NATO HAS MOVED ON, SO HAS THE US

Much of this will have passed many of you by. It’s no surprise, because there has been little coverage of one of the biggest shifts in NATO since its inception. It’s not just about NATO either, it’s the change in policy thats spreading right across the EU+ zone, which includes Canada and the UK. Much of the ‘regulatory’ aspect is within the EU, but its impact is huge and so far largely ignored.

Did you know for instance that the EU has now blocked US defense companies from being the primary defence contractors on any project?

That Germany has implemented a rule being taken up by others that no more than 8% of its procurement budget be spent on American weapons.

NATO has transferred all four of its major commands – with the exception of SACEUR, to British, Polish, German & Italian leadership.

In NATO’s own words, it will mean all of these commands will be at the forefront of crisis management in the event of an incident, and they will be commanded by Europeans. Indeed this is now being seen as a way of bypassing SACEUR if the Americans chose to refuse involvement in a future crisis.

The way the Americans see this in their own self constructed argument is that NATO allies are paying their share. What’s really happening is that yes they are, but at the same time there has been an almost undercover plan to ensure that NATO continues to function even as the Americans in effect, draw down.

On May 29 2025 the EU Council’s Security Action for Europe Regulation came into force. It’s only for EU members, €150 billion in EU budget backed loans. It specifically bans companies controlled from outside of the EU, Ukraine or EFTA (Norway/Switzerland/Iceland/Lichtenstein). No US company is allowed to have more than 35% involvement in any single project. Even then the company must transform its operations into fully European subsidiary that pays taxes and operates as a European company.

The magnitude of this is immense and it seems to have bypassed the US administration because they seem not to have grasped its full meaning, and if they did they don’t seem to care about what it means – and thats just as telling.

Nobody in the US seems to have grasped what this all implies, I can’t find any coverage of it at all. EU defence budgets have gone from $221 billion in 2021 to $392 billion in 2025 and still rising – and little of that money is heading to American companies.

The total fund over the period to 2030 is €800 billion, no less than 55% must be spent on EU weaponry (or Ukrainian). That’s a massive shift because up until 2024 66% of Europes weapons were bought in the US. By the end of 2025 that was down to 51%. Germany was the US largest customer until now. Thats just changed dramatically. Rather than spend it abroad, just as German car industries are going through one of their toughest ever periods, failing to transition to electric vehicles easily, the government is spending €88 billion with companies like Rheinmettal to produce military vehicles of all types and employing thousands of automotive workers in the process.

NATO’s own shift and its policy changes came about after the Munich Security Conference, when on February 14th 2025 JD Vance delivered a speech known as the Valentine’s Bomb. He told Europe that it was out of touch with itself, its culture and failed to understand that mass immigration was destroying it. It was so shocking a speech and so upsetting and insulting to most Europeans they knew the divorce papers with America had just been filed. He told us that we had too much internal censorship – which is ludicrous, that we as Europeans did not get our own ‘civilizational concerns’.

Christoph Heusgen, a long serving German senior diplomat was so upset by the comments he was seen to be crying, finding it almost impossible to believe an American Vice President was talking in such a way. He understood as did many that this was America going in another whacky direction, divorced from reality.

Neither the UK or France were immune to the scathing attack. They knew this was the end of the line and carefully prepared plans that had been laid in the event of the second Trump administration starting the process of disengagement They were now wheeled out. The Coalition of The Willing materialized at speed with 35 countries committing to European security guarantees for Ukraine.

What they did next is fascinating. A new command was established in Paris run by a British Major-General. It was not part of NATO in any way, and nor was it part of the EU defence command chain. The Americans had absolutely no say in its operations.

By January 2026 the UK and France agreed a memorandum of intent that the UK and France would, in the event of a peace deal send troops to Ukraine to monitor that deal – wether or not the US or Russia liked it. That would be controlled from the new command in Paris.

Things became even more clear that a break was coming with the US because it was being framed as if it actually wasn’t happening. In December 2025 NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said there was no need for the EU to break with America on matters of defence. Six weeks later on February 6th 2026 he announced that the UK would take command of the Norfolk Virginia based North Atlantic Command – never before done, always had a US Admiral. Italy took control over Joint Forces Command in Naples – previously always a US Admiral. Germany and Poland were to share command over Joint Forces Command in Brunssum, Germany, always previously an American general. Thats effectively put all of the major European commands under European control – with the willing support of the US administration. The only reason SACEUR remains is because US nuclear weapons are distributed through Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Germany and the UK under the nuclear partnership, and there was no way they would be handed over to a non-US commander.

Within a week the new US defence strategy document shook everyone by de-priortising Europe and focusing almost exclusively on the Chinese threat. This isn’t Europe pushing America away, its America withdrawing and Europe taking up the challenge – both industrially and militarily.

What Trump and his foolish band of naive policy people have let happen over the past two years, is allow their isolationist vision to get the better of their economic view. Leaving Europe and teaching it to learn to distrust it, America has helped redirect vast amounts of defence spending away from the American defence giants and cut their profits. Profits used to keep America at the leading edge of military technology through research, which in turn is sold to allies for profit and the cycle continues. Trumps worldview has broken that chain for America but galvanized Europe+ defence industries.

It is in fact even more deeply fundamental. America has always been self interested, profit its ultimate driver. Selling vast amounts of weaponry and material to Europe has been exceptionally lucrative over the decades. It gave Washington huge leverage and a reason to stick around beyond its idealogical fight with communism. Taking itself out of the EU-NATO area and away from Europe, seeing its industrial base lose the leverage it gave America, makes America less inclined to want to stay engaged. It’s a spiral to eventual complete decoupling if it’s given enough tome to run.

As Europeans we may think this is a good idea – you won’t me hear me complain. Europe should stand alone. The question is at what point does Europe insist that SACEUR is replaced with a European? Thats the point when we must be ready with our own tactical nuclear weapons and systems. Because until we have those we cannot let America take theirs away, but once they have SACEUR need not be an American.

Next years French Presidential election will be a critical juncture. Macron has driven this to a huge extent. He’s consistently been president for ten years and seen this through. His successor – a vain fascist criminal who took Russian campaign money or a vacuous telegenic cypher are on the cards, as the opposition seems utterly bereft of providing anyone with enough charisma or impact to win, seem to be the only ones viable. They will change everything and it won’t be easy to deal with.

Even so, America moved itself on, to its own deep cost. NATO has risen to the challenge with the Europe+ nations in lock step. How amazing is that?

The Analyst

militaryanalyst@bluesky.social