IRAN: WHAT COMES NEXT?

It’s fair to say that it has become crystal clear that the Trump regime never truly thought this war out. A campaign map would have been established initially, listing priorities and setting goals. There are several old adages that sum up the situation, but Eisenhower said it best; ‘Nothing goes wrong like a plan’.

It’s my belief they have passed that point already. The planned part of the operation is clearly over. The decapitation strikes, government buildings, barracks, military objectives in general. They have sunk Iran’s navy, destroyed its Air Force and made huge inroads against the TEL system ballistic missile launchers. They’ve leveled industries supporting the war effort and again, smashed the known nuclear weapons development sites.

Iran had more of almost everything and it’s now about getting rid of a very considerable excess above Washington’s expectations. Iranian drones ares still raining down on the Gulf states.

The US has suffered an embarrassing loss of a THAAD system which was hit by a ballistic missile – THAAD is entirely for the purpose of shooting down ballistic missiles. Its radars alone take two years to build. I have a friend in California who worked his whole life building radars of this type. They’re usually made one at a time. The skill base is mostly older retired men paid a fortune to do the work because new recruits and apprentices are so hard to find. This is a real loss.

The accuracy of the Iranian missiles has proven to be so good that they must have had help from Russia in developing them. They have noticeably improved since last year’s conflicts.

The war has moved on to include an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon as they try to expunge Iran’s long term proxies, Hezbollah. They are the weakest they have ever been. Yet don’t forget their link to Iran is as much about shared religious beliefs as it is politics. They’re a Shia enclave in that part of the world, Iran will not want to abandon them but Israel isn’t offering any options and the Lebanese government won’t mind if they’re eradicated or reduced to a level they can manage them with their own armed forces.

The Gulf states are more than a little upset that as they see it, Iran has betrayed them. Other than US bases none of them wanted or planned to take an active role in exchange for being left alone. The scale of the US attacks and the decapitation of the Iranian leadership pushed the country into survival mode – the localised command of forces, the end of days scenario for Iran that went into effect, empowered low level commanders to strike anything they could reach. From Iran’s perspective they had nothing left to lose. The impact on the Gulf states has been severe, and their over reliance on the expensive Patriot system has left them unable to deal with Shaheed drones.

The Americans now understand what Ukraine has been saying for years. The Shaheeds are difficult to deal with and small arms fire alone is no way to defend from them. The dawn of the interceptor drone in the form of the P1-SUN (the drone is shaped rather like a penis and ‘pisun’ in Ukrainian means ‘dick’, they do have a rather wicked sense of humor), has helped revolutionize anti-drone warfare in Ukraine. Qatar and the UAE are willing to pay almost anything to get them and have asked for over 2,000 each, but its not the production that’s the problem, its the training of the operators which takes several months. They may be useful in the next war.

In the meantime it seems the US has been shocked (I just don’t know how after the lessons from Ukraine) over the speed of weapons depletion. The Patriot and HARM missiles especially, along with high use of conventional Tomahawks seems to have come as a surprise. Partly its the number of targets that seems to have increased beyond their initial estimates – suggesting lack of intelligence information – or more likely with this administration, a willingness to ignore it if it didn’t fit the scenario they wanted to go with.

Militarily what Israel and the US have done is yet another extraordinary military campaign. No other power on the planet could have achieved it – the point is having achieved almost all of their military objectives what comes next?

As Karl von Clausewitz wrote in his book ‘On War’, ‘war is a continuation of politics by other means’. So what is the political outcome Trump seeks? Trump has said one thing and then another that’s almost contradictory.

One minute he says he doesn’t mind if Iran doesn’t become democratic, then that he’ll destroy anyone who takes over as leader (apparently even as I write this the new Supreme Leader Mojtada Khameni, the previous leaders son, has been injured in a strike).

Mojtada is seen as weak by the IRGC even though he has worked closely with them, yet western diplomats say he is a prime mover and shaker behind the scenes – possibly only because of his father. With him gone others seem less keen on accepting his son. For example the title of Ayatollah is only give to the most revered clerics at the top of the religious and learned spiritual tree, and he’s not old enough in their eyes to hold it. A Supreme Leader of a religion who is not an Ayatollah is an incongruous position in the theocratic world of Iran’s religious sects. Yet they seem to have nobody else who can be agreed on – or wants the job – so they chose him, probably thinking his life expectancy will be minimal.

