It brings me no pleasure to write that title, but fail it has. The US Navy was one of the finest organizations and services in the world. Extraordinary professionalism, dependable as an ally, supportive, cooperative and at a human level a joy to work with.
It has been let down by its own leadership – a long slow process, political mismanagement by Navy Secretaries who really didn’t know what they were doing, and a systemic strategic failure to insist on investing in what matters. Add to that terrible program management and a naval shipyard industry completely driven by profit rather than need and you have what you have today.
The worst part about this is that Iran has been a potential major enemy for nearly 50 years now. It’s never made a secret of it since the revolution in 1979. In all that time, which included the Reagan arms build up that treated the navy extremely well, certain aspects of the naval sip building mix were ignored. In the 1990’s and early 2000’s budgets were slashed and ships retired. Ships are still being retired and there’s little or no replacement for them.
That is especially true in the area of mine warfare. The United States Navy has absolutely zero capability in the field of mine warfare and countermeasures. None. Absolutely nothing at all. It relies entirely on its allies to provide any form of mine countermeasures warfare.
It’s extraordinary because Russia is known to use mines, as are the Chinese and the North Koreans. Everyone knows Iran has made mine warfare a top tier operational requirement. And its used them before during previous crises in the Straits of Hormuz.
Russian submarines are mine capable, placing them close to Submarine bases such as Kings Bay and trapping submarines inside their restricted waters is almost inevitable. They even practice doing so in British waters where they regularly dump sonar buoys to detect British and American vessels leaving Faslane and its waters. An area made for mine warfare.
Some effort was going to be made to make some of the Constellation Class Frigates (now abandoned all bar the ones already being built) and the Littoral Combat Ship fitted with modules, capable of MCM (mine counter measures) operations, but the Littorals proved largely useless at even being warships let alone being fitted with modules that cost too much and lacked all practicality. What little capability the USN did have was MCM helicopters but they were few and far between and now withdrawn.
You would think in this sage of sea drones and aerial drones something might have been adapted, and the US put the Kinefish anti-mine drone into very low production back in 2019. Rumor has it they may have been used in the straits of Hormuz but there’s no indication they had any success if they were deployed. The very fact the drones were put into very low production (expect less than ten per year if that) shows you this was not a high priority project. And thats the real problem, nobody has ever taken the mine threat as seriously as they should have – and they still don’t.
Talk of a larger MCV – mine counter measures vehicle naval drone has been going on for years – but that was designed for the modules that never happened on the LCS.
Another major factor has been the whittling down of the US Marine Corps and its landing ship/assault ship capabilities. They’re not what they used to be. When the fleet first deployed to the Middle East there was no Marine contingent and no ships. Later on 4,500 marines were shipped out with around 3,500 deployed as the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit on USS Tripoli (LHA-7) and later still another 2,200 of the 11th MEU on the USS Boxer which was described as a three ship Amphibious Ready Group. The USS Orleans (LPD-18, Landing Platform Dock) (image below was part of that group). I’ve been on one of these and they’re extraordinary ships, seeing the dock system work is fascinating.
Even so, these forces which are considerable in some ways (the Hornet class USS Boxer below)
and the USS Tripoli (below) are a fine site with plenty of air power, but they’re big targets for missiles and drones operating in tight waters with mines ever present. Could they successfully land and support enough men to take Qeshm island – which is essentially a barren rock with no cover, against determined Iranian resistance – and then sustain that occupation without high casualties?
The fact is the Trump regime is terrified of more casualties – even as they are happening in various US bases from Iranian strikes.
The other aspect is the failure of the Navy to impose an escort regime in the straits. When this all kicked off in the late 80’s the US navy was big enough and capable enough that it had the ships and the means – and the MCM capability to ignore the Iranian threats. They used small boats back then too, but now the fleet is too small to risk such operations. despite degrading Iran’s operational naval and drone/missile forces, there’s no appetite to do the job and the risk to ships is seen as too high. The Trump regime is very conscious of having a US warship hit and flames blazing from its superstructure – it would be a huge PR victory for the Iranians they have no desire to see, and a disaster for Trump’s strong man image of himself.
