If you are a Ukrainian on the front lines right now you will tell me that the lack of movement in the lines is just a passing phase. They are seriously concerned that when the Russians – not if – they begin another offensive, then Konstantinivka (which many of them consider has already effectively fallen, like every town before it), will be the first of the rest of the fortress belt.
They genuinely believe that the Russian mobilization, if they’re allowed to pull it off, will result in what has always happened when Russia uses this last resort – a force too large for them to resist, and with few reserves behind them, a Ukrainian male population that doesn’t want to be called up to fight will mean the army runs out of men to resist and Ukraine will fall.
Putin believes it too. Zelensky and his leadership team know it – which is what makes the whole Federov/Syrski saga so painful to have witnessed.
This brings us to Sun Tzu, three thousand years on, his writings are endlessly valuable and each apply as much today as they did then. If you haven’t read and understood The Art of War, you do not understand war at its most fundamental level.
Waging War 3 and 6 state respectively ‘…if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the Sate will not be equal to the strain’, and, ‘There is no instance of a country having benefitted from a long war’.
Ukraine understands this far more than Russia does. Putin has his own reasons for not wanting to believe it – he clings to power no matter what and the state will make sacrifices if he says so, to make sure he stays where he is. If that means a long war he’s fine with it for his own personal ends.
In Attack By Stratagem, Sun Tzu states ‘to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting’.
This is one of the most fundamental principles of war. Break the enemy without fighting him head on, don’t fight him as he might wish to fight you. Its this fundamental policy that Federov sees as the golden rule for the Ukrainian armed forces. The drive to use machines, land drones, sea drones and every type of aerial drone and missile available is the manifestation of that desire.
Article 17 is more obvious and more simple and we all know it even if we don’t always follow it in our daily lives, but in war its critical:
- He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight
- He will win who knows how to handle superior and inferior forces
- He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks
- He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared
- He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovreign
Point 3 has been a big issue in Russia and it’s not exactly been an easy ride in Ukraine either. Syrski and his clique caused a lot of resentment and there’s clearly a lot of reform that’s required in the army generally. Until Ukraine can be of one mind and one unified belief in the field, it’s not a winning force. Federov understands that, Zelensky understands it and so does the new CinC General Drypati – he may have arrived just in time to put things right.
Ukraine needs Federov back to ensure the fundamental belief in the way forward. Zelesnky I believe knows this, he’s waiting for the summer recess to run its course and I think, in the end he will give Federov what he wants – because he has no choice. He is the man they all believe in and Ukraine needs belief more than it needs political obduracy.
The other aspect of this is point 5. Zelesnky keeps informed but as the ‘sovreign’ in this case, he doesn’t interfere in military decision making. Putin used not to, but he’s learned he can’t trust his generals to tell the truth so he gets involved where he shouldn’t. The result is he gets lied to and ignored and his generals just pay him lip service.
In Tactical Dispositions point 4 applies heavily to Russia ‘One may know how to conquer without being able to do it’.
Point 15 is probably the most quoted of all of Sun Tzu’s maxims, ‘Thus it is in war the victorious strategist seeks battle only after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat, first fights and only then looks for victory’.
This is where Robert Brovdi and his Magyar’s Birds, with the blessings and support of Federov before his exit and the agreement of the president, began their 40 Days Campaign, and before that the isolation of Crimea. These efforts are absolutely critical. This is Ukraine’s make or break it effort to penetrate the mind and the psychology of the enemy. While making the reality of the war on the front lines utterly impossible for the Russians to execute their preferred and seemingly only way of fighting, the meat wave of humans thrown into battle backed by bombs, drones and artillery.
Zelensky wants the Russians to consider giving peace a chance, to end the war. Putin is absolutely saying no. He believes that by pushing on with his plans for mobilization Ukraine will be broken. He will not allow the lack of money, the devastation of the oil refineries, the elimination of 49% of the nations retail and supply systems, the frontline logistics, the fuel shortages, the rapidly declining support for him personally, to dissuade him. He believes he must go on, he’s so committed to this now he must either win or die pursuing it.
