The past couple of weeks have been even more significant than anyone imagined they could be. We have been witnessing the rolling reality of Russian decline, now so clear that a blind man could see it. It’s becoming a perpetual case of exponential failures and defeats that Russia neither wants to see, or can even seemingly comprehend is happening to it. Putin did not expect this back in 2022. The country that his army had nearly crushed and was once lobbing 60,000 122mm rounds a day at, against a desperately depleted, but utterly determined army, is now sending weapons all across Russia to destroy its military and its industry. Russias army is beyond stalled, its weekly losses running at around 8,500 men. Its vehicular losses of all types are staggeringly high. Ukrainian drones are so frighteningly ubiquitous Russian soldiers are afraid to even move.
There is a real possibility that this Russian war, already far longer than any Russian war since 1800, is going to see more Russian combat casualties than WW2. By this time next year that will be the reality.
The determination Russia shows in attacking Ukrainian civilians is wasted effort. I know it’s cold and sounds heartless but no matter how many children they kill and shopping centers and first responders they murder, it will never win them the war. One strike last week is said to have cost $242m. For what? What shift in the strategic drift of this war toward Russian defeat did it achieve? Nothing. It’s a desperate policy they can employ when they have absolutely nothing else to use. It tells us they’re not done with the war and they will keep going. If they choose to, let them. It’s dollars that aren’t being spent on air defences and troop supplies. Its resources diverted away from where the war will eventually be decided. And we can now see – I think we all know it, despite the fact it’s far from over, Russia is going to lose.
Last week another major geopolitical defeat was laid out for Putin to see. Sweden, which we should remember was neutral before Putins attack on Ukraine drew it and Finland into NATO, a clear demonstration of Putin’s strategic incompetence, agreed to sell Ukraine probably one of the most significantly capable European combat aircraft of modern times.
Its unique qualities are essential for Ukraine and its air strategy. 20 of the latest Grippen’s will be delivered, paid for by the EU loan mechanism. On top of that 16 older models will be gifted by Sweden. It’s even more comprehensive than that, because the package includes upgrades and weapons for the 16, and a whole raft of ongoing support and maintenance for the entire fleet. Added to the F-16’s and the Mirage-2000’s plus the Mig-29’s and other Russian legacy aircraft, Russia is now faced with a Ukrainian Air Force that is becoming quietly more confident and more capable every day, having a direct effect on the persecution of the war and the removal of the invaders.
As Russias economy visibly falters and the number of critics willing to publicly speak out increase daily – a sure sign that the system is weakening, that someone in power is opening the way for these criticisms to be aired, Putin seems to be unconcerned. Don’t believe it for a minute. The army might be lying about what it’s doing, but there are too many other ways to verify the drone damage across Russia. Ukraine delivered a stunning first day sound and light show to the SPIEF – St Petersburg International Economic Forum. Black palls of smoke in clear blue skies demonstrated complete Ukrainian air superiority as it attacked the oil export terminals again, along with many other targets. Every delegate could see what was happening and they know who was responsible. Despite the loathsome intent of the Trump regime who also sent a delegate, perhaps they can report how they can see the vivid and spectacular Ukrainian demonstration, and the humiliation it brings to Putin’s home city, let alone the man and his closest comrades who almost all originated from there.
The SPIEF conference itself has become a trap. Putin usually speaks. How can he do that unless it’s a tongue in cheek exercise pretending everything is normal. It feels like the moment when Nazi Foreign Minister von Ribbentrop took his Soviet counterpart Molotov, to the foreign ministry basement during an RAF air raid on Berlin in late 1940 (a raid actually planned by the RAF to make exactly this demonstration to Molotov). Ribbentrop, ever the boasting optimist told Molotov the British were defeated. Molotov asked, ‘then whose bombs are those falling outside?’ Who says we can’t learn from history?
The removal of Russian bank governor Elvira Niabulina from the speakers roster also says a great deal. She’s been painfully honest before at this very meeting – not something the Kremlin wants to see, but everyone will know why she’s been pulled. That hardly helps Russias cause, none of the delegates except Trump’s, are stupid.
