Russia’s vast tank reserves that numbered in the 30,000+ range are gone for the most part. The T-80’s are almost non existent and while the army deploys around 3,500 tanks even now, they’re drone fodder and of low value. The ones they do deploy for various reasons, but almost never in the direct field, are the much older T-62. This old machine lacks composite armor and is seen almost as bait for drones so they will chase them rather than something else. Often rigged up with all sorts of semi-ludicrous anti-drone protection ranging from a half forest of trees to a mobile shed, they have been known to take as many as 70 FPV drones to be knocked out. But they are knocked out and Ukraine has drones to spare.
The T-62 and even older T-55 are repaired at several centers around Russia, using what’s left in storage as parts supplies. The number of all tanks has dropped dramatically as the war drained reserves and they went to the slaughter. The refurbishment process is not rushed and it requires specialist manpower that have effectively learned on the job how to fix these old arbiters of the past. The past is the past and Russia just wants to use them up while it can. This is their current strategy for dealing with tanks in this war.
Russia continues to build around 250 T-90 a year, but they don’t see front line service. They form a group of vehicles that Russia is building to the latest specification, not to throw into battle and lose, but to prepare for the future.
They know right now that they’re hopelessly outgunned by drones and as they are right now they’ll be defeated relatively quickly. What Russia is waiting for is an answer, a solution to the drone problem that the tanks they’re building can use and make them viable again. Right now they have no idea what that might be. Lasers, micro-interceptors, jammers, who knows. But the fact is they want to be ready with a viable tank force as soon as they can be, and building a handful of tanks now, in the middle of a war is easier to do than build them in peace time.
They also have a secondary use. If it becomes necessary there is nothing quite like a tank to instill fear in the streets if a revolt against Putin’s rule gets out of hand.
For now, Russias tanks are largely obsolete. The few they build they hope will form the core of a new drone resistant tank army. At the same time they cannot be sure even that will come to fruition. It could just as easily be that the tank is in fact, completely obsolete. The jury remains out yet it hasn’t stopped Poland, France and Germany from embarking on a next generation. We’ve seen this before WW2 – and again the Super-dreadnoughts are the prime example of building the past even with modern technologies, without understanding that the very principle of them is in fact outdated.
Russia is hedging its bets.
The Analyst
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The Military Analyst 
A very interesting future analysis from you @ TA, regarding tanks.
However, I think we shouldn’t completely write off tanks just yet. Especially since, despite their vulnerability to drones and other anti-tank weapons, they can still deploy their firepower close to the enemy and also provide support and protection for infantry. Rather, I believe that something will change regarding their main armament, and gun barrels will become obsolete in the future. I could easily imagine a hybrid form (ground/air combat), and also that these could be remotely controlled or AI-controlled in the future.
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Thank you TA, a good input on the diminishing role of the tank. The Abrams, Leopard and Challenger tanks are rarely mentioned these days. Of course there is the more sinister role for the T90s and Putin will have no qualms to use them against his own people!!
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Based on current technology there is little use for main battle tanks. Even for western forces the future of the tank is uncertain and tank on tank engagements are now very rare. To survive for even a short time they need a hard kill active protection system and its doubtful Russia has the capability to develop a reliable system. The challenges of detecting and intercepting a small incoming warhead are just too great. Russia is run by a regime living in the past, dreaming of the supposed glory of the Soviet Empire supported by Tanks. All they are doing is hastening Russia’s demise.
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I think these may be the tanks that fight in the civil war that follows the collapse of the Russian Federation. The combatants will be Putin’s private army versus the people’s army.
I expect there will be an even split of oligarchs on both sides. All hoping to survive.
Some are smart enough to go with the change, others will be like dinosaurs. Dinosaurs never had very large brains.
The forecast for Oct 2027 will be a lot like Oct 1917. Ugly.
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The Insider recently published an article “Shooting Starlink: The ‘no limits’ partnership between Russia and China…” Very interesting. Among other things it discussed the Russia/China co-operation on military tech – including tanks in a drone-heavy age; missile tech; satellite tech; their joint development of countering the Starlink and other strategies they’re working on to defeat their hated adversaries – us.
China may not be willing to do a war of attrition as Russia has done. 70% of the PLA are children of one-child policy families. There’s social security for older Chinese, Hence a high % of Chinese military have multiple dependents, and that has its own consequential risks. The Chinese seem to favour grey warfare, & coersion, bluff and generally Sun Tzu analyses. They want to learn as much as they can from Russia; and Putin has a desperate need for all the help he can get, and he’s willing to do what no prior Russian leader would have. He’ll give up anything for halp.
A lot of this could have been avoided, if Biden had been less fearful of “escalation”; the Europeans weren’t such dithering nodders echoing their “concern”; and Ukraine had been supported.
Russian UAV losses by (calendar) year highlight how the war has changed:
2022 (from 24 Feb), 1746
2023, 4845
2024, 14490
2025, 77021
2026 (to 10 Jul), 302947
2026 is on track for Russia to lose ~640,000 UAVs by 31 Dec; an 8 fold increase over 2025.
IMHO, tanks of the future are likely to be lighter; much more mobile; much less oriented toward direct offensive roles; but mobile electronics command posts. They’ll carry defensive capability to avoid destruction, but the real action will be the ground and air drones they co-ordinate.
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