WHERE NEXT? NATO & AMERICA

This week is the Oslo Security Conference in Norway. It’s a different sort of conference to Davos, more low key and frankly while serious, a little more light hearted. Europeans, without the need to skirt around issues or spell them out in big letters and write them phonetically so that American delegates can understand the big words (at times dealing with Trump regime staff is like that), can make topical jokes and nobody takes offense. If anything they’re grateful for the wit and banter. Yet they absolutely know how serious the situation is.

The theme of the conference is various as it always is, but this time there’s a real focus on where we go next. There’s outright anger and disappointment that the US has withdraw from the World Health Organisation – Norway’s Prime Minister is an ex- executive and he said he felt distraught at the site of the US flag being removed from the WHO HQ in Geneva. He was anxious to make the point that there will be another pandemic, there will be warning signs and opportunities to do something. But without the US involved everyone else is weaker and the US is weaker still. It’s a big reduction in the capacity of the planet to resist what will be a global security threat – it’s not an if, but when.

There’s also outright fury and disgust the Baltic and Scandinavian countries, along with the UK feel, about having tariffs used to blackmail them into acquiescence over the Greenland stand off. They all feel relieved they found a way round it, but the fact the US would treat long standing allies in such a way has underlined just what a terribly distorted and changed world we live in now.

Everyone understands that the US is no longer the ally we need or even want. It has fundamentally changed and it will never again have the trust and respect of its allies.

As if to underline how disconnected the regime is from reality, Trump sat there yesterday in the Oval Office behind the Resolution desk – that itself a symbol from Britain – a gift of Queen Victoria to demonstrate the unity of our people and their origins – and said he’d just spoken to Putin. He claimed that there was an energy ceasefire and Ukraine would have a night of quiet. In reality it was a massive strike of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles – the largest Kyiv has ever suffered – and it took place at the very time Trump was declaring he’d secured a ceasefire. He looked an idiot because he is an idiot when it comes to Putin.

A good deal of discussion is now around how we preserve the essence of NATO and its outstanding organizational capabilities without America. There are those who are absolutely adamant that there is no NATO without America – but it has to be said they’re mostly American. They seem to live in a world where change cannot happen, but NATO is an organisation that has learned how to change and to ride the political wave through tough times and criticism. There are many ways NATO can continue without the US at all if need be, and nobody is saying it will be easy to reconfigure it and its capabilities.

In the end there are 33 other nations involved and they want security – and they know it’s NATO that provides it. America is important but its not the be all and end all of the organisation. There will be a lot of talk, a lot of soul searching, but everyone knows the direction this is going in – not least of all because the Americans have made it plain they want to reduce their involvement in Europe and they’ve already started to do so.

The Russians are in their usual cycle of making negotiations impossible to prolong their war against Ukraine, despite the obviousness of their own economically weak position. They believe if they can bluff it out for long enough they’ll get from Ukraine what they want. They think this despite the fact the Ukrainians, even as they suffer under energy grid failures now almost nationwide – and Russian efforts to cripple communal heating systems in temperatures of -22C (-7.6F). Attacks on civilians are their strategy – undermine the population. Ukraine has held back because of the peace talks to keep America on side, but I can tell you their patience is wearing thin now. They increasingly feel they don’t need what Americans are offering – even with weapons it’s a strings attached package and it’s no longer like its aid – Ukraine has to pay.

One thing Europeans generally agree on (other than the Toad of Budapest) is that they want Ukraine in any security framework. Not only does it deserve to be in it, it can be a leadership force as much of our security concerns inevitably turn eastward. Poland, Ukraine and the Baltics/Scandinavia – especially Finland – have direct borders with a potentially hostile Russia or whatever comes out of the war on that side of the border.

Britain and France can maintain a non-threatening nuclear weapons balance, provide tactical nukes as a balance to the NATO sharing platform – without America. The UK and French navies, with the Norwegians and the Danes, Germans, Dutch and Belgium have or will have resources enough to deal with Russia’s fleet in the Atlantic – operating with Canada. Russia just doesn’t have the capabilities it used to have. Post war it will take a decade to at least to rebuild its shattered economy let alone its military. And we’re already in the process of rearming so its not like we’re going to be out of balance with what they try to do.

Right now we’re in that moment where we all have to take stock. There’s not an urgency about this that’s overwhelming but it’s enough to really start the process of framing what we want and how we go about it. Not least will be a potential obstacle – the US Congress in November is likely to swap to Democratic control – even though Trump is urging action to subvert the vote and prevent it happening. The Democrats will not sanction the US departure from NATO. The question that Europeans are asking quietly is how do we get rid of them without making it such a clean break there’s no going back if America returns to ‘normal’. My argument is it will never return to normal. Fascism was a product of Mussolini a century ago, Hitler took it further, Franco ensured it lasted into the 1970’s, and its never really died. Now it sits on our doorstep both politically at home and in stark reality on Ukraine’s front lines where they battle it every day. The return of Democrats will be a temporary hiatus – especially given the short term memory of the average American. The Americans need to go.

The British are finding this hard to stomach. They just cannot imagine a world where they aren’t connected to the US at a fundamental level – because that’s how it’s been for decades. Their nuclear missiles are American, stored and maintained in America (though the warheads are British and kept in the UK). The technological backbone of AUKUS is crucial to its defence going forward. It doesn’t want to be placed on the other side of the fence and cut out – as it was in the 1950’s from vital technologies. Yet that’s what it must consider. The UK has based its long term military purchasing on US technology and equipment for so long for key systems it will take decades to unravel it. That’s a simple fact. In defence terms its also a very costly one and the current government is struggling to even provide a defence path to 2030 let alone beyond, as its promises turn, like so many British governments on defence, to political dust.

France gives its President extraordinary executive and policy making powers. Macron will be gone in May 2027. The hot favorite is the fascist National Front candidate – a young cipher of Marine Le Pen whose connections to Putin are legendary and very public. What then for France’s attitude and policies?

There is much to discuss, much to resolve and more than enough to think about. Yet Europeans are doing just that. There is no sitting on hands wondering, its about how to manage it, how to respond to it and how to get out from under a dilemma that could be crippling if it were allowed to go unresolved. And that’s something nobody is willing to let happen.

European resolve on Ukraine remains solid. The EU+ countries are not willing to give in on support. Ukraine will be financed and aided and helped to the end. A 20th package of sanctions are due to be introduced soon. We know Russia is struggling despite the waffle it puts out and the pretense it maintains. Yet its friends are the fairweather type bound up in their own problems.

Europe is glad that the NATO boundary is the Tropic of Cancer. Trump is busy lining up Marco Rubio’s payment for his fealty – the price, his lifetime goal of removing the Cuban regime, an island literally a handful of miles to the south of it the tropic line. Europe wants no part in the next Caribbean adventure. Trumps imperial adventures will carry on. But not with our help. We have enough to worry about and an entire continent of our own to protect – let alone Greenland and our dear friends in Canada.

We must work together, stay together and overcome so monumental issues. Cynics will say we never will. I have never believed them – we have far too much to lose to let that happen and the politicians know it.

The Analyst

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