head.
Zelenskyy, sitting in the White House being hounded by Trump and his minions. JD Vance, asking for thankfulness. That moron of MGT’s “boy”friend uttering some idiocy about suits. Zelenskyy, putting on his best poker face. We all felt ashamed by the bullies and pity for Zelenskyy having to endure all this to try to keep the US at his side.
We all remember the famous exchange about cards. You have no cards. I don’t play cards.
Now, with what we know, the scene has changed completely. While these amateur nincompoops were doing their clown show, the man who as the target of their clowning looked as if he was just trying to keep a straight face in the middle of the shitstorm. While this was a pure facade. Because during all that time, Ukraine was preparing two of the most daring operations warfare has ever seen. One of them so utterly bonkers that it could have been the plot for a cyberpunk novel. The second was the new attack on the Kerch Bridge, carried out by patiently placing 1000 kg of explosives on the pillars of the bridge.
Morale of the story: Don’t invite Zelenskyy to play poker.
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