With just hours to go on the 21st April, the US regime, largely at the request of Pakistan which has been hosting negotiations and acting as mediator, authorized an indefinite extension to the ten day ceasefire. Ostensibly, according to the Pakistani government, this would enable the Iranians to, in effect get their act together as they effectively are arguing amongst themselves over what to concede – because they will have to give up something if there’s to be a real end.
Iran says it won’t negotiate until the Americans lift the blockade of Iranian oil exports, tankers returning to Iran, and all other commercial shipping going to and from its ports. That also applies to them lifting the blockade of the Straits of Hormuz. So far 25 vessels have been turned back and at least 1 cargo ship which is known to ship perchlorate (for rocket motors) from China to Iran, has been detained.
By cutting off oil exports the US hopes to choke Irans finances to the point of breaking the regimes will to continue. I don’t think they have ever understood that the core of Iran’s regime is hatred of America, tied to religious nationalist and islamic zeal even MAGA can’t comprehend. They’d sacrifice almost anything for the martyrdom they think is coming their way. Americans just don’t understand that level of intense self-sacrifice and commitment. How can someone like Trump even imagine what self-sacrifice means?
The American air bridge has continued even today, with dozens of C-17’s delivering weapons to US forces in the Middle East. Yet the will to do anything seems to have gone. Trump likes quick results and he isn’t getting them. The Americans seem to think they can wait out Iran, when every day they stay in the Middle East is now eroding their welcome. The Arabs have quietly and behind the scenes established their own agreement. What Iran can’t forgive is that they let them use their bases to operate against them. It’s not a mistake the Arab world will make again. Once the bulk of American material and forces have withdrawn – and they will go in time – they will evict the Americans permanently. Trump doesn’t see this coming, but its becoming alarmingly clear that the UAE is already moving that way.
When strategic thinker Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, who has 1.4 million X followers and the ear of the ruling family in the UAE, says:
“This is what I told Reuters today: The UAE no longer needs America to defend it, as it has proven during the Iranian aggression that it is capable of defending itself with distinction. What the UAE needs is to acquire only the best and latest weapons that America has. Therefore, it is time to think about closing the American bases, as they are a burden and not a strategic asset”
The quote had been seen 1.5 million times. Admittedly he still wants to buy the best kit because Arabs with vast pots of cash never want anything less. I’m not even sure I would rate their use of those weapons as being a matter of distinction – it was UAE forces who fired 8 Patriots at 1 ballistic missile. The reality of the opinion may be one thing, but the outcome is what matters. The Arabs have started to think even more than Europe+, that maybe we really don’t need America as we did, and that need comes with a steep cost we don’t want to pay anymore. I can actually see the GCC states becoming a more closely integrated military organisation – if they can stop interfering in conflicts in Africa where they end up on different sides.
As Trump sits back waiting for Iran to fall into line – he has a long wait I suspect, for which we will all pay because this energy shortage is not going to be held in abeyance for more than a few more weeks, he’s truly played into Irans hands.
While he generously extends the ceasefire – Iran has won that round. By not renewing attacks, he lets the Iranians have the thing they need most – time. Time to dig out the missiles and drones that have been buried in the tunnels since the first attacks. Time to get Chinese anti-aircraft missiles, time to ready new defences, time to make the islands in the straits impossibly hard to take.
The next time they’ll be better prepared, their command structures in order and designed to cope. They’ll have all the targeting information they need and the weapons to cause maximum damage on the Arabs over the other side of the Gulf. It’ll be a disaster. The only way out this time is negotiations, and the longer it takes and the better prepared the Iranians are, the more dangerous it will be to restart the war. Imagine if the refineries and oil processing facilities and export terminals came under massive attack? We’d be looking at global economic melt down. Has nobody explained this to Trump? And if they have does he even understand?
One of the most extraordinary results of this conflict is how Ukraine has started to profit from it, not just politically but economically and in its burgeoning reputation. I know we don’t see it quite like this – but we should – Ukraine is one of the most powerful military nations on the planet. Its equipment is the latest, its industries cutting edge, its design and flair and innovation beyond anything we’ve seen since WW2.
When President Zelensky put it out there that Ukraine was willing to help against Iran with whom they have a long standing dislike if not enmity, the Arab states, seeing what was available and how capable it was, jumped at the chance – and the investment opportunities.
This from President Zelensky on BlueSky says it all:
“We have already reached 10-year agreements with three key countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
We already have requests from 11 countries – the Middle East and the Gulf, plus we’re also gradually turning our attention to the Caucasus.
Within this Drone Deal, there will be at least 10 different agreements covering various categories of Ukrainian weapons exports. Co-production is planned – the construction of our production lines both in Ukraine and in other countries. New technologies that we are developing jointly with various countries, in which they are investing.
There is also an agreement on annual funding for a specific amount, along with a fixed number of years.”
The rest of the post went on about working with Europe, an equally important issue but not needed here.
It’s not just that. Ukraines foreign minister said at the recent Antalya Forum, countries that once ignored or shunned Ukraine are now tripping over themselves trying to get meetings and ingratiate themselves. It’s not just that they want weapons and lucrative investment deals either. It’s because they see a winner. They know Ukraine isn’t losing the war with Russia. Russia is looking more and more like a rotting husk of its former self and few really want much to do with it. Its yesterday’s great power. Ukraine is tomorrow’s.
If Ukraine’s sudden importance wasn’t enough it must surely have been magnified hugely by a massive defence and cooperation deal with India signed on April 19th. India, one of the emerging great powers and with a huge nuclear armed military, sought out Ukraine. Not Russia, not the US, Ukraine.
Now who has the all the cards?
The Analyst
militaryanalyst@bsky.social
The Military Analyst 