CHINA SUMMIT: IT MATTERS TO ALL OF US

As Trump lands in Beijing there’s a whole raft of problems, conflicts and areas of friction that need to be discussed. But will they? And if they do will anything come out of it that eases the continued roller coaster of American and Chinese actions designed to get at each other one way or another.

The visit was due to take place in March, but could not because of Trump’s war on Iran. A war that China objects to in several ways. It enjoys supporting Iran because it is in direct opposition to the United States and because the Chinese play the very longest strategic game of all. For example, Iran has caused the United States to use up at least half of its long range tactical weapons reserves. That is good for China in two ways. Firstly it makes the US less likely to want to engage China in the event of some unexpectedly dangerous collision over say, the Philippines. And secondly, the US will need yet more of Chinas rare earths to manufacture new weapons, and China has the power to restrict those rare earth exports if America doesn’t play ball over trade. Meaning it has the capacity to restrict American weapons manufacturing – something the Americans are well aware of.

Then there’s agentic AI. Both sides are working frantically to be first and best even as neither of them has a clue what the consequences might be for either of them. There’s a shared interest in perhaps working on how to manage whatever it might be and having some kind of restraining agreement.

Technologically though, Chinese intelligence gathering in and around America is on a scale few can appreciate and unless China restrains its activities the Trump regime will use it as a bargaining chip even as the Chinese refuse to even acknowledge it.

Taiwan is of course of huge importance to Xi. Time is running out to get it back – as the Chinese would see it. They want the Americans to find a way of admitting Taiwan is Chinese without saying so directly, making it even more difficult for the Taiwanese to stay independent. The Chinese have largely put aside the idea of military occupation – drones have changed the methodology of any war they have prepared for, Taiwan has invested in new types of defences that could prove embarrassing if used. The Kuomintang party in Taiwan has held up improvements to Taiwans defence and is effectively a powerful opposition that could win power in the next election. If it does then Taiwan will find its way ‘back’ to China without a shot being fired. Long before the 2049 deadline and the PRC’s 100th birthday.

Trumps tariff war against China flopped largely because the Chinese had the rare earths America needs and that was leverage they could not ignore. Some effort to harmonize relations will be made. What China wants is access to the US automobile market. Chinese EV makers are miles ahead of the US – even Tesla buys its batteries from Chinese suppliers, unable to make them as efficiently themselves. The latest crop of Chinese tech batteries for large cars and SUV’s charge in 4 minutes and range 930 miles. These are not a decade away, they’re 12-36 months from being widely available globally. Except in America. American manufacturers are not advancing the EV market, they’re being actively discouraged from doing so by Trump policies. Yet at the same time the war in the Middle East and the price of oil is demonstrating exactly why oil is unreliable, over priced and volatile – domestic car charging ports from the US grid escape that problem for good. China wants in on that market. What will they give for access?

What will Trump give to get the Iranians to comply with his demands, because a word from China will see the situation change? They want the straits open, they need the oil and other export/import trade. Trump knows that China supplies fuel for Irans ballistic missiles, components for its drones and recently anti-aircraft missiles for its troops. China has leverage over Iran in a way few others do, but will it use it and what will it want to do so?

China has infinite patience when it comes to the longer game. Xi has less. He is aware of time and his legacy. He wants Taiwan back, he wants recognition of Chinese rights in the South China Sea, but he doesn’t want to have to fight for them. It’s the threat that he might and has the means to do so that frightens everyone. They see America as a land of rotating politics and short lived presidents, here today gone tomorrow. Xi is still president even as Trump came, went and came back. he’s already close to being gone again in their time frames.

The question is how short a timeline is Trump working to and will he stick to anything he says he agrees to? This is what bothers the Chinese. He is unreliable and difficult. And they don’t trust him, anymore than he trusts them.

Trump will want a quick win, something to crow about before the elections. China will give it him if they can get something more substantial in return.

I would just as likely expect absolutely nothing but a bag of word salad to come out of this meeting. The Chinese would rather wait than give an inch they don’t feel like giving. Maybe the next president will be more reliable?

This summit will matter to everyone on Earth, in terms of energy and Iran, global AI developments and the avoidance of armed conflict. The trouble is Trump doesn’t understand the scale of what it means and that means it will likely amount to far less than it would have if someone with any common sense had been in charge.

The Analyst

militaryanalyts@bsky.social