IRAN ON THE BRINK?

IN 1979 I stood in front of a class of my peers and argued why the Shah was better for Iran than what was about to engulf it, and that the leadership of the mullahs would be a disaster. Nobody agreed, but that did not surprise me. Within a year nobody disagreed.

The exit of the Monarchy, the death of the Shah from cancer he had long kept hidden soon after -although the Russian’s seemed to know about it at the time, they said nothing until late in the crisis and then only to the British Ambassador who did nothing with the information when he was told. It would have told us so much and his government could have taken a different path with his now exiled son, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.

The 1980’s saw a devastating war with Iraq, when Saddam invaded to take advantage of the regimes weakness. In the end millions died but nothing changed, neither side gained anything. Yet it caused deep and lasting damage to Iran which had no allies. The 1990’s saw a population boom, gross corruption that became endemic, and the start of a long focus on Iran expanding its power to both irritate the US and its ideological enemy – Israel. The quest for a nuclear weapon was to begin, and billions were spent not on improving the country or the lives of its people, who were now worse off they they had been in the early 1960’s before the Shah’s “White Revolution”.

That in itself seemed like a who other life. Gone were women and girls rights to vote, to be educated, to dress as they wished. Religious laws enforced by religious police left no room for interpretation. Male dominated religion and politics, were and are the norm. In those days an Iranian passport allowed you to travel anywhere. Not anymore.

The regimes almost obsessional fight with zionism and Israel generally was not something that previously existed. Israel and Iran had quite close ties under the Shah, mostly behind the scenes, but there was no hostility. The obsession came from the clerical leadership and the Republican Guard.

To understand Iran you have to understand its bizarre government. The Supreme Leader is the ultimate authority – above the President, but generally leaves the approved elected president to get on with running things day to day. There is a parliament, the Majis, made up of elected approved members. When I say approved that means the Mullahs have to agree if someone is suitable to stand – they tweak their candidates and what they might do based on their present whims.

However the civilian government doesn’t have immediate oversight over the Republican Guard – an organisation that’s above the Army, Air Force and Navy (under the President’s command) and reports only to the Supreme Leader. The Republican Guard is the epitome of corruption and is absolutely a state within a state. It controls industries, businesses, telecoms, the nuclear program, water supply and anything of any real value in Iran that makes money, has the Guard involved in it. It exists and operates with the blessing of the Supreme Leader, whom many regard it as controlling.

They have been responsible for the war against Israel, Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah and much of the civil war in Syria, where they supported the Assad regime and the Russians. Its the Guard that has driven Iran’s economy into the ground, lost in the war against Israel, expended huge fortunes in fruitless attempts at spreading its influence, and drove it into the arms of the Russians.

The guards incompetence and corruption led directly to the water shortages that are so severe in Tehran life is almost unbearable. The rate of inflation – now running somewhere between 42-66% depending on who you believe, and food inflation is largely seen as having sat around 70% this year – has now been mixed with a disastrous devaluation of the currency. In 1979 when the Shah fell there were 70 Rials to $1 US. By 2010 that rate had dropped alarmingly to 10,030 to $1. Ten years later it was between 200,000-300,000. It recovered over the early 2020’s to around 142,000 before plunging during 2025 to 1,350,000 to $1 now. It’s effectively valueless and its caused the very same shopkeepers who started the 1979 uprising to walk out. Tehran Grand Bazar closed down and the uprisings have spread quickly across the country.

Another issue is that the Supreme Leader hasn’t been see for days. He’s 86 and not in the best health. If something has happened to him a fight for the position amongst the mullahs right now would be a disaster – even more fuel to the fire of the protesters who won’t want to see him replaced by yet another dead hand of religious authoritarianism.

There have been deaths and these are something that in Iran the authorities shudder over because its not the death thats generally the immediate concern. In Iran 40 days after the death is the critical period, and they often spur major uprisings as the grief and annoyance fester for 40 days and pour out onto the streets. That’s one of the reasons the uprisings take on such a patchy up and down process.

Yet this uprising is different. It’s not about police brutality or the behavior of the Government enforcers primarily, although they are deeply resented. Nor about women’s rights and mistreatment, though it hasn’t been forgotten. It’s about fundamental living standards and the impossibility of finding the basics such as bread and water to live on. They know who to blame, and those being blamed are in the same boat. There has been reluctance on the President’s side to engage in brutal oppression because this time they think it will not be possible to keep it down. But the Guard and its civilian arm the Bahsigi enforcers on their motor bikes and willingness to beat the living daylights out of anyone for Allah – they are a brainwashed religious cult of thugs on a nice day – have barely restrained themselves . In some places they haven’t.

In the past years a multi-part documentary on the Shah was beamed into Iran and millions eventually watched it. They suddenly realized that while his regime was far from perfect its intentions were good, and if they had followed through Iran would be a middle eastern super power rather than a pariah state. The monarchy has gained a huge following, largely because the Shahbanu, Empress Farah Diba, even at 86 still comes across as so human, and this is the first time that I have ever seen or heard such widespread calls for monarchial restoration. If it happened I know many Iranians, the hundreds of thousands of exiles who liven America, France, Britain and Germany would go back and help recover its economy.

I’ve attended anti-Government protests in Trafalgar Square. Iranians turn up in their thousands. The whole time young men in black from the Iranian embassy wander around filming everyone, they’re not subtle. I know how to avoid the cameras, but the Iranians of the diaspora are not afraid. They offer them the contempt they deserve by ignoring them.

There’s more to this, this time though. Something about the reactions of the police and enforcement is different. Perhaps this time their daughters futures, their food bills, their water supplies and their lives are not as good as they once were. Perhaps they know what everyone else knows. The call of ‘End it now’ against the theocratic regime is loud, maybe they too have had enough?

It will be a huge blow to both China and Russia if that was to pass, their strategy would be out of the window, Iran has never had much sympathy for Russia, only its current isolation has changed that. If it opened up to the world and moved towards the Europe+ west it would be a huge shock to the Middle East and South-Central Asia offering up huge options and alternatives. Israel would benefit, everyone would. And most of all so would the people of one of the most historic and culturally significant countries in the world.

Irans regime has been bankrupt morally and politically for years. It can’t just hold on for ever. If it cracked and fell, then Russians too can see a way out of their predicament. As I have often said, the war in Ukraine will end quickly and in a way we have not seen coming. Perhaps this is its catalyst?

The Analyst

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