THE FLAMINGO CONUNDRUM

The prospect of the Flamingo missile, we can be pretty sure because there’s evidence to demonstrate it, seriously bothered the Russians. They were so bothered that they decided to expend considerable resources to find out where it was being made and when they did, the used an Oreshnik IRBM with multiple warheads to penetrate deep under the surface of a site in western Ukraine, taking out the FP2 complex with it.

We know they were bothered because as soon as they realized the Ukrainians were test firing them at targets in Crimea, where they were not entirely successful, the started to move around their air defences across the entire front. This was an action that actually improved the situation for Ukraine’s drones at the same time, leaving big gaps in the Russian air defence network. It also allowed Ukraine to catch and destroy an above average number of anti-air systems as they were on the move.

With the primary site of production destroyed, the Flamingo, which I would guess from the timetable of developments we were allowed to see, was already behind schedule (not even slightly unusual for such complex projects), seemed to vanish. There was even speculation it had been abandoned as too expensive and too unreliable, as initial uses showed it coming up short of its target and the Russians showed what was clearly a Flamingo missile in pieces flat on the ground in some woods. The less than faithful in the west decided it was just a propaganda weapon in the end, that went nowhere.

While I reported on the doubts and the doubters on BlueSky, I didn’t have any. I didn’t say I didn’t have any because why make a rod for your own back? I did think the production lines had been damaged when Ukrainian drone attacks into Russia dropped off dramatically and clearly had nothing to do with the fake negotiations. I remember thinking at the time when Ukraine asked journalists to go in the factory that they might well regret that long term. You would be amazed how deeply intel services work. It’s a game of detectives. They would have looked at the paint on the walls, the type of walls, the piping, the style of lighting, analysed the accent and social records of anyone speaking to pin down the area they came from, looked at the travel records of airlines and journalists and a dozen more clues, including ownership records for the site and even above average electricity use.

So Ukraine suffered a setback, it’s war, it happens. It’s about how fast you recover from it that shows the strength of the people and the nation. Ukraine recovered fast, probably because they knew sooner or later Russia would find the factories and they needed to be ready for that day. Site 2 was probably already mostly ready, I suspect Site 3 is already prepped.

Flamingo was very much back in the mix last week. At least three missiles, two of which made it, managed to hit a previously untouched refinery1,700km away from the frontlines. Other closer targets have also been hit. Whatever it was Ukraine had not resolved about targeting data, it has clearly over come it.

The missile, in order to reach its targets, given its large size and massive 1 to 1.5 tonne warhead has to fly at about 30m where Pantsir and BUK missiles find it nearly impossible to find them. Traveling 2-3000km at 30m means you either have a detailed pre-installed map that uses terrain contour matching and image recognition to correct course – and that takes years of photographic and coordinates matching data to pull off, or you have a mix of that, Inertial Navigation and Glonass and/or GPS access to a fine detail. It might be possible that France for instance (because the US has refused to provide such data for missile guidance), has been able to provide enough information to cover several flight paths without necessarily covering all of Russia, yet.

Whatever it’s doing the fact is, for the Russians they know Flamingo is back in business, probably way faster than they ever imagined. And now they have to make choices. They have to prioritize what they choose to defend. They have to face the fact that they may have little if any warning or time to prepare. They will also be expecting decoys to throw them off guard.

These are choices Russia must make now. It will impact what else and how else they try to defend because they don’t have the system depth anymore to cover what they used to. It’s an impossible right choice set of options. There will always be mistakes because Ukraine will always be one step ahead of expectations in targeting.

For Russia right now, there are few ways they can do anything about Flamingo. For them it is unquestionably a major development in the war and it will deliver a strategic blow to the Russian federation. The more of them produced the more they will inevitably intercept, but they know it will never be enough. If these start flying out of Ukraine at the rate of ten or twenty a night they’re going to be taking a serious toll of some major facilities.

They will be especially concerned for the refineries and oil storage sites, because with record amounts of oil stored on tankers with no buyers – estimated to be running at 227 million barrels, lack of storage buffer space on land is going to mean shutting down more fields.