With Russias deficit targeted at just $48 billion for the year, and having passed $80 billion by the end of April, the trajectory of government spending is clear. They’re looking at $240 billion by year end and demands from the military for yet more money when everyone else is telling Putin to reduce expenditure, before its too late, seem almost rampant.
Thats not how Putin wants to frame it. There’s been a long standing theory and I have stated it many times, now the military are using it as part of their rational for more money: if expenditure is cut, orders dry up, factories close and thousands are thrown out of work = economic collapse. But if they keep spending that won’t happen. There’s even been suggestion of cutting pensions and state payouts – except even the Duma said the pensions were already below the survival line. Putin seems to support the idea though, feeling that extending the war and possibly reversing what Ukraine is doing and regaining the initiative, may be the answer – to his survival.
What Putin has failed to see – and the military with him, is that the game is now being fought to the end. The tide has turned. Russia has nothing it can use now to change the curve. It had that at the beginning and misused its forces and its advantage in a way that suggests the generals thought it was 1986 not 2026. No amount of lashing out in frustration and thinking how cleaver they are will stop the fuel shortages, restore the income from oil and gas, or provide some other lifeline.
The facts are simple, no matter the export income, even if they have risen by 32% in value over last month, the actual volume exported is minimal compared to 2021, the monetary income is nothing like enough to support the grotesque costs of the war, and the more the demands of the war cost, the deeper they sink into the trap. It’s a sunk cost fallacy. The economic damage is now visible across Russia, as the increasing fuel shortages are quickly demonstrating.
Ukrainian strategy has been consistent and deliberate. It’s been modified tactically to bring about the strategic goal, and thats what they will continue to do until this is over. Collapse is Russias ultimate end – the front lines will eventually weaken so badly it will be impossible to stop even a small effort by the Ukrainians to break them. All Ukraine has to do is more of the same, at increasing intensity, and it will win.
Russia is caught in a trap of its own making. The harder it wriggles to get out of it the tighter the trap becomes, it can save itself a little longer, but every attempt they try exhausts them all the more, eventually there’s nothing left that can save them.
The Analyst
militaryanalyst@bsky.social
The Military Analyst 
Cleaver = Clever?
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Thank you.
I’ve been reading most, possibly all the essays published on your website.
They are one of my two most important sources two understand what’s going on.
This last one leaves me with a question:
I see Ukraine is on the winning side.
But Russia still has nuclear weapons.
The whole advantage Ukraine has gained in the conventional war wouldn’t matter if they were used, right?
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If Putin was stupid enough to make a nuclear attack on Ukraine that would hasten his demise. First the winds from Ukraine would take a nuclear cloud right into Putin’s front garden. “The prevailing wind direction in Ukraine is predominantly from the west and northwest.”
Second, the response from NATO would be overwhelming!!
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I doubt it.
I believe it would be alright for Putin to contaminate parts of Russia if it serves himself.
Regarding NATO, I’m sure Trump would chicken out. So what would the rest do? What means are there to respond in an overwhelming manner? Even including the US, which used a considerable part of it’s weapons stockpile in Iran and achieved very little.
Don’t get me wrong. My conclusion is not to give in to dictators and do the appeasement bullshit. Not at all.
I strongly advocate for the strongest military support of Ukraine to defend itself and to destroy Putins Russia.
But I ask myself: What effective response can Ukraine, Europe (or maybe NATO, but no because of Trump) give to a devastating nuclear attack? What would this overwhelming, effective respond look like?
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Thank you for your response. There are of course no finite answers or responses to your comments. We could both be wrong or right on this. I do believe that if a substantial nuclear attack by Putin were indeed possible or likely, it would have happened by now. Let’s face it they have held the planet to ransom since 1949, so why hasn’t it happened? Probably because their nuclear arsenal hasn’t been well maintained. Regarding a NATO response, it wouldn’t need to be nuclear, and if a response was required by NATO the Orange Idiot could easily be ignored. I sure decisions have already been made by NATO what to do should Putin use a single nuclear weapon and Trump wouldn’t be asked for his permission. In fact it would probably bring about the end of NATO in its current form which would be no bad thing long term.
