POLICING THOUGHT: RUSSIA PLANS AN EXIT

We have seen Russia move from Communism to relative freedom and free speech in the 1990’s. Then Putin took over and slowly but surely tightened the rules on the information that you could find for yourself.

The state wanted to control the message and reduce what it saw as harmful views developing. The media space became ever more powerful and shaped towards controlling what you as an individual could see, the narrative designed to ensure you had a particular view – the government view – of what was going on in the world. It was immensely successful. Russia had never been in a position where TV ownership was so high and state messaging gets through to everyone.

The advent of social media from 2006 and its boom in 2007 with the advent of smart phones was a struggle at first for the state to get its message across. Over the following 7 years – by the time of the Crimea occupation and the public protests in Ukraine, they’d mastered the format.

However the whole thing was about control of information- making sure Russians saw what the state wanted them to see. By this stage it was also being used to ensure that foreign users and consumers were also informed of Russias point of view. News apps like RT were exceptionally well written and delivered in a style that made it reasonable and easy to understand what Russia was saying. In my line of work it was regularly read because it was a great way to understand what they were really trying to get across and the messages we might use to counter it. It’s an extremely powerful tool of the state.

By now the influence peddling through social media was a scourge on western society. It tipped Brexit the wrong way by just enough, it changed the outcome of the 2016 US elections.

Inside Russia however Putin’s regime was still uncomfortable with a plethora of western sites that allowed too much of an alternate view – YouTube was widely used by most Russians under 45, WhatsApp and the rapidly rising Telegram, Instagram were all deeply entrenched.

Young people built influencer businesses based on them, E-commerce flourished. Despite the government narrative at home and in the news Russians could still see and consume an alternate point of view.

And then came the SMO. From day one the government began to throttle YouTube so that video of the war from the Ukrainian perspective weren’t available. Using YouTube became increasingly difficult even with VPN’s until it was crushed completely by early 2024.

Censorship laws were introduced and they were aimed at stopping individuals from criticising the army or government policy on the SMO. These laws were designed to stop individuals complaining or protesting and punishment awaited. They controlled free speech and progressively that speech has been heavily curtailed.

It’s now taken a much darker and deeper turn. What’s caused this is hard to ascertain but there are several aspects.

Firstly straight up paranoia. authoritarian governments are always on the look out for even the slightest hint of the possibility someone is out to get them. A word out of place, a tone of voice, it’s enough to set them off. Paranoia is infectious, its soul sapping and it’s stressful. You make bad judgment calls and things spiral.

Secondly you’re trying to shape the environment for something that’s going to be hugely unpopular – you need to not just control what people say or might do in reaction, but what they think so it doesn’t turn into an action that’s against the state’s interests.

I suspect it’s 25% of the first and 75% of the second.

Putin and his government are up to something. The decision to close down Telegram which affected the military so incredibly badly and has clearly had a huge impact on the frontlines – coupled to the loss of Starlink- it’s been devastating. The impact has been immense almost orders of magnitude more than Ukraine could possibly have wished for.

The government must have known the impact it would have but I suspect that’s where paranoia swung the balance of the argument. That and an acceptance it would not be needed long term.

Telegram was also the only way the home front had any contact with the military front. Fundraising for relatives on the front to get the stuff they needed was incredibly important and common. That link in life to home mattered. Now nobody has any contact. It’s demoralising for both sides of the family.

Expunging Telegram has also stopped home users seeing and hearing what the military thinks. The government has now begun widespread stop and search efforts around Russia where your phone is physically searched for banned apps. If you have them it’s major fines and even court action. It’s designed not to examine everyone’s phones but frighten everyone into deleting the apps just in case.

The government is no longer satisfied with controlling what you might say. It wants to control what you think. You’re only going to see and hear what the government wants you to see and hear and you will believe.

That’s the theory but it doesn’t really work this far down the track of the war. That’s the big mistake of this policy. If they had started down this path before the war, say in 2020, they would have blocked information on what people now already know.

They know the casualty figures are very high. Z-bloggers have said they’re of the belief they exceed 1,000,000 and they do. All of Russia has been affected or knows someone who’s been affected. This is impossible to hide. The scale is simply to vast. When what is in reality close to 1% of the population goes missing people notice.

They see the inflation, the shortages and even more in the past year the damage. Who can miss two mile high palls of black smoke drifting for twenty miles and blotting out the sun? Let alone the smell as refineries burn and factories explode.

They experience the shortages and the fact that despite their high pay it’s costing 38% of it to eat. Many are struggling with debts they can’t pay and a system that’s ruthlessly trying to make them. Controlling their thoughts about that is impossible.

The war has gone on too long and the propaganda is now stale. Daily reality doesn’t match. They already know enough to discount what TV and radio say.

And that’s lead to something unexpected in the past few months, a noticeable increase in criticism of the administrations running of the war, and especially the economy. Even Solyov has made comments about the wars purpose. On state TV. And that’s got to be part of a shaping exercise.

It’s either that, or these people are so fed up they feel they have to say something before it’s too late and they don’t care about the consequences. But when state propagandists, the Bank of Russia governor, and now the state Duma start saying things I can’t help but feel this is about ending the war.

I have a gut feeling that Putin has seen the writing on the wall and he knows he has to end this before it ends him. He’s paranoid but strategic, he has a knack of blaming other people and getting away with it.

Ending the war needs pressure and shaping and laying the groundwork for an explanation that can save face on the one hand and portray the government- namely Putin, for bringing the whole thing to what will be seen as a successful conclusion.

I think he sees the tide has changed against him and he has to act. But it’s a long process to convince the people and the military that it’s the right thing to do. Many are deeply invested – as is Putin – and I have no doubt that he’s already promising round 2 in a few years time – only this time they will have rebuilt the army and learned lessons.

All he has to do is get Russian oil back on sale and unhindered by the war and keep the factories running and he can start rebuilding the economy, as he prepares for the next round. Even small improvements from increased income will please the masses. If it’s managed right and everyone does what he wants them to do. If he controls what they think and stops them saying anything they’ll tire and bend to the inevitable.

Some think that Putin’s character is to double down. He’s tried that and it’s gone nowhere. His survival instinct is stronger.

50 years of studying these Russians and their way of doing things tells me nothing happens by accident. This outburst of free opinions is a tactic in a wider strategic plan. Create the reasons to end the war, look like the victor in a tough fight and say what you ended up with was a major victory over western imperialism and NATO. Stop the economy from collapsing, use oil money to re-float it and sustain the war factories so that collapse doesn’t bring disaster.

I just don’t believe there’s not some plan. They always have a plan. Only once have things not gone to plan – the fall of the Soviet Union. And that was because Gorbachev didn’t have one. It got out of control. Putin isn’t such a fool, he will shape this narrative his way.

I think that process has already begun.

Of course I could be completely wrong. Maybe Russia is actually coming apart at the seams. Yet when the state controls the means of transmission of this information and these opinions? It seems oddly suspicious.

We’ll have to wait and see.

The Analyst

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