Add to that how long before the Flamingo is destroying the power plants and steam heating generators that keep much of Moscow and St Petersburg warm during the winter and the lights on? How long before Russia is facing what Ukrainians have for months and even years now? This war isn’t about survival for Russia, nobody is threatening them with annexation or national destruction, nobody much wanted this war or approves of it continuing. They have no reason to sit there and not protest – quite the opposite.

Flamingo en-masse is the end of many factories and production sites that are key to Russia’s war effort, vital to its economy. The fact that Flamingo was sued to hit the very site the factory that makes them was hit from where Oreshnik was launched, at Kapustin Yar, won’t be lost on Russia, especially as their Baikonor facility was also destroyed in a major launch failure.

Let me be clear, Flamingo is not going to win the war. It’s not a wonder weapon. What it does do is correct a balance, and once again tips the war towards Ukraine’s advantage. Ukraine continues to innovate, to learn, to develop, to find new and exciting ways to overcome problems. It’s come from nothing to one of the most sophisticated technological armies in the world and is the world leader in drone warfare – and it’s done a lot of it by itself. Its overcome the long range strike capability that the US and Europe could have given it and made it itself – admittedly Flamingo is a mostly British design, but Ukraine made it happen. Russia has more capable systems and uses them daily. but it never ever bargained for Ukraine being able to level the playing field – and that’s what Flamingo does.

The worst part of this for Russia is that its not got the air defences to cover the whole country and these days its too dangerous to push them close to the Ukrainian frontiers – which would be the most sensible thing to do to cover the exit points out of Ukraine. During the drone hiatus they created in the past weeks the Russians moved more drone launchers, anti-air systems and even Iskander systems into Crimea. Now the drones are back this systems are suffering intense punishment – a lesson Ukraine had taught them but as usual with the Russians, they forgot all about it.

Rejoice in the return of the Flamingo – it’s going to cause mayhem. It’s going to be one more weapon in the arsenal of crushing the Russian war machine and bringing Russia down.

I know many of you say, we’ve heard it all before, the Russians are doomed, their economy will collapse, it’s just a matter of time. Why hasn’t it happened yet?

There’s an old adage that war economies don’t collapse – until they do. Nazi Germany only faced the collapse of its war economy between July 1944 and February 1945. Its peak production was actually May-June 1944, but it was nothing near comparable to what the allies were producing by that stage, so it no longer mattered, it was going to lose and there was nothing they could do to stop it. Russia’s will be much the same. It won’t matter how much it’s producing if it can’t deploy it, can’t make it function in the hands of its armed forces. Perhaps most importantly it won’t be producing the right things because with the help of missiles like Flamingo the industrial complex will no loner be able to produce what it needs.

Add to that the internal realization they’re losing, the scramble for power once Putin looks weak – he can build Rosguardia into Praetorian Guard as much as he likes but many of you will know that the Praetorian Guard ended up being a key reason the Roman Empire fell. It controlled the levers of power, it created its own emperors and when it wasn’t doing that it was auctioning the position off to the highest bidder. In the end Emperors distrusted it so much most of them were German mercenaries.

Flamingo has the potential to speed the process up, to make it happen sooner rather than later. This was is not over or anywhere near it. Russia doesn’t want it ended and frankly Ukraine will be strategically better off if it goes on. You have to strip away the casualties and the civilian deaths and look at the big picture, callous as that may sound. The longer this goes on, the more Ukraine is likely to win it, because Russia is already scrambling and it’s struggling. It has no real friends and China can’t and won’t support it enough to give it the upper hand, it knows the consequences would be bad for it, and besides which if Russia collapses there are some long held border revisions it will be delighted to make good on, never mind the resources and influence it can wield in far easter Russia.

Europe+ is so behind Ukraine now – in spite of Trumps America as much as needing to defend itself by proxy. Russia is nothing compared to the financial, industrial and people potential of the EU, never mind Europe+. We know we can do it too, it’s finally reached where we can prove to ourselves we can and we do make a difference. Russia is starting to get it, and soon so will the Americans.

Flamingo is a symbol and the practical application of making a difference. It’s about resilience, military-industrial capability, political and economic will, and the desire to defeat a mortal enemy. It will help make that happen. Because Ukraine surviving and Russia losing matters. It matters now more than it ever did. The stakes are that high as we enter the second quarter of the 21st Century.

The Analyst

militaryanalyst@bsky.social