MIDDLE EAST STRIFE: THE SECOND FRONT

War in Africa goes almost unreported. We stress, rightly over Ukraine, it’s fundamental to European security. Yet in the past three years 400,000 Sudanese have died and in the past six weeks it’s believed 60,000 more were deliberately massacred by Government forces backed by Saudi Arabia in Darfur. The opposition Rapid Reaction Force, backed by the UAE is loosing ground to the government. Both sides are as bad as each other.

In Yemen the civil war there has been radically altered by a Saudi offensive. There are the Houthi’s who control, with Iranian backing, the smaller area, but the more prosperous once independence North Yemen in Sa’na. The UAE backed forces controlled most of the once marxist South Yemen – geographically the largest area with most of the country’s oil. Technically based in the capital, Aden. However the UAE spent a fortune building up port terminals in the coastal city of Makkala further west. The official government held a small area of South West Yemen and most of the northern border area of South Yemen halfway to the coast.

The Saudis, feeling that the UAE backed forces were about to tip the scales, decided to act and launched a ground and air offensive that in a matter of six weeks this year, has completely eradicated the UAE forces position, captured Makkala and largely restored the official Governments position. This had been precipitated by the UAE instigating a referendum making South Yemen a separate state again. That idea is now dust. The UAE has been severely humiliated.

Across the Red Sea in Somalia there are three competing regions. Puntland in the north east, which is separated from its western neighbor, Somaliland, by a larger area they dispute. To the south is the official full government of Somalia based in Mogadishu. Somaliland acts entirely independently even though few recognize its existence as a separate state. Puntland tries to remain out of the argument while there’s nothing the central government can do, it has islamic militants to its south. Somaliland has actually become quite a successful state – supported by the UAE and recently recognized by Turkey and Ethiopia. Ethiopia needs to build a railway to bypass the state of Djibouti which is now seething with Chinese influence and a military base, and was its only export outlet by sea. Somaliland offered an alternative and the UAE is good at building ports. None of which the Saudis like and they go out of their way to block recognition of Somaliland as a separate nation. All of this is of course just a stones throw over the water from the conflict in Yemen.

In the middle sits a strategic island called Socotra, which the UAE has occupied and is building both a port and air base for its own use.

It may seem hard to comprehend but until the past couple of years the Saudis and UAE were actively cooperating – mostly because they were blocking Iranian operations and incursions. Now they’re not and a new polarity has developed. Saudi Arabia concluded a new and important treaty with Pakistan in September 2025. It effectively places both countries under an attack on one is an attack on the other policy, and it’s widely understood that Pakistan is making its nuclear capability the shield under which Saudi Arabia is now sitting.

Turkey, which is allied with Qatar (itself having external involvements in Libya with Turkey, and was once involved with Sudan but backed away), has now made overtures to reboot its relationship with Saudi Arabia and is looking at joining the Saudi-Pakistan Alliance.

The UAE, under the so called Abraham Accords, now has a surprisingly close relationship with Israel – it secretly did before they were concluded, but now both legal trade and weapons technologies are being shared and developed – in conjunction with the US. Saudi Arabia permits Israeli commercial overflights.

The Saudis are also working with Turkey to get the Kaan 5th Gen fighter up and running. They’re both actively supporting the new Government in Syria and trying to stop Israel establishing a Druze Christian stronghold between the Golan Heights and Syria proper.

Saudi Arabia also shook things up by creating a stable non-agression agreement with Iran of all countries. So much so that they have actually conducted naval exercises in the Gulf together.

From the Saudis point of view they doubt the commitment of the US to the region once Iran’s government is changed – if it can be, so they’re hedging their bets. They would like to normalize relations with Israel but what Israel did in Gaza is simply too much for the Saudi population to accept – even though Saudi Arabia didn’t lift a finger to help the Gazan people.

The problem with the region is that Israel is ascendant in its own sphere, its rendered Irans proxies virtually redundant, the Houthis are isolated but too powerful to engage even for the Saudis. Without Iranian backing they’re a spent force and likely to compromise longer term.