Its also a point to remember that Bahrain is home to the US 5th Fleet, and has carrier capable berthing, but there’s no way on Gods earth that they would attempt to put even a simple frigate there.
What that means should be a huge wake up call to everyone in every navy everywhere, and this is the deepest irony of the war thats raging. Its a warning to the West in general and to China and anyone else with a large surface navy. Over 24,000 military strikes, and a deeply injured Iran with just a handful of missiles and drones left in relative terms, is preventing the worlds most accomplished deep water blue ocean navy from docking in a base provided by its ally. Its actually forced that navy to never again safely enter the waters of the Persian Gulf.
The US is afraid of what might happen if it engages Iran directly. It’s a long way from home and Iran isn’t. The fact is nobody knows exactly what they have in reserve and what they might do with it. Iran has rendered much of the US surface navy impotent with the exception of its carrier based aircraft. The Air Force struggles with the basing and dispersal of its assets because Russia and China are providing up to date targeting information. We’re in a world where even a deeply injured and largely technologically isolated, heavily sanctioned country has managed to pull off a remarkable feat that the most flexible military power on Earth has no clear idea what to do next.
The people who have planned and managed the US Navy over the last 26 years have failed it. They let it atrophy even as they spoke the words demanding a 355 ship fleet. Its nowhere near that and won’t be for years if its even possible – or even the right thing to do given drone advances.
The US started this and it’s not going to end until they leave. It’s a demonstration that military power isn’t everything, and that force doesn’t always get you what you want. Indeed it can make things far worse. Both America and Russia are facing that reality. Its almost an extraordinary coincidence that both of the former super powers have had to learn their military capabilities are not what they thought they were – and the one budding superpower wannabe may have spent billions on a fleet that is potentially completely unsuitable for the war it built its fleet to fight.
Iran and Ukraine have taught us all huge lessons – in decades to come the history books will show us this was the start of a totally new age of warfare.
America has learnt its power projection is indeed vast and unprecedented, but it hasn’t achieved anything like it wanted using it. There was no plan and no strategy and there still isn’t. Russia is learning the hard way that it’s a spent force and faces defeat, despite all the money and resources it’s squandered on a pointless adventure. China puts up a brave face but while it has a powerful military it lacks any experience in using it and it could just as easily be a bamboo tiger, as the country faces chronic environmental and economic problems, even it barely knows how to handle.
We live in an age where when a military force like the US Navy cannot fashion the safe passage of oil through the Straits of Hormuz, then nobody can.
We all need to review our own ideas, our own security and face the fact that war is changing faster than we seem capable of appreciating. Few know how fast it’s moving – most of them are in Ukraine and Iran. Imagine if Iran had the backing and support that Ukraine has – what it could do doesn’t bear thinking about. We are fortunate that neither Russia or China are willing or in a position to back it to such a level.
The Analyst
militaryanalyst.bsky.social
The Military Analyst 
I guess I am left with only two comments
1 The Navy as the rest of the U.S. Military is fighting the last war still to this day.
2 They suffer from the NIH (pronounced like Nye, Nevada) syndrome which is if “Not Invented Here” it cannot possibility be good.
I saw all of that as a contracting officer in the U.S. Military before I retired. Nothing has been learned.
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A harsh read. And I don’t think it’s just surface Naval power that’s a concern; other branches of our militaries haven’t smelt the coffee either. Poland ordered another a load of tanks last year on top of its 180 tank order in 2022 and we have yet to see what damage a submerged drone will do (in the event of war) around New London or Murmansk
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So the USA has no Mine Sweepers but the Ukranians do. Remind me again who has the cards !!!!
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Thank you TA. The one fact that crossed my mind is that Ukraine’s navy has virtually no ships and is winning the war started by Russia. They wouldn’t thank the US for a Trump Class Battleship even as a gift! Will it get built anyway? I doubt that very much. As Steve says “Not Invented Here Syndrome”. The Pentagon will hang on to their cards for another couple of years, the then Orange Idiot will be gone and they’ll be in recovery mode for decades to come.
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That’s stark analysis. Objectively, laid out like that, it’s difficult (if not impossible) to imagine an alternate conclusion.