You might say then ‘what’s the point, Ukraine can’t win against that much of an obstacle?’ The point is it doesn’t have to win against Putin and his determination. Putins biggest failure has always been a strategic blindness to his nations capabilities. He has never taken anyone with him on this journey. The military don’t believe it, but they’ll go with it because they have to, and because those at the top are having the time of their lives with more money and power than they’ve ever experienced. They don’t want it to end – why would they want to win?
The general public are only now seeing with their own eyes that the war is real, not just TV reports from a remote frontline that they could ignore. No petrol in their cars and fuel costing in parity terms the equal of some $30 a gallon and consuming some 40% of their monthly income. Rampant food inflation that leaves them with barely money to pay their rent or mortgage and their car. And it’s getting worse and will keep getting worse until Ukraine breaks them.
Points that really stand out are:
16. The consummate leader cultivates the Moral Law and strictly adheres to method and discipline: thus it is in his power to control success.
This translates as having the moral right on your side, that you do this because it is the right thing to do, that everyone who fights for you knows it and that they behave accordingly. There’s no question that Ukraine has that sewn up. Russia absolutely does not and I think they know it deep down. Putin may have co-opted the church, but people know in their own hearts when they’re fighting for all the wrong reasons, no matter how much they might try to pretend otherwise. Sooner or later that will dawn on them, and as the defeated Germans and Japanese of WW2 soon realized, its a heavy burden to bear and it has far reaching social and political consequences post war.
And then there is point 20. It’s quite possible we’re seeing this bearing fruit inside Russia, no matter what Putin might like to think or pretend, no matter how at this late stage he tries to coerce and blame others for his mistakes:
“The onrush of a conquering force is the onrush of pent-up waters into a chasm a thousand fathoms deep”
As Ukrainian drones increase in number and deliver increasing devastation behind the lines, they must continue to do so. Forty days is just the start, it must go on unhindered, unbroken and in ever increasing volume so that every town and city in Russia sees what is coming for it. Ordinary Russians are the ones to be conscripted, they’re the ones who have to persuaded to protest. The oligarchs must be aware that they need to find a way to break the security around Putin and end him, if they’re to salvage anything out of this.
Ukraine must make Russians lives unbearable, they must hit every valuable factory, power station, military industrial complex, and every security barracks, FSB head quarters and OMON base, they must shatter the security apparatus and the support mechanisms that keep Putin in power. They must break Russia’s economy far more quickly and far more rapidly. And all while they keep the logistics and the frontlines a dire place for any Russian soldier to venture out. They must tear up the mobilization process, shred frontline logistics.
Behind all this lies technology and innovation – and right now the staggering pace of that innovation, the week by week evolution in tactics and strategy are where Ukraine excels. This is a country where a drone can be trialled with a new component one day, feed back received the same night and the modification manufactured and in the field the next. That never happens in the west and it certainly doesn’t happen in Russia. Ukraine is the cutting edge of modern warfare, nobody in the west not the Americans, nobody, can work at this pace. It’s their greatest and most important achievement and it’s the critical edge of keeping ahead.
I could go through every one of Sun Tzu’s principles and show you how they are being applied on both sides – but that would be redundant. It wasn’t the point of this article either.
The point was to remind us that what is making us believe Ukraine is winning is what we see. What we see is an extraordinary campaign of drone warfare the likes of which have never been imagined or seen before. Visually it looks bad for Russia, psychologically it’s making its point, economically the longer it goes on it’s making itself felt. It has a long way to go to overcome the reticence of those who know Putin is taking them on a road to disaster and getting them to do something about him.
The most vital issue for now is that Ukraine stops the mobilization happening in a way that materially affects Russian capabilities to restart an advance. They cannot be permitted to do so. Every last resource that can render the mobilization ineffective is absolutely critical. Ukraine knows what will happen if they fail. Its army knows it will have to retreat and if Russia thinks for a minute it can take mile and the mobilization is working they will not stop. Putin will be justified and things will start to get difficult.
We in the west must not be complacent. Not only must we be ready if Ukraine were, God forbid, to fall. We must pour whatever resources they need into their arsenal now to make sure the strategy they have chosen – which is the right one – doesn’t fail.
The Analyst
militaryanalyst@bsky.social
The Military Analyst 