This war has been one of the most communications driven conflicts in mankind’s bloody history. The near instantaneous ability to see the entire battlefield and react almost as quickly is why both sides have found themselves in a near stalemate. The lines of control barely move. Russia uses manpower to bully its way forward almost to the point of a meter at a time. Ukraine uses drones to slaughter that manpower in a way nobody even began to consider as possible four years ago.
So when one side decides to remove one of the arms of its communication through the Telegram network because it doesn’t like the loss of informational control it cedes to milbloggers and the military in general, as they describe the deprivations of their own army and its failings, let alone that of the government, you have to wonder if they’re losing the plot to paranoia after all.
Even more so when they remove that access just after having lost the one thing that the Russian army was infinitely more reliant upon than anyone had perhaps truly realized. The loss of Starlink to Russia is actually verging on catastrophic.
True command and control has been running through the Starlink system – an entirely illegal co-opting of the system that for his own reasons Elon Musk permitted to continue. Until Poland’s foreign minister in conjunction with the new Ukrainian Defence Minister, Budanov, a younger man able to talk to Musk in a way he ‘gets’, pointed out that SpaceX who owns Starlink, is about to have an IPO potentially valued at over $1 trillion. Investors would not be happy if they knew it was supporting Russias campaign of war crimes against Ukrainian civilians and aiding and abetting an illegal war of aggression. Musk agreed to shut the Russians down by using a whitelist system.
Ukraine would provide all of its systems ID’s and anything not on that list would be shut out. Russia lost Starlink inside 36 hours. Nothing was working. The result on the front was immediate. Attacks dropped off, the Starlink controlled Russian strike drones vanished.
In a war where little changes very quickly on the front because of the all pervasive nature of the intelligence gathering, that’s fed at light speed into the command and control brains of both sides, when both sides are using an effectively bulletproof communications system – the same system indeed, and one loses it? Its absolutely fundamental to the way the war is being fought.
Russia simply does not have alternatives. There is no Russian system that can do what Starlink does on this scale, and replicating it would take years. Russia, largely because of a mix of incompetence, budget cuts and corruption, managed to destroy its only operating space launch base at Baikonar last November during the launch of Soyuz MS-28. The Gazprom satellite system is tiny and next to useless and was never designed for this.
No amount of crowd funding Chinese radios and botched up systems is going to change this. Russia doesn’t have a unified all-purpose comms system – an astonishing oversight in some ways but not exactly surprising with what we have seen from them this past four years. That puts Ukraine in a shockingly advantageous position.
If I was C-in-C and you walked into my office and told me that the enemy’s entire comms system backbone had ceased operating permanently and that they were no longer in full control of their operations, I would have leapt out of my chair and been planning an offensive so fast my boots would catch fire. And almost out of nowhere there are increasing reports that on large parts of the front the Ukrainians have begun to move against Russian positions.
They have to do it. They have no choice. No military commander in his right mind would risk missing this opportunity. The chance to inflict a defeat on the Russian army and send some of it packing, maybe even a rout in some sectors – or better still, mass surrenders Amy be just down the line. We know how broken much of the soldiery are.
If the Air Force and every other resource can be scrambled with the army to set the front line alight, the opportunity to strike a meaningful blow that can actually achieve something is there before them. Is it risky, of course it is, but some times you have to take that risk, you simply have to.
And you know the Russians are squirming when they’re asking their agents in Ukraine to do anything and everything to get Russian Starlinks onto the whitelist – offering 10,000 Hyrivnas to anyone who does so – they’d be idiots but there’s always someone willing to sell out their country for money, ask Nigel Farage.
The fact that there’s enough information to say that Ukraine is launching a counter offensive is one thing, that they have a golden opportunity is unquestionable. That they’re keeping it quiet is understandable.
It’s not going to stop the Russians using many of their drones – they just won’t have the means of processing data and making local tactical or wider strategic decisions or coordinate them – especially with artillery and the now standard 200km range glide bombs.
We know that the Ukrainians are conducting operations around the Zaporhizia region, Hulaiapole, Pokrovsk and Kupiansk. Russia has been pushing in Sumy taking some small villages. But these aren’t going to change the wider war. If Ukraine can crack even one front line and force a breakthrough, then we might see a major change in the way this war proceeds.
So, where will this go, how will it end? We cannot know and it will only become clear when Ukraine decides to tell us or it leaks out. We must hope for the best, prey they know what they’re doing and why they’re doing it. This could be the beginning of the end. We can only hope.
The Analyst
militaryanalyst.bsky.social
The Military Analyst 
If the Ukrainian army can break through the defensive lines on the south and drive to Melitopol, and broaden that salient without ruZZia being able to muster enough defenses and continue to bolster that extension all the way to the coast by destroying the remaining key bridges, there is a chance to cause significant panic of the ruZZian army imo. Then cut the key bridges connecting it to Crimea on the west end, so that the entire ruZZian army could be encircled. What a dream, maybe it is possible now.
