END OF AN ERA: US NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY PRO RUSSIA, ANTI EUROPE

The push back in the US has already started against the National Security Strategy policy document.

Shock that Russia wasn’t even mentioned in the entire 33 pages as an adversary or threat, has raised the ire of several GOP senators. Russian abject approval of it has lifted eyebrows far and wide, the Russian press is full of praise, “TRUMP IS NO LONGER EUROPE’S DADDY” screamed one slightly bizarre Moscow headline, as nobody in Europe ever thought that in the first place.

One senator described the document as a ‘strategic mistake’.

Senators are furious that the Pentagon has removed troops from Romania without discussing it with Congress.

I’m hopefully raising your hopes that this whole policy document will be a storm in a teacup. Because that’s how desperate people are to wish it away. The reality is it’s a category 5 hurricane in the Mid-Atlantic and it’s heading for Europe.

Forget special relationships and democratic governments coming together to mutually defend each other. America has just about withdrawn from that whole concept as far as it can, without actually leaving NATO. It’s my absolute belief – and I am not alone, that if the administration could have done so, it would have. Congressional blocking action put in place ironically enough by then Senator Rubio has made that impossible. The current senate would never vote for it.

What the administration has in effect done, is remove the teeth from its commitments, ensuring the likelihood that in the event of an Article 5 moment, the US would decline participation.

I cannot explain how catastrophic that would be. It would actually be better if the US withdrew from the organisation all together.

They hold the military command and the control over the only tactical nuclear weapons. Their integration into the command and control network is so deep it cannot function without them. If they don’t come on board and even resist cooperation- the organisation is hamstrung from the get-go. It’s the most devastating possibility that the US could assist a Russian attack simply by doing nothing. The ultimate in Russian military intelligence success – not just splitting the US from NATO but the US passively undermining the whole organisation in a crisis.

None of this can be ignored as a possibility. In Europe this morning voices are already pointing out that Article 5 without American input becomes infinitely more complex, giving allies an opportunity to decline participation. Hungary would almost certainly do so anyway under Orban.

The US system gives the US president C-in-C powers, SACEUR obeys the chain of command from Washington. Trusted by allies to carry out a mission commanding their forces to protect their countries, any inaction would be fatal.

The new policy is backed up of course by Defense Secretary Hegseth who reiterated its position at the Reagan conference this past weekend.

Barring foreign powers from interfering in the Americas – North, Central and South, with a re-imagined 1823 Monroe Doctrine, coupled to an insistence on deterring conflict in the first island chain of the Pacific- i.e. Taiwan, is another major strand of the policy.

The old ‘pivot to Asia’ policy wasn’t even referenced.

What was truly extraordinary was the slamming of Europe as anti-democratic, because it largely opposes extreme right wing policies and parties and seeks to block them from power through coalitions, the regime in Washington doesn’t like that at all.

We risk losing our European civilization to excessive external integration and immigration, they say, almost saying but not quite, that we need to be white supremacists, right wing, anti-democratic, decline to have any liberal leanings and turn back the clock to some mythical utopia of ‘enlightened fascism’ for want of a better description. Only then will we be pure enough to be accepted by MAGAmerica.

Europe is now clearly in the American regime’s crosshairs. If we have liberal or coalition governments, we’re the enemy. Just like that.

Only populists like Farage and Le Pen, Fico and Orban (who is decidedly less popular that Trump might think), are welcome in this new Vance-Musk-Thiel Project 2025 world view.

Actively supporting these political parties is implicitly in the policy document. Changing Europe to mirror the US is their aim. They want to remove restrictions on Social Media companies for their perversion of free speech, misleading algorithms and basically being able to say what the hell you like be it true or false. They want better than equity for US businesses in Europe while offering little in return, because they think we already get enough. The difference between their no-merit companies who don’t sell anything we want to buy, and ours that sell them things they want more than anything else, is an irrelevance, because like all MAGA policy its based on America being the victim of its own apparent kindness. We’re the exploiters, they are innocent victims.

A more isolationist approach to world affairs is clearly marked out. It’s a sort of ‘this is ours, keep out’ document on the one hand, while on the other it’s devoted to forcing political change to the right everywhere else. Regardless of the human cost and the consequences economically. They are now willing to deal with any regime of any type, regardless of its domestic behavior or policies and not interfere in human rights issues or abuses.

The attitude towards Russia is one where they think Europe should just accept it’s impossible to support Ukraine to defeat Russia and acts as if a Russian victory is inevitable.

It seeks European connivance in accepting Russia and urges we just get on with dealing with them as if nothing has ever happened. They want Ukraine to accept their peace demands because it’s the quickest way of America’s regime making money and settling in to bashing the South American nations it doesn’t like – Venezuela & Cuba, and the military accepts it will need to reinforce its position in the Caribbean to make that happen.

So the question for us here in Europe is what do we do now?

We have to assume – and Mark Rutte will be horrified – is that NATO is doomed in its current format.

Re-alignment of the organisation as a Europe+ organisation with Canada and Iceland must come. America is now a Category A unreliable along with Hungary. We must assume it is not going to act even slightly in our interests and we must no longer act in theirs. It’s got to be over and done with.

Arguments over the possibility that there is sufficient institutional resilience, inside Congress and the administration of the federal government to protect the American people, and the Europeans from what this means long term, cannot be assumed. There will not be any kind of long term reliable bounce back post-MAGA/Trump/Vance.

Part of Project 2025 was the demolition of what was called the ‘deep state’ just to be certain it couldn’t do just this. That deep institutional structure has been largely eradicated. Deep State is on the one hand the professional career driven people whose entire life is spent in service. Those who understand foreign policy, policy of any kind, relationships, frameworks, how the very essence of government works at home and abroad. It is the institutional experience of decades and thousands of people. People versed in facts and figures and challenge falsehoods, who work within the law. To MAGA of course its anyone who opposes their world view, who doesn’t appreciate the value of ‘alternative facts’. They would rather ditch every last shred of that professionalism and knowledge than face honesty. That is where we are now.

The generals are largely disposed of or toeing the line hoping they never have to step in, the senior officials and officers in the various foreign and intelligence services? All gone. The institutional memory has been flushed. It’s now the brain worm infected equivalent of RFK Jr at the Health Department. No sense of responsibility or empathy exists there.

Worse still as soon as Trump, despite the redactions and alterations is revealed as Epstein’s best customer, as his mental acuity diminishes daily, the long awaited coup will come. It was always to be this way. I’ve believed it from the start.

Have you seen JD Vance anywhere lately taking the blame? Tarnished by any of Trump’s announcements or issues? No. Because he wants to be seen as clear of them, able to offer up stability and common sense right wing style, when the time comes. Just as they did with the hapless Gerald Ford in 1974, keeping him out of sight and sound as Nixon’s presidency went down the proverbial toilet.

Then in will step Vance – and this yearly published policy will become more defined and more aggressive and more anti-European. It already has his fingerprints all over it. Vance has always been the problem and we should be watchful. He has dark paymasters in Thiel & Musk who didn’t spend hundred of millions pushing him from nobody, into the senate and then the Vice-Presidency for nothing.

The worst of this is yet to come.

Europe needs to get itself together, NOW! If you thought that America was not now a Russian ally read the NSS. You will be brutally disabused of the notion.

The Analyst

militaryanalyst.bsky.social

Read the document yourself: (33 A4 Pages).