Meanwhile the political side of Irans government under President Peshkarian seems powerless to do anything. He apologized to the Gulf states and said the attacks would stop. He’d barely finished speaking when a drone hit the airport terminal in Dubai. Nobody seems to be paying any attention to him at this point. At the same time Iranian Government spokesmen were going on TV & Radio insisting attacks on the Gulf monarchies would carry on and ‘everyone in Government and The People were united in that decision’. Clearly the regime in Iran is in no position to make deals or promises even if Trump were willing to accept an offer to cease fighting, the authority just isn’t there.

The fact is that Trump and the US have no end game here. They seem to be willing to play it by ear, which is nonsense. The USS Ford is now in the Red Sea heading for 270 days on deployment and will join the USS Lincoln and the USS GWH Bush in the Arabian Sea. Three carrier battle groups is unprecedented. The Ford is only moving because France has moved their carrier to the eastern Med.

Is this pressure or just a ramping up of the military campaign? What does Trump want? What will solve this and end the fighting? We simply don’t know because nothing he has said means anything.

What will end the war is what always ends American wars: too many casualties. And while Trump says he doesn’t want boots on the ground he also says he’s not closed to the idea.

Trumps base politically, is almost equally between those who are furious America is in another war – a war he promised would not happen on his watch – and those who apparently still trust in him. Congress failed to restrain him, despite his breach of the War Powers Act, and the mid-term elections are looming in November. Trump seems unconcerned about what losing the senate and the house would mean for his presidency. If fuel prices continue to skyrocket, they won’t come back to normal for months. If they make the cost of living crisis worse and food keeps spiraling upward, for most Americans that’s a fail. Already 48% disapprove of his handling of the economy. The war will make things worse, and the longer it goes on the worse it will get.

What is a victory over Iran? Smashing it back to the Stone Age militarily while still keeping the current regime? They’ll just find another way to get revenge no matter how long it takes. Changing regime requires too many elements to line up – not least public willingness to oppose the regime and remove it. And then what?

What about the ethnic minorities in Iran who make up almost 52% of the population? Only 48% are actually ethnically Persian. The Khameini’s father and son, are in fact Azeri’s.

The Kurds bordering Iraq and the Balochs or Beluchis in the SE are the most restless. Trump has called on the Kurds to attack the regime though they seem reticent- he’s left them in the lurch in Syria before.

As things stand now the Straits of Hormuz are closed. Qatar has stopped producing LNG, 20% of the world’s oil is cut off. Taiwan is deeply dependent on Qatari LNG – TSMC consumes nearly 9% of Taiwans energy making computer chips. You see where a supply chain problem quickly develops into potentially thousands. China is heavily dependent on Iranian oil. So is Japan. India had just been weaned off of Russian and is now going back to it. Western Europe needs Qatari LNG to stock up before next winter – and this one isn’t over yet. The UK for example has a buffer of just two days gas.

Bahrein long ago lost its oil reserves and now makes its money only refining and finishing fuels, but its refineries are badly damaged. The gas pipeline that runs across the peninsula from the UAE to Oman where LNG tankers load in the Arabian Sea is still operating but has been targeted.

Everyday this conflict spirals without resolution is increasingly risking a major economic hit to the rest of the world. And the rest of the world doesn’t want this. It never voted for Trump, or his policies. Why should it have to live with them? Everyone must be coming to the conclusion that you cannot trust the Americans anymore. They’re a loose cannon, churning up trouble and strife without an end game. You never know where is next – because this war is just one example of how undisciplined the Americans are, how weak their democracy has become, because even when the war is over – the war they chose to start – they don’t know how or when to end it. Until someone explains to Trump enough is enough, and he thinks he can say it and have it believed, he’ll just carry on.

This war is an open ended crap game, until the numbers are rolled that let Trump walk away, it will just keep on going, everyone will have to manage as best they can. And with the risk that inadvertently, other powers will be drawn to take advantage of the situation and the post-war weakness America will suffer from.

Finally, let me be clear. I despise the Iranian regime for what they have done to their own people and to innocent men and women through their proxy wars. I equally despise Trump and his heinous regime for their part in creating world changing scenarios they don’t understand and have no way of resolving. Its like amateur hour at the White House and the Pentagon. These men think they know what they’re doing, but time and again have proven in this century alone, they have no idea at all.

The Analyst

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