Pip: The Military Analyst has a way of making a strategic collapse feel almost inevitable in hindsight — which is either reassuring or deeply unsettling, depending on where you're sitting.
Mara: This episode follows The Analyst's assessment of where the war in Ukraine stands right now — Russian losses, economic strain, and a significant aircraft deal that's quietly reshaping the air war.
Pip: Let's start with the trap Russia built for itself.
Russia's Deepening Strategic Trap
Mara: The core argument here is that Russian decline has passed the point of ambiguity — the losses are measurable, the economic trajectory is visible, and the strategic options have narrowed to almost nothing.
Pip: The Analyst puts it plainly, framing the scale of what Ukraine has become: "The country that his army had nearly crushed and was once lobbing 60,000 122mm rounds a day at, against a desperately depleted, but utterly determined army, is now sending weapons all across Russia to destroy its military and its industry."
Mara: That reversal is the whole argument in one sentence. Weekly Russian casualties are running around 8,500 men, vehicular losses are described as staggeringly high, and Ukrainian drones have become so pervasive that Russian soldiers are reportedly afraid to move.
Pip: And the expensive missile strikes on Ukrainian civilians? The Analyst is blunt — one strike last week reportedly cost $242 million, and the strategic return was zero. That's not a war-winning tool; it's a signal that nothing else is available.
Mara: On the economic side, Russia's deficit was targeted at $48 billion for the year and had already passed $80 billion by end of April. The projected trajectory puts year-end spending around $240 billion, with the military demanding more while other voices are warning it's already too late to pull back.
Pip: There's a grim internal logic to that — cut spending, factories close, workers lose jobs, economic collapse accelerates. Keep spending, same destination, just slower. Russia built the cage and then climbed in.
Mara: The Sweden-Ukraine Gripen deal lands in this context. Twenty of the latest Gripens, paid through the EU loan mechanism, plus sixteen older models gifted outright — with upgrades, weapons, and full fleet support included. Layered onto the F-16s and Mirage-2000s already in service, Ukraine's air force is described as becoming "quietly more confident and more capable every day."
Pip: And at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Ukrainian strikes on oil export terminals produced, as the post notes, black smoke over clear blue skies — visible to every delegate, including the one Trump sent along.
Mara: The removal of central bank governor Nabiullina from the speakers roster is read as another tell. She's been honest about the numbers at this forum before. Her absence signals the Kremlin doesn't want that honesty aired — which, as the post notes, every non-Trump delegate will understand perfectly.
Mara: The through-line is consistency — Ukrainian strategy has stayed deliberate while Russia's options have contracted with each passing month.
Pip: At some point "more of the same" stops being a holding pattern and becomes the winning move. We'll see what that looks like next time.
The Military Analyst 
Interesting try but I find your previous articles easier to read. Keep up the good work
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I like the podcast concept, so it’s possible to listen to your article while doing other things, but it felt a bit short.
Besides that. Finally the JAS 39 Gripen to Ukraine!!! First a gift (GIFT) of 16 of the previous C/D version, which I guess Sweden is phasing out in favour of the E/F. By the way, the C and E have one seat for the pilot only, while the D and F have two seats. D and F are usually used for training, but can also be used to have an extra set of eyes on the instruments and fire buttons.
It’s been known for years that Ukrainian pilots have been in Sweden training on the Gripen(just as before announcement of the French Mirage), so it won’t be as with the F-16 announcement that Ukraine has to wait years for the pilots to learn how the plane works. They already do. Also, already a year ago, at least one of Sweden’s military aid package included parts for repairs of the Gripen, so Ukrainian mechanics probably already know the plane as well. Now it’s mostly up to Sweden and Ukraine to plan the logistics of how to get the 16 jets to Ukraine, and how to store them there. It’s said early next year, but who knows, it might be tomorrow…
Then, 20 more as a start, with an option to buy was it 120 or 150 more? And if Canada plays it’s cards right, many of those will be made in Canada and not just Sweden, so they might pop out of the factory floor faster.
Some of you might know that I’m Swedish, so for me personally, this is a huge thing. Finally the Swedish 4.5G fighters will help Ukraine defending their sky.
Another thing… if(hopefully) the Gripen performs as we hope it will in Ukraine, other buyers might come knocking on the door. It’s currently in Sweden, Hungary, South Africa, and Brazil, who have their own production line(like the one planned for Canada. If they decides on the Gripen). Others might be interested in a reasonable priced, easy to maintain, and cheap to fly, fighter jet, that has proven itself to kick Russian butts. It’s easier to sell a proven concept than a theoretical one.
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I’m not a fan of AI voiced podcasts, I’ve listened to a few and find them somewhat patronising. I typically speed up podcasts to 1.2 or 1.3 if they’re spoken by real people; or 1.8 if it’s AI voiced. There are a lot of you tube AI videos, including some AI-Sarah (Paine) ones. I prefer real-Sarah, because you can’t be sure that AI-Sarah is giving the same version of history; interpretation; or analysis that real-Sarah would.
This one lost me fairly quickly. I prefer to read. If you wrote it, I trust it reflects your opinion – even if you’ve run it through your AI writing assistant. My default assessment would therefore be “it’s vetted by the Analyst post-AI”, if only via speed-reading, which I’m sure you can do.
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I don’t actually use a post writing Ai assistant. They firstly americanize everything and then dumb everything down as if the reader was an idiot.
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I didn’t THINK you did, but IF you did for whatever reason…
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