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Thank you TA, good positive news. There is also news that Zelensky is planning a General Election and/or Referendum currently scheduled for mid-May, subject to conditions including an agreed ceasefire. Many are voicing concerns which is understandable, but I feel this falls in line with Ukraine agreeing to ideas that both Trump and Putin will find totally unacceptable, so I very much doubt they will ever be close to happening. Zelensky’s government are outwitting Putin and Trump at every turn. Europe+ will never allow Trump to sell Ukraine down the river. Trump is complicit with Putin to try and buy Russia time before inevitable total militarily and economic collapse. This can only be a few more months away!!
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I don’t dare to celebrate too enthusiastically just yet. But the signs clearly indicate that the Russians are currently in a state of shock.
I only hope that the Ukrainian High Command will approach a counter-offensive with careful consideration this time – not like in Zaporizhzhia in 2023. I’m also eagerly awaiting the deployment of massive waves of Flamingos, which will finally destroy Russian military factories – not just the refineries and oil terminals.
But of course I don’t want to be too pessimistic either, because we are currently hearing and reading enough that the Ukrainians are in a more offensive stance – at least according to Syrsky.
I truly hope the Ukrainian army can finally achieve major successes on the front line. This would be important not only for the morale of the Ukrainian soldiers, but also for that orange idiot in Washington to finally side with the right side, 100%.
It would be nice to see (on the Deep State Map) if suddenly many areas of land reappeared green. I wish the Ukrainians the best of luck so they can finally kick the Russians’ asses.
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Having lived in Ukraine for 16 years now I have little doubt that the upper command structurer will realize the golden moment they have been given nor how to use it.
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You might want to review and edit your comment yet because I think you wish to express resentment about the lack of a response to corruption/failure within the Ukrainian military hierarchy as a Ukrainian soldier/insider yourself.
To me, from outside, it does seem like the new leadership put in place after the shake up, following the exposure of corruption in the presidential advisory staff, has really changed the mindset from the old soviet mindset to a new modern/western approach to the administration of the military. Make sense?
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The article stands as it was written because it will be relevant historically in times to come. That things have changed is also relevant for future comment. Besides at this point nobody will read it afresh and WordPress doesn’t allow you to republish existing articles without paying even more money to do so.
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You may yet be proven correct but complaints from small unit commanders (platoon, company) are still very critical about the upper command structure sending them on missions that make little sense or reflect old soviet stye thinking. I now NATO at one time was critical of this but I have lost contact with sources.
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My comments were a reply to Steve’s response, not to the Military Analyst’s discussion. I felt like his grammar (where I thought his line of argument about the actions of the Ukrainian commanders) should read “will fail to realize” the golden opportunity they have been given….
Sorry it was not clear initially, because I think he did mean, and feels, resentment that the military command is still stuck in the soviet hierarchical mindset. But a few critical words were left out in his sentence. my opinion of course.
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The illegal Russian Starlink usage was condoned. On that scale the operators absolutely would have clear data on where traffic came from and to. Musk knew and authorised it or ought to have known, but didn’t care. It’s good that they’ve been cut off, and even better that they’re panicking. Even better that the FSB mafioso chose censorship over battlefield effectiveness.
Ukraine should sow confusion in Russian lines. Test sections of the front; use dummy moves and strike at the rear. If they can make a break through, especially if they can take a lot of prisoners, or kill command centres – all the better.
Whatever they do, nothing should remove focus from destroying the Russian economy. That is key to ending this war on the best Ukrainian terms.
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Elon knew that the ruZZians were using starlink, but in his world it was not important.
What made it important was the investigation by the French police that began recently and the new Ukrainian defense minister was able to finally get across to Elon the importance of his cooperation in shutting down the ruZZian starlink connections while the French police were combing through his records. jmho
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An offensive now would be well timed as Ukraine has been wearing down Russian capabilities over a long time. The Russian army is no longer mobile, most of its equipment has been destroyed. They would find it very difficult to redeploy troops to resist a counter attack. Their air defences and artillery have also been worn down. I’m very hopeful, I just hope we don’t have a ceasefire just as Russia collapses
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@shadowytechnicallyc6eddf257d
Is my grammar your only point of issue? As for how I feel why do not directly DM me?
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There’s no DM available through this platform. I think it was spelling of a specific word that was important. I can actually edit comments on here but don’t to unless it’s offensive – one or two have somewhat more colourful language.
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Absolutely agree! No Starlink may well be the END of Russias ground game.
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Let’s hope Ukraine is taking full advantage of this amazing opportunity!
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Budanov isn’t the defence minister
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Yes we know. It’s been mentioned but I haven’t had time to correct it
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