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Mamy thanks TA, your well deserved rest clearly served you well. It took a while, but Zelensky’s leadership has finally rid Ukraine of the Soviet way of doing things, never to return!!
Slava Ukraini 👍💪🦩
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Thank you T/A. I am very optimistic about the outcome but I am wondering what will stop them in the future and what demands will be made of them when they are finally defeated?
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And that is the big question for the post war era!
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I think the Ukrainian attack during the St Petersburg International Economic Forum marks the end of the Putin regime. It was too public a display of complete Ukrainian military supremacy. Russia has lost the war and everyone can see it. Its only a matter of time before Putin is defenestrated. The question now is what comes next, who will succeed Putin and will Ukraine demand full withdrawal as the price of peace or will they settle for a cease fire along the contact line
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I posted this in the podcast episode of the same article, but I guess more people read this one.
Finally the JAS 39 Gripen to Ukraine!!! First a gift (GIFT) of 16 of the previous C/D version, which I guess Sweden is phasing out in favour of the E/F.
By the way, the C and E have one seat for the pilot only, while the D and F have two seats. D and F are usually used for training, but can also be used to have an extra set of eyes on the instruments and fire buttons.
It’s been known for years that Ukrainian pilots have been in Sweden training on the Gripen(just as before announcement of the French Mirage), so it won’t be as with the F-16 announcement that Ukraine has to wait years for the pilots to learn how the plane works. They already do.
Also, already a year ago, at least one of Sweden’s military aid package included parts for repairs of the Gripen, so Ukrainian mechanics probably already know the plane as well. Now it’s mostly up to Sweden and Ukraine to plan the logistics of how to get the 16 jets to Ukraine, and how to store them there. It’s said early next year, but who knows, it might be tomorrow…
Then, 20 more as a start, with an option to buy was it 120 or 150 more? And if Canada plays it’s cards right, many of those will be made in Canada and not just Sweden, so they might pop out of the factory floor faster.
Some of you might know that I’m Swedish, so for me personally, this is a huge thing. Finally the Swedish 4.5G fighters will help Ukraine defending their sky.
Another thing… if(hopefully) the Gripen performs as we hope it will in Ukraine, other buyers might come knocking on the door. It’s currently in Sweden, Hungary, South Africa, and especially in Brazil, who have their own production line(like the one planned for Canada. If they decides on the Gripen). Others might be interested in a reasonable priced, easy to maintain, and cheap to fly, fighter jet, that has proven itself to kick Russian butts. It’s easier to sell a proven concept than a theoretical one.
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The Tempest programme is hiring problems within the UK, Italy and Japan partnership. With Sweden clearly positive experience, perhaps they should be approached to be involved in the Tempest project.
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They ruled it out some time ago – they were the first option.
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Is it known why Sweden ruled it out?
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They thought it would undermine the independence of their industry and take up too much resource.
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The battlefield carnage count escalated markedly from 30 May – 12,550 at nearly 1400/day. 9,560 so far in the 1st week of June. The 19 highest vehicle loss days have all occurred since mid-April. Since 30 May, they’re losing an average of 424/day.
The vehicle losses imply that Ukraine has almost total drone coverage of the kill zone and the logistics routes. The carnage along the Crimean land bridge to Mariupol highlights Russia’s battlefront problem.
Russia is in for an unimaginable shock this year, and a horror decade ahead.
It defies logic that western politicians believe that the war can be resolved by any kind of agreement with the Russian Federation. It might reduce or even pause the fighting, but it will neither shorten the war; nor end it, IMHO.
Russia will become increasingly desperate as its economy breaks down and the rampant inflation moves to hyperinflation. It is likely that there will be frantic oligarch ally shifting, as the power structures creak and reformation become inevitable. Once they realise that they can’t survive alone, but can’t trust any other oligarch, the games will be brutal.
The only workable solution to the war is unconditional surrender by Russia, and massive political reform within whatever form the post-Putin era oblasts decide they want – subject to Ukrainian and probably European veto. Europe will need to play a key role in the post RF world, but Ukraine will need to have a leading voice until there is little or no prospect of a recurrence. Europe really needs to step into the void the US has left.
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