With Iran out of the picture in the wider Middle East – not for lack of trying – the UAE and Saudis had no unifying cause and now are just direct rivals. The UAE’s President Zayed was Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman’s mentor – now they don’t even speak. Things are so bad the UAE refused to even take part in the recent Saudi defence show.

The problem is that the UAE is on the losing side of this conflict because the fact is its made strategic mistakes it can’t get itself out of without more humiliation. Everywhere its decided to engage it has backed the rebels or the alternates – Saudi Arabia backed the government forces and the edge that gives them – a thin veneer of respectability and legal cover, has so far proved to be enough to cover up the brutalities committed in their name. And the Saudis have the upper hand, and vastly more money.

The elephant in the room for everyone is the United States. It is about to deploy a second aircraft carrier due this week on station in the Arabian Sea with all of its escorts. Its estimated 50% of the available US Navy is in the region, a buildup not seen since 2003 and the second (and foolish) Iraq invasion.

In the US, the commentary seems to be that a vast armada of US Air Force aircraft numbering over 200 combat aircraft let alone tankers and EW, along with the Navy and its strike capacity, mean something is happening one way or another. A-10 Warthogs were spotted with F-35’s by tourists at Chania air base on Crete only this weekend. The Americans are ‘seriously pissed’ that the UK has blocked them using the base at Diego Garcia or the bases in the UK or Cyprus to conduct an attack. This is not the same in UK eyes as defending Israel from ballistic missiles and drones – Iran started that. This is just US and probably, Israeli aggression. In America it’s seen as America drifting to war with Iran for no real reason. Trump doesn’t seem to know why, so why would anyone else but the hawks want this?

Trump killed the nuclear agreement that he now wants Tehran to abide by. They don’t understand why it’s gone this far and they’re weaker than they ever have been. More unrest and more killings have occurred this weekend. Video shows even the police calling for the end of the regime and shoot to kill orders have been issued and used by the government.

The whole US operation shows that there’s a tacit understanding Irans nuclear program was too deep and too hard to really destroy it, even if it was damaged. It’s unlikely anything less than a nuclear weapon would actually render it destroyed in totality and even then at several sites, and that’s not happening. Yet it might this time be more about regime change. There have been mysterious explosions at ‘bunkers’ and alleged command posts in Iran. A new uprising is under way, and American forces are at maximum in mere days.

The Middle East has its own conflicts that spill into Africa as rich countries vie for influence and power. A truly awful war that the West has seemingly no interest in, in Sudan, sees endless deaths. Libya too is still split by conflicting powers. Somalia is riven with jealousies and influence peddlers. Israel sits astride the region as a military colossus and its quite capable of reaching out and attacking anyone it doesn’t like. An air strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar was just one more point of proof they can do what they want, whenever they want, and despite billions in air defences nobody knew it was happening.

And Iran isn’t sitting quietly. Making sure the army has something to do so it can’t involve itself in the domestic issues, it has deployed against Iraq. Partly that will be over the mess elections there have created as to who will be prime minster – most likely the despised Nouri Al Maliki again. But it’s also to warn the Americans their isolated forces in the region could be easy targets. Iraq has no power to stop Iran doing anything.

Then there’s the other big issue. If any conflict breaks out what happens to the oil price? The Russians are praying for a disaster so that the price skyrockets and their oil is in sudden demand. Nobody will care where oil comes from if there’s a sudden shortage they can make up from Russia. And if sanctions had to be lifted? What then for the war in Ukraine? Like it or not one affects the other.

Three nuclear powers, Israel, Pakistan and the US, one mad-hatter desperate theocratic regime terrified of losing power, and a bunch of largely unprincipled heavily armed autocratic monarchies who control half the worlds oil with deep rivalries are sat on a giant hand grenade of doom. The question is who pulls the pin out and will it go off? This is the second front in WW3, Ukraine is the first, even Zelensky believes it, as he told the BBC late last week. The third will be what China does next and will it take advantage of America’s pre-occupation?

The Analyst

militaryanalyt@bsky.social

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