In relatively closed spaces – such as the Baltic; the Black Sea; the Mediterranean; the Red Sea; the Persian Gulf and others, surface ships today are relatively easy targets – especially when the opponent uses an armada of drones that are disproportionately cheaper, faster, and highly maneuverable. Add a swarm of cheap airborne drones, and it’s a numbers game. Add surface drones that fire small missiles over relatively short range, and a ship has little chance.
In open ocean, navies still likely have their place, but it isn’t what it was previously. Naval strategy needs some serious rethinking. Nothing is invisible anymore; satellites see all.
When you add the last three weeks of Ukrainian focus on closing the Sea of Azov, and Russia’s absolute impotence in countering it, the Houthis can wreak havoc over the Red Sea, and the IGRC can close the Hormuz Straight at will. Xi Jinping should be very careful. China has enjoyed great economic development from the deliberate economic catastrophe that Mao wrought. It was made possible by investment from and trade with the west. Its power is built on that economic might. China has not yet “potted the black”. Russia has; the USA appears to have, if not self-destructed, certainly blown its foot off.
China could blockade Taiwan, but it’s unlikely to defeat Taiwan – and certainly not easily. Taiwan is geographically and topologically difficult. China would also likely suffer an unforeseen backlash that causes a version of Russia’s current economic implosion. China’s demographics make it highly vulnerable. Some 70% of the PLA are children of the One Child Policy era. They carry parents & grandparents; wives; children of their own. China is developing robots as its solution to a pending problem. It also suffers from the problem Russia has – national delusion created by state propaganda. Children are taught versions of history that suit the CCP narrative – seeds of truth mixed with myths that create fallacy. Young Chinese steeped in Nationalism built on fallacy. Nothing reliably goes to plan in war.
We’ve seen how Ukrainians protest against the dismissal of Federov. Rightly or wrongly – and only history will say eventually – the government has to at least consider its people’s wishes. That situation is doubtless more complex than meets the eye, but people are free to voice opinions.
Russia ploughs on regardless, with failing strategies, and its corruption thrives. People are bewildered by long gas queues and bankruptcies. Soldiers (or untrained civilians) are sent forth to die, with little chance of achieving any rational objective.
Trump followed his impulse. He liked Netanyahu. His son in-law has close personal ties to Netanyahu. Sound impulse control is imperative in geopolitics, but especially in warfare. Trump must have the impulse control of a chimpanzee to have launched this war, all things considered.
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i guess Trump doesn’t see any threat because the Iranian Navy is defeated. Welcome to the real world. Hopefully the Naval commanders are brighter than the Commander in Chief or there will be dreadful consequences for the American Navy.
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With the Retard in Chief in charge and Pirate Pete as the Department of War, the USN quietly ushered out it’s remaining four actual minesweepers from the gulf.
The US Navy decommissioned Middle East minesweepers last year. Here’s what they did.
There was no replacement. The vessels nominated as stand-ins are simply not capable of doing the job.
This actually started when Bill Clinton started the military draw down. Shipyards closed never to re-open and skilled staff retired without replacement. Industry and jobs moved to China, Mexico, wherever people like Trump and his buddies could squeeze the most profit.
The 80 staff who worked in the Whirlaway waste disposal factory in Los Angeles saw their machinery and jobs parceled up and shipped to China. They probably found new jobs but who knows? It was a good product, not too expensive and proudly ‘Made in USA’. The Irwin saw blade factory in Wellsford, New Zealand, suffered the same fate. So did the Record Vice factory in Sheffield. Iron mills in the UK all fell out of British ownership. The nameless faceless corporates that run these strategic trades don’t care.
They don’t care that the USN cannot refit it’s Navy AND build a new Nuclear submarine.
They don’t care that the UK MoD cannot build new ships, tanks, guns, small arms, or even ammunition for those. The skilled engineers, boilermakers, toolmakers, gasfitters, welders, and technicians who lost their jobs and retired have no one to replace them.
No one alive knows how to build an new missile silo or even how the old ones were built. In the recent times the few remaining skilled US shipbuilders have been transferred to build new subs because no one else can. Forget about scheduled refits.
All this while the politicians forgot to care.
So there’s no minesweepers and no capacity to build them. Ukraine has